Trey Lance. Justin Fields. Mac Jones. With each passing day, it becomes more apparent that these guys, like Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson, are going to start this season, and maybe as soon as Week 1. It's a story that we've seen time and time again with first-round quarterbacks.
Coaches play lip service to the idea of incumbent veterans starting. "Jimmy G is our starter," says Kyle Shanahan. "Andy Dalton will be starting Week 1," says Matt Nagy. Bill Belichick doesn't say much, but if he did he'd probably have backed Cam Newton. And then things change, quickly.
To illustrate, I'm dragging out the numbers from the last 10 years (2011-2020). There have been 32 quarterbacks drafted in the first round in that decade. How many of those guys rode the bench for most of their rookie seasons? Quick answer: almost none.
Twenty-two out of 32 (69 percent) started at least 10 games in their rookie seasons. Twenty-six out of 32 (81 percent) started at least 7 games.
Of the remaining 6 players, one (Deshaun Watson) was starting in Week 2, and excelling, but got injured -- that's the only reason he didn't start 15 games.
The other five include two immediate busts (Paxton Lynch and Johnny Manziel), another who never made it to a second NFL contract (Jake Locker), the exception that proves the rule (Patrick Mahomes) and an unknown commodity (Jordan Love).
Bottom line: if you draft a quarterback in the first round, there's an 80 percent chance he'll start at least half the season (and most of them will start double-digit games, which is to say they'll be starting by the end of September more likely than not). The list of first-round quarterbacks from the past decade who don't make that many starts their rookie season is short and undistinguished. Except for Mahomes. We'll see on Love.
Table below shows rookie season stats, including fantasy rank (4-point TD passes, 6 point runs, 1 point for every 20 passing yards). Note that of the nine guys who started at least 15 games in their rookie season, five finished as top 10 fantasy quarterbacks.
| FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS, 2011-2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | GS | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 1 | 2019 | Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 16 | 3722 | 20 | 544 | 4 | 350.5 | 6 |
| 2 | 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 16 | 3782 | 16 | 150 | 2 | 285.8 | 22 |
| 1 | 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 16 | 4042 | 22 | 213 | 6 | 349.4 | 13 |
| 1 | 2012 | Andrew Luck, Ind. | 16 | 4374 | 23 | 255 | 5 | 366.2 | 9 |
| 8 | 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 16 | 3294 | 12 | 211 | 2 | 249.8 | 24 |
| 1 | 2011 | Cam Newton, Car. | 16 | 4051 | 21 | 706 | 14 | 448.9 | 3 |
| 6 | 2020 | Justin Herbert, LAC | 15 | 4336 | 31 | 234 | 5 | 398.2 | 9 |
| 2 | 2012 | Robert Griffin, Was. | 15 | 3200 | 20 | 815 | 7 | 363.5 | 10 |
| 22 | 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Cle. | 15 | 3385 | 14 | 111 | 0 | 235.5 | 25 |
| 10 | 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 14 | 2214 | 12 | 98 | 0 | 168.5 | 27 |
| 1 | 2018 | Baker Mayfield, Cle. | 13 | 3725 | 27 | 131 | 0 | 311.4 | 17 |
| 3 | 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 13 | 2865 | 17 | 138 | 1 | 231.1 | 24 |
| 10 | 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 13 | 2278 | 11 | 138 | 0 | 173.7 | 32 |
| 3 | 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 13 | 2908 | 11 | 419 | 0 | 233.3 | 21 |
| 6 | 2019 | Daniel Jones, NYG | 12 | 3027 | 24 | 279 | 2 | 291.3 | 20 |
| 2 | 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 12 | 2193 | 7 | 248 | 2 | 176.5 | 29 |
| 2 | 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Ten. | 12 | 2818 | 19 | 252 | 2 | 271.2 | 22 |
| 32 | 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Min. | 12 | 2919 | 14 | 209 | 1 | 232.9 | 22 |
| 7 | 2018 | Josh Allen, Buff. | 11 | 2074 | 10 | 631 | 8 | 256.8 | 22 |
| 1 | 2020 | Joe Burrow, Cin. | 10 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | 218.6 | 25 |
| 16 | 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 10 | 1972 | 11 | 186 | 2 | 177.2 | 28 |
| 12 | 2011 | Christian Ponder, Min. | 10 | 1853 | 13 | 219 | 0 | 166.6 | 28 |
| 5 | 2020 | Tua Tagovailoa, Mia. | 9 | 1814 | 11 | 109 | 3 | 165.6 | 34 |
| 15 | 2019 | Dwayne Haskins, Was. | 7 | 1365 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 108.4 | 33 |
| 32 | 2018 | Lamar Jackson, Balt. | 7 | 1201 | 6 | 695 | 5 | 183.6 | 30 |
| 1 | 2016 | Jared Goff, LAR | 7 | 1089 | 5 | 16 | 1 | 82.1 | 37 |
| 12 | 2017 | Deshaun Watson, Hou. | 6 | 1699 | 19 | 269 | 2 | 203.9 | 27 |
| 26 | 2016 | Paxton Lynch, Den. | 2 | 497 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 35.4 | 43 |
| 22 | 2014 | Johnny Manziel, Cle. | 2 | 175 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 17.7 | 53 |
| 10 | 2017 | Patrick Mahomes, K.C. | 1 | 284 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 15.2 | 53 |
| 8 | 2011 | Jake Locker, Ten. | 0 | 542 | 4 | 56 | 1 | 54.7 | 44 |
| 26 | 2020 | Jordan Love, G.B. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -- |
If you're a Bears, Niners or Patriots fan, get ready for those rookie to be starting sooner rather than later. They almost always do.
--Andy Richardson