Jon Gruden is gone, and that will have an adverse effect on the offense of the Raiders. Football is a mental game, and he was the most important decision maker on that franchise. While he didn’t step on the field, he was reasonable for most of the key decisions – drawing up game plans and calling plays.
We seen other teams lose offensive minds in the past, and the results have been notable. The Titans this year, for example, seem to be missing Arthur Smith. Frank Reich’s departure from Philadelphia probably played a big role in that offense declining after that team’s Super Bowl win. The Saints took a step back when Sean Payton was suspended in 2012, and the Falcons cratered after losing offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.
Greg Olson (the coach, not the retired tight end) now becomes the key decision maker for the Raiders. He’s the offensive coordinator, and he’ll be doing a lot more now than he did when Gruden was around. His resume indicates that expectations should be modest.
Olson previously has had control of nine NFL offenses. That is, nine times he’s been a coordinator for teams that had defensive head coaches. (He’s also been a coordinator under head coaches with offensive backgrounds, but I’m leaving those out – since those head coaches were usually calling plays and had more say in decision making.)
Of Olson’s nine previous offenses, all but two ranked in the bottom 10 in scoring. Olson’s best season came in 2015 with Jacksonville, which ranked 14th in scoring. Olson’s Tampa Bay offense ranked 20th in scoring – that was his only other one not in the bottom 10.
Olson hasn’t worked with a lot of good teams. Those 2010 Bucs went 10-6. None of his other teams went better than 6-10. Two thirds of his teams won either 3 or 4 games.
| GREG OLSON OFFENSES (scoring) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Win | Points | Per G | Rk |
| 2004 | Detroit | 6-10 | 296 | 18.5 | 24 |
| 2005 | Detroit | 5-11 | 254 | 15.9 | 28 |
| 2009 | Tampa Bay | 3-13 | 244 | 15.3 | 30 |
| 2010 | Tampa Bay | 10-6 | 341 | 21.3 | 20 |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay | 4-12 | 287 | 17.9 | 27 |
| 2013 | Oakland | 4-12 | 322 | 20.1 | 24 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 3-13 | 253 | 15.8 | 31 |
| 2015 | Jacksonville | 5-11 | 376 | 23.5 | 14 |
| 2016 | Jacksonville | 3-13 | 318 | 19.9 | 25 |
The Raiders aren’t running the ball right now, and on that front, Olson doesn’t look likely to turn things around. Of his previous nine offenses, all but two ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing production. And by “rank” here, I’m using a combination of yards and touchdowns (6 points for TDs, 1 for every 10 yards).
| GREG OLSON OFFENSES (rushing) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Yd/G | Yd/Att | TD | Points | Rk |
| 2004 | Detroit | 111.1 | 4.4 | 7 | 219.7 | 25 |
| 2005 | Detroit | 91.9 | 3.6 | 10 | 207.1 | 23 |
| 2009 | Tampa Bay | 101.7 | 4.0 | 5 | 192.7 | 31 |
| 2010 | Tampa Bay | 125.1 | 4.6 | 9 | 254.1 | 13 |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay | 91.1 | 4.2 | 9 | 199.8 | 30 |
| 2013 | Oakland | 125.0 | 4.6 | 16 | 296.0 | 10 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 77.5 | 3.7 | 4 | 148.0 | 32 |
| 2015 | Jacksonville | 92.1 | 4.2 | 5 | 177.3 | 30 |
| 2016 | Jacksonville | 101.9 | 4.2 | 8 | 211.1 | 25 |
Olson’s offenses have put up slightly better passing stats. But not great. He’s been connected with only one offense that finished with above-average overall production (again, blending yards and TDs using fantasy scoring). Olson was the coordinator for the Jaguars when they somehow got 35 TD passes out of Blake Bortles. Five of Olson’s offenses finished with bottom-10 passing numbers, and the other 3 were below average.
| GREG OLSON OFFENSES (passing) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pct | Yd/G | TD | Int | Points | Rk |
| 2004 | Detroit | 56.4% | 195.3 | 19 | 13 | 426.4 | 25 |
| 2005 | Detroit | 57.1% | 188.8 | 15 | 18 | 392.1 | 28 |
| 2009 | Tampa Bay | 53.2% | 195.9 | 18 | 29 | 421.4 | 25 |
| 2010 | Tampa Bay | 61.9% | 222.8 | 26 | 6 | 512.4 | 17 |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay | 62.1% | 239.9 | 17 | 24 | 485.8 | 20 |
| 2013 | Oakland | 57.4% | 226.8 | 17 | 20 | 464.9 | 28 |
| 2014 | Oakland | 58.0% | 204.7 | 22 | 16 | 459.5 | 24 |
| 2015 | Jacksonville | 58.5% | 276.8 | 35 | 18 | 652.8 | 6 |
| 2016 | Jacksonville | 58.9% | 245.3 | 24 | 16 | 536.5 | 17 |
The Raiders are on the ropes right now, having gotten locked down pretty good by the Chargers in a Monday night game, then falling flat against the Bears on Sunday. Derek Carr (pictured) passed for more than 380 yards in each of his first three games, but he’s sputtered in his last two. To me, I don’t see Carr and this offense getting back to the kind of elite numbers we were seeing in those first three weeks.
—Ian Allan