Playing around with the numbers, I wonder if this is a week to get cute and maybe sit down Tom Brady. Such a strategy would require another great quarterback, of course, but this is a week where I think it can be thought about.
The Bucs are playing Buffalo, and while the Bills have their flaws, they’ve been very good defensively, especially against the pass. No quarterback this year has really lit them up. They’re allowing a league-low 175 passing yards per game, and with only 8 TD passes. If you want to set aside the wind-affected game last night, then move them up to 189 yards – still really tough.
They also are an AFC East team, so they’ve played against Brady many times before. They have a feel for how he plays and the kind of throws he likes.
If we get out the stats from previous years and look at how Brady has played against Sean McDermott defenses, I don’t see big numbers. McDermott became Buffalo’s head coach in 2017, and while he’s gone 0-6 against Brady, the Patriots didn’t put up good passing numbers in any of those games. I see an average of 226 passing yards, with 4 TDs and 5 interceptions.
I don’t see a single game in there where Brady finished with top-10 quarterbacking numbers.
With how Buffalo plays defensively, I’m thinking this could be a week where the Bucs spend more time feeding the ball to Leonard Fournette. The Patriots had some success running the ball on Buffalo last night, and Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry in previous weeks have done the same.
| BRADY AGAINST McDERMOTT DEFENSES | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Venue | Result | Com | Att | Pct | Yds | TD | Int |
| 2017 | Buff. | W 23-3 | 21 | 30 | 70.0 | 258 | 0 | 1 |
| 2017 | N.E. | W 37-16 | 21 | 28 | 75.0 | 224 | 2 | 1 |
| 2018 | Buff. | W 25-6 | 29 | 45 | 64.4 | 324 | 0 | 0 |
| 2018 | N.E. | W 24-12 | 13 | 24 | 54.2 | 126 | 1 | 2 |
| 2019 | Buff. | W 16-10 | 18 | 39 | 46.2 | 150 | 0 | 1 |
| 2019 | N.E. | W 24-17 | 26 | 33 | 78.8 | 271 | 1 | 0 |
It’s early. There are still plenty of games to look at. But my hunch is there will be some quarterbacks slotted ahead of TB12 this week.
—Ian Allan