CINCINNATI (vs. Cleveland)
The Bengals were stunned by the lowly Jets, but the offensive numbers were there: 346 yards, 4 TDs and 31 points. The Browns are capable of playing shutdown defense, but ...
... their best games have been against lesser offenses. The three best offenses Cleveland has faced (Kansas City, the Chargers and Arizona) all scored 33-plus points and at least 4 TDs. Cincinnati maybe isn't quite at that level, but they're not far off, averaging 28 points and 3.4 TDs per game; 4-5 in three straight. We're expecting something close to their usual output. Cincinnati lost both of last year's meetings, but scored 30 and 34 points in those games. ... The Browns rank 9th against the pass and also have 22 sacks (3rd), but production compiled ...
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... against Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater, Ben Roethlisberger and the Texans combo doesn't look relevant. Joe Burrow is closer to the Mahomes, Herbert and Murray group that averaged 322 passing yards and threw 3, 4 and 4 TDs. Kirk Cousins managed just 203 yards and 1 TD; that's the only credible quarterback this defense really controlled. Burrow's got a strong assortment of weapons and is playing very well, averaging 277 yards and throwing multiple touchdowns in every game -- 3 TDs in three straight. This is probably a below-average situation for him, but on-field production from both Burrow and this defense against better passers suggests he'll be fine. As a rookie, Burrow had his two best games against this opponent: 316 and 406 yards, with 7 total touchdowns. He averaged 54 pass attempts in those contests, which is not how they'll want things to go in this one, but we like Burrow. ... A year ago Burrow didn't have JaMarr Chase, so the offense has even more potential now. Chase comes off his quietest game (3 for 32), but still caught a touchdown and dropped another one. He's averaging 98 yards, with 7 TDs in eight games. Tee Higgins has been less reliable, averaging just 59 yards, though he's also caught 2 TDs and a 2-point conversion in six games, and comes off season-high 97 yards. With Chase the top concern for opponents, Higgins should have some good games, including potentially here. Tyler Boyd is definitely 3rd among these receivers, though he at least comes off one of his better games (69 yards and a score). His other best game was with Higgins sidelined. Opponents have thrown 9 TDs to wide receivers against the Browns, with 7 coming against those better offenses they've faced. Boyd caught 18 passes and 2 TDs against Cleveland last year, but was one of the clear top 2 at the time. Higgins averaged 53 yards and caught 1 TD in the series. ... Joe Mixon rushed for only 33 yards against the Jets, and it was one of three games he's averaged under 3.5 per attempt. But he's scored in five straight games (6 total in those contests) and his two best receiving games (58-59 yards, with a touchdown in each) have come in the last three weeks. This, though, is a tough matchup, with the Browns 3rd in run defense. Only three teams have cracked 100 rushing yards against this defense, and set aside the wild shootout with the Chargers and the Browns have allowed only 3 rushing scores in their other seven games. And Cincinnati has a bottom-10 rushing offense. Samaje Perine has been a factor at times, but not consistently. Twice he's had 11 carries in a game, but just 4 total in his three other most recent contests, and none last week. Just one game with more than 2 receptions all year, too. A lopsided win looks like the best time to try Perine, and this shouldn't be one of those games. Mixon put up 86 total yards in his lone game against Cleveland a year ago, and Giovani Bernard 96 and a score in the other. ... C.J. Uzomah has been a regular part of the passing game. He's caught 17 passes and 5 TDs in his last five. Uzomah scored at Cleveland last year, before getting hurt, while Drew Sample went 5 for 52 in the rematch. The Browns have allowed 4 TDs to tight ends this season. ... Evan McPherson averages under 7 kicking points, but has put up three of his four best games in the last three (10, 11 and 7 points). The Browns have allowed only 8 field goals all season, though, so a seemingly poor situation for him. Cincinnati kicked 5 field goals in last year's two slugfests; we’re going a little higher than the numbers (compiled with Cleveland facing a lot of lesser offenses) suggest. ... The Bengals Defense served up too many yards and points against the Jets, but was fine in other areas (3 takeaways and 2 sacks). On the season it has 21 sacks (4th) and 7 interceptions (9th). Baker Mayfield has been careful with the football (3 interceptions and 2 lost fumbles), but perhaps while trying to do too much (or dealing with the discomfort of an injured shoulder) he's been absorbing a lot of sacks (22, so more than 3 per game). Looks like a good situation for the Bengals.