I'm not actually much of a gambler. There was a point many years ago when I'd bet on anything, stopping when I realized I could never actually enjoy my winnings, choosing instead to keep on wagering them until I lost. FanDuel and DraftKings; that's it for me these days. But, I can see the fun in having something riding on a game I otherwise care minimally about.
So every year I take a look at the ever-increasing prop bets, and these days here in New York I could actually bet on these things if I want. So maybe. If I do, if I wanted, these are the different wagers I'd be looking to spend some money on.
I found most of these on a printable sheet from something called TheGameday.com. I'm sure with a quick Google search you can dig up your own list of possibilities.
1st Scoring Play. You can bet on whether the first scoring play is a touchdown, or a field goal (or safety). I think this game will start out a little more defense-oriented, with offenses and defenses feeling each other out, and it's a lot more likely that the first score is a field goal than a touchdown. In fact, the last four years in a row have seen the first points scored in the Super Bowl come on field goals. Good enough for me. Should you be trying to wager on the first player to score, I'd go with Matt Gay or Evan McPherson before I'd choose a running back or receiver. But trying to pick which one is similar to betting on the coin toss -- which you can also do -- which feels insane to me.
Either quarterback throws for 300-plus yards. This is actually a more aggressive number than the individual prop bets for each quarterback. Matthew Stafford's over-under for passing yards is at 279.5, and Joe Burrow's is at 276.5. But with those bets you need to pick the over-under for one of them, and with this you win if either one throws for 300. In my projections, I went with 292 for Stafford and 277 for Burrow. So I suppose should bet No on this one, albeit while betting the over on Stafford himself (and not going near Burrow). But I tend to believe one of these two quarterbacks will wind up over 300, either because his team falls behind and he's throwing on every down, or because he hits his top wideout for a big play. During the season and postseason Stafford has thrown for 300-plus 9 times in 20 games, including the last two playoff contests. Burrow did it 7 times. It's not a great bet, but I feel good that one of these guys will go over 300, and I'd definitely bet the over on Stafford.
Team to record most sacks/takeaways. I am all over the Rams for this bet. Takeaways might be fairly similar; I had the Rams a little higher in my projections, but I'm not married to the idea. But the Rams finishing with more sacks -- maybe 2-plus more -- looks like a given. Joe Burrow took a league-high 51 sacks during the season (3 per game), and 9 against the only above-average pass rush he's seen in the playoffs. Stafford has been sacked just 35 times in 20 games; more than 2 sacks just 4 times all season. Win or lose, Burrow is probably getting sacked 4 times, and the Rams Defense will win this bet.
Onside kick, kick return TD, punt return TD. People are aware that kick return TDs almost never happen these days. In 2021 there were 11 in 272 games. An onside kick seems about as likely to happen on a trick play early on as in the final minutes (for there to be an onside kick, you need to assume one team is going to be up two scores late, and I'm expecting a close game). If you think either the Rams or Bengals is going to win this game comfortably, by all means bet on there being a desperation onside kick late. I don't anticipate a kick return TD or either team winning big, so I'll bet No on this one.
Over-Under 48.5. I will take the Over. Before their 20-17 championship game struggle against a tough 49ers defense with a good feel for defending them, the Rams' last three games had featured 51, 45 and 57 total points. The Bengals played defensive struggles against mediocre Raiders and Titans offenses, but in their last three other games there have been 62, 65 and 51 total points. I think the first quarter might be lower-scoring but ultimately I expect this to devolve into a higher-scoring, 28-25 type of game. I think the over-under is too low.
Over-Under 1.5 TD passes for each QB. The Rams allowed just 17 touchdown passes during the season; more than 1 only seven times in 20 games, including the playoffs. Burrow is capable of it, and I'm expecting a higher-scoring game, but wary of that number for him. Stafford, however, looks like a mortal lock to throw 2 TDs. He did it 16 times in 20 games, including 9 of his last 10. So I'd bet the over on Stafford but steer clear on Burrow.
Super Bowl MVP: Quarterback or non-Quarterback. The MVP of the Super Bowl is heavily in favor of the passers, as with the actual MVP award. All-time, 31 of the 55 winners have been quarterbacks, but the numbers have been even more of a landslide lately, with the NFL becoming every more quarterback-friendly, and (perhaps) voters getting lazier. Twelve of the last 16 Super Bowl MVPs (75 percent) have been quarterbacks, and we've got two great ones playing in this game. If I were going to bet on a non-quarterback (where you can certainly get better odds) it would be Cooper Kupp, with him likely to have a big game for a winning team, and there perhaps being some voters who want to give it to him as sort of a recognition of his amazing season (and postseason). But probably a quarterback, with Kupp the No. 3.
Rushing prop bets. Cam Akers is a great story, returning within 6 months from an Achilles injury to carry the ball 54 times (an average of 18) in three playoff games. But I will take the under on pretty much any bet involving him, since I believe they might be reeling in bettors who only look at those averages and didn't actually watch or pay attention to what happened in the playoff games leading up to the Super Bowl. He was a workhorse at Tampa Bay (24 carries), but how'd that work out? He averaged just 2.0 yards per attempt and lost 2 fumbles. A week later, he played just 40 percent of the snaps and got 13 attempts. Sony Michel was completely ineffective in that game, but now Darrell Henderson is back too. I will take the unders I see on both attempts (16.5) and yards (63.5) for Akers. Joe Mixon has similar props (16.5 and 60.5). Those I want no part of; he should be right around both those numbers. I'd take the under if I were betting it, but it'll be close in both cases.
Receiving prop bets. For the Rams, I like the odds of Cooper Kupp hitting the over on receptions (8.5). I don't think there's much doubt he'll see plenty of targets, including short throws near the line of scrimmage to get their best playmaker involved early and often. Nine receptions for Kupp looks like free money (he did it in just over half (11) of his games, including the last two. The numbers are even more favorable for yards (over-under is 106.5, and he was over that 13 times in 20 games). This one I'm a little wary of -- I could see him catching 10 passes for 105 yards -- but if forced to bet the numbers support the over.
Odell Beckham is a little trickier. His numbers are 5.5 and 63.5. He was over in each of the last two playoff games, but under in all but one or two of his other games during the season. I feel like Beckham catching 6 passes is only worth betting on if you think Kupp will be under 9. And I don't.
On the Bengals side, there's a prop bet for JaMarr Chase of a long reception of 27.5 yards. He hit the over nine times in the regular season and in two of three playoff games. Looks good to me. The other one I'd consider is Tyler Boyd at 42.5 yards. I thought he'd be over, benefiting from C.J. Uzomah being limited or sidelined with a knee injury, but sounds like Uzomah (who got in a limited practice yesterday) will not only be playing but possibly semi-mobile. But I projected him for 56 yards, so I'll give the slight lean to the over.
Again: I'm not a professional gambler. Take these recommendations with a grain of salt, and please do not risk more than you can afford -- especially on something I recommend as a fantasy writer. Just for fun. Good luck.