If you ever doubt the importance of having a top quarterback in today's NFL, look at the final eight playoff teams. Six of them ranked in top 10 in passing offense during the season, while a seventh (San Francisco) ranked 12th. Only Tennessee was below average, which might be why nobody thinks they're going to the Super Bowl.
It's a quarterback-centric league, which makes me wonder if the top pass rushes remaining in the playoffs, capable of throwing off those quarterbacks, could be key the rest of the way. Two of the three top pass rushes left -- the Rams, with 50 sacks, and the Buccaneers, with 47 -- are playing in the same game, and they're facing opposing offensive lines with some significant health questions.
The Bucs and Rams both ranked in the top 5 in passing offense during the season, and they ranked 1st and 6th (allowing just 23 and 31 sacks, respectively) in sacks allowed. But both are now dealing with significant injuries. For the Rams, left tackle Andrew Whitworth suffered a knee injury in the win over Arizona and hasn't practiced either of the last two days. For the Bucs, both center Ryan Jensen and all-pro right tackle Tristan Wirfs picked up ankle injuries against the Eagles. They also haven't practiced in either of the last two days. Tom Brady was sacked 4 times even in a dominant win over Philadelphia, so that could be important in a matchup with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and company.
The other game where pass rushes could be affected by injury is in Green Bay. Nick Bosa suffered a concussion in the Niners' win in Dallas. But Bosa was able to practice fully on Thursday. Officially questionable, Bosa "looks good" to play this weekend, according to Kyle Shanahan.
Setting aside injuries, and even with them factored in, the most sacks in this weekend's games will probably come in the first game: Cincinnati at Tennessee. That's because the two teams finished 9th and 11th in sacks during the season, and also allowed the 3rd- and 7th-most sacks this year -- the only teams still playing who were worse than average (and in fact much worse) in that regard. The other six teams still playing were all among the 12 best offenses in terms of fewest sacks allowed.
Table shows sacks recorded and sacks allowed for each matchup this weekend. When chasing sacks, look to Tennessee and Cincinnati first, and San Francisc0-Green Bay second. Tampa Bay and Los Angeles is worth dipping into only because of the injury issues; with Whitworthy, Wirfs and Jensen all iffy, those pass rushes might be able to surpass the season-long numbers -- and just maybe swing an outcome or two. The game least likely to be impacted by sacks is the other AFC game, Buffalo at Kansas City.
| PASS RUSHES IN THE PLAYOFFS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Sacks | Opp. Off | Sacks | Total |
| Tennessee | 43 | Cincinnati | 55 | 98 |
| Cincinnati | 42 | Tennessee | 47 | 89 |
| San Francisco | 48 | Green Bay | 33 | 81 |
| Tampa Bay | 47 | L.A. Rams | 31 | 78 |
| L.A. Rams | 50 | Tampa Bay | 23 | 73 |
| Green Bay | 39 | San Francisco | 33 | 72 |
| Buffalo | 42 | Kansas City | 28 | 70 |
| Kansas City | 31 | Buffalo | 27 | 58 |
Sacks aren't everything, but they're one of the most reliable defensive qualities, especially with a bunch of elite quarterbacks who don't throw a lot of interceptions in action. In a playoff competition that uses defenses this week, I'll be utilizing either Cincinnati or Tennessee.
--Andy Richardson