The Packers will have to play without their featured wide receiver, and they’re on the road against a good defense. You would think that would derail their offense. But Green Bay has played without Davante Adams many times in the past, and the decline hasn’t been as severe as you might think.
The Packers, in fact, are 6-0 in the games Adams has missed since Matt LaFleur showed up, and their offense has played well in every one of those games. That includes a win at New Orleans last year, and a win against a 3-1 Dallas team in 2019. Green Bay also won at Kansas City, but some of the shine came off that game when Patrick Mahomes missed it.
Nonetheless, there’s been way more offensive pop from the Packers in these games than you might expect. Aaron Rodgers has thrown at least 3 TDs in his last four such games.
| RODGERS WITHOUT DAVANTE ADAMS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
| at Dall. | W 34-24 | 22 | 34 | 238 | 0 | 0 |
| Det. | W 23-22 | 24 | 39 | 283 | 2 | 1 |
| Oak. | W 42-24 | 25 | 31 | 429 | 5 | 0 |
| at K.C. | W 31-24 | 23 | 33 | 305 | 3 | 0 |
| at N.O. | W 37-30 | 21 | 32 | 283 | 3 | 0 |
| Atl. | W 30-16 | 27 | 33 | 327 | 4 | 0 |
Aaron Jones has averaged 125 run-rec yards in these six games, with 9 TDs.
| A.JONES WITHOUT DAVANTE ADAMS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Rushing | Receiving | Yards | TD |
| at Dall. | W 34-24 | 19-107-4 | 7-75-0 | 182 | 4 |
| Det. | W 23-22 | 11-47-0 | 4-13-0 | 60 | 0 |
| Oak. | W 42-24 | 12-50-0 | 4-33-1 | 83 | 1 |
| at K.C. | W 31-24 | 13-67-0 | 7-159-2 | 226 | 2 |
| at N.O. | W 37-30 | 16-69-1 | 2-17-0 | 86 | 1 |
| Atl. | W 30-16 | 15-71-0 | 5-40-1 | 111 | 1 |
The results haven’t been as good with the wide receivers. Allen Lazard has had the two best games, but he’s not playing either this week.
| BEST WIDE RECEIVERS WITHOUT DAVANTE ADAMS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp | Result | Player | No | Yards | TD |
| at Dall. | W 34-24 | Geronimo Allison | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Det. | W 23-22 | Allen Lazard | 4 | 65 | 1 |
| Oak. | W 42-24 | M. Valdes-Scantling | 2 | 133 | 1 |
| at K.C. | W 31-24 | Allen Lazard | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| at N.O. | W 37-30 | Allen Lazard | 6 | 146 | 1 |
| Atl. | W 30-16 | M. Valdes-Scantling | 4 | 45 | 0 |
Every game is different, of course, and the degree of difficulty goes up a notch this time. It’s on the road on a short week, and Arizona has played well defensively, allowing the fewest points in the league. The Cardinals have played four notable offenses, and they’ve allowed only 2 TDs in all but one of those games (the Vikings scored 3 TDs at Arizona in Week 2, but just 2 TDs each for Titans, Browns and Rams). The Packers also have been trying to work their offensive line into shape.
For me, my preference would be to start players from other offenses. In general, I’m not excited about the Packers in this Thursday night game. But the numbers suggest one should be careful in being too quick to disregard them.
—Ian Allan