The Vikings are dipping into the Sean McVay coaching tree for their next head coach, hiring Kevin O'Connell away from the Rams. It can't be announced officially with the Rams playing in the Super Bowl, but all reports are that it's happening. I'm wondering mildly if I erred in turning down an offer of Adam Thielen in dynasty a week ago.
It remains to be seen if O'Connell will be any good, but the passing game will likely be a point of emphasis. That was the case under McVay, so presumably it will be the case in Minnesota, as well. The negative is that the offenses he was associated with in Washington (where he served as offensive coordinator in 2019, and quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator in 2017-2018) had one good year out of three throwing it.
This year, with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, the Rams ranked 5th in passing. A year ago, they were also above-average (15th), with a lesser passer behind center in Jared Goff.
But in O'Connell's three years in Washington, two of which he was working under offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh, the passing game that O'Connell was operating was a lesser group more often than not. In 2017 (quarterbacks coach) Washington ranked 10th in passing. But in the next two years, one of which he was the coordinator in (before Washington cleaned house), this was a bottom-5 passing game -- 29th and 32nd throwing the ball.
The good news is that in its best year, 2017, Washington's quarterback was current Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins.
In the table, the passing games O'Connell was associated with are in bold.
| PASSING GAME RANKS, 2017-2021 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
| Arizona | 12t | 32 | 23 | 18 | 8 |
| Atlanta | 9 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| Baltimore | 29 | 23 | 29 | 32 | 13 |
| Buffalo | 31 | 31 | 26 | 3 | 10 |
| Carolina | 28 | 17 | 10 | 16t | 30 |
| Chicago | 32 | 22 | 25 | 22 | 25 |
| Cincinnati | 26 | 24 | 20 | 25 | 7 |
| Cleveland | 22 | 13 | 22 | 27 | 27 |
| Dallas | 27 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| Denver | 20 | 19 | 28 | 28 | 20 |
| Detroit | 5 | 21 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
| Green Bay | 23 | 6 | 19 | 11 | 9 |
| Houston | 21 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 26 |
| Indianapolis | 30 | 7 | 30 | 14 | 29 |
| Jacksonville | 18 | 26 | 18 | 19 | 24 |
| Kansas City | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| LA Chargers | 3 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 2 |
| LA Rams | 11 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 5 |
| Las Vegas | 17 | 18 | 12t | 9 | 6 |
| Miami | 16 | 28 | 11 | 21 | 18 |
| Minnesota | 15 | 12 | 24 | 12 | 11 |
| New England | 1 | 9t | 9 | 30 | 14 |
| New Orleans | 6 | 15 | 7 | 20 | 32 |
| NY Giants | 19 | 9t | 15 | 29 | 31 |
| NY Jets | 24 | 27 | 27 | 31 | 17 |
| Philadelphia | 14 | 8 | 16 | 26 | 28 |
| Pittsburgh | 4 | 2 | 31 | 16t | 15 |
| San Francisco | 8 | 14 | 17 | 10 | 12 |
| Seattle | 12t | 25 | 12t | 13 | 21 |
| Tampa Bay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Tennessee | 25 | 30 | 21 | 23 | 23 |
| Washington | 10 | 29 | 32 | 24 | 22 |
Washington's quarterbacks for most of the two seasons it ranked in the bottom 5 in passing were an ugly lot. In 2018, Alex Smith started 10 games, but the other six were started by Josh Johnson, Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez. Then in 2019, when the team finished last in this area, it got 8 starts from Case Keenum, 7 from Dwayne Haskins and another from McCoy. Hard to fault O'Connell too greatly for the passing game's performance that year.
But it's fair to say that O'Connell is something of an unknown. His most successful years have been operating other people's offenses (McVay served as his own offensive coordinator for two years before O'Connell joined the Rams). His good year in Washington, he was the quarterbacks coach, not the offensive coordinator. Like new Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson, he briefly played quarterback in the NFL (New England drafted him in the third round in 2008, though his career consisted of just 2 games and 6 passing attempts).
Ideally, his offense will look something like what the Rams have been operating. He's got the wide receivers for it in Minnesota, and he's got the quarterback who he worked with when Washington had a top-10 offense.
But I don't think it's a hire that anyone can necessarily get excited about. It won't have the controversy and drama that would have likely followed a Jim Harbaugh hiring, at least. But while O'Connell isn't a total unknown, it's fair to say he's unproven. His assistant coaching hires (both offense and defense) will be important to how well things for work out for Minnesota.
--Andy Richardson