We have been kicking around some the value of backs like Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook – wondering if those guys are still uber-elite type prospects. In general with these kind of players, my preference is to go with a younger player. Guys can burn out in a hurry at this position.
Not that McCaffrey and Cook can’t be really good. Especially McCaffrey, with his potential to catch 90-plus passes if he can stay healthy. He’ll be a top-10 player on my board, most likely, and maybe in the top 5. But in general with running backs, they tend to play their very best ball early in their careers.
Consider the chart below. It shows the 91 running backs who have put up top-10 overall numbers (PPR scoring) at some point since 2000. Below, I’m showing the best season for each of those players – not just good number, but their very best numbers.
They skew young. The most popular season is Year No. 2, with 16 different backs finishing with the best numbers of their career. (Looking at you, Najee Harris, and to a lesser extent, the less-proven Javonte Williams.) I’m seeing 13 running backs who finished with their best numbers in either their third or fifth seasons, and 11 backs as rookies or in their fourth year. So that’s double-digit backs in each of those first five years.
That’s when things start to fall off. Only 7 running backs put up the best numbers of their career in their sixth season, and only 6 did it in their seventh year. Then things, really dry up, with only 4 and 2 backs showing up in their eighth or ninth seasons (the last two years that appear at all).
There are exceptions to every rule, of course. Of these 91 running backs, three of the top 4 were in either their sixth or seventh year. But in general, if you’re taking a big swing in the first or second round, looking for a lights-out back, I would feel better about a back who’s becoming a great guy, rather than trying to hang on with a McCaffrey, Cook, Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara.
On the chart below, only 18 of the 91 backs (about 1 in 5) were at least 28 years old at the end of the season. I’ve got those guys tagged with black dots.
BEST SEASONS BY TOP-10 RUNNING BACKS | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Yr | Age | Run | Rec | Total | TD |
2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 6 | 27 | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 |
2019 | Christian McCaffrey, Car. | 3 | 23 | 1,387 | 1,005 | 2,392 | 19 |
2000 | Marshall Faulk, St.L. | 7 | 27 | 1,359 | 830 | 2,189 | 26 |
2003 | • Priest Holmes, K.C. | 7 | 30 | 1,420 | 690 | 2,110 | 27 |
2006 | Steven Jackson, St.L. | 3 | 23 | 1,528 | 806 | 2,334 | 16 |
2016 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 2 | 25 | 1,239 | 879 | 2,118 | 20 |
2000 | Edgerrin James, Ind. | 2 | 22 | 1,709 | 594 | 2,303 | 18 |
2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 2 | 24 | 2,006 | 503 | 2,509 | 16 |
2010 | Arian Foster, Hou. | 2 | 24 | 1,616 | 604 | 2,220 | 18 |
2003 | Ahman Green, G.B. | 6 | 26 | 1,883 | 367 | 2,250 | 20 |
2017 | Todd Gurley, LAR | 3 | 23 | 1,305 | 788 | 2,093 | 19 |
2018 | Saquon Barkley, NYG | 1 | 21 | 1,307 | 721 | 2,028 | 15 |
2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 6 | 27 | 1,287 | 693 | 1,980 | 19 |
2005 | • Shaun Alexander, Sea. | 6 | 28 | 1,880 | 78 | 1,958 | 28 |
2020 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 4 | 25 | 932 | 756 | 1,688 | 21 |
2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 2 | 22 | 1,811 | 360 | 2,171 | 20 |
2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 4 | 24 | 1,364 | 704 | 2,068 | 15 |
2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. | 4 | 27 | 1,789 | 410 | 2,199 | 19 |
2007 | • Brian Westbrook, Phil. | 6 | 28 | 1,333 | 771 | 2,104 | 12 |
2002 | Ricky Williams, Mia. | 4 | 25 | 1,853 | 363 | 2,216 | 17 |
2014 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 2 | 22 | 1,361 | 854 | 2,215 | 11 |
2014 | DeMarco Murray, Dall. | 4 | 26 | 1,845 | 416 | 2,261 | 13 |
2004 | • Tiki Barber, NYG | 8 | 29 | 1,518 | 578 | 2,096 | 15 |
2012 | Adrian Peterson, Min. | 6 | 27 | 2,097 | 217 | 2,314 | 13 |
2021 | Austin Ekeler, LAC | 5 | 26 | 911 | 647 | 1,558 | 20 |
2002 | • Charlie Garner, Oak. | 9 | 30 | 962 | 941 | 1,903 | 11 |
2020 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 4 | 25 | 1,557 | 361 | 1,918 | 17 |
2000 | Eddie George, Ten. | 5 | 27 | 1,509 | 453 | 1,962 | 16 |
2013 | • Matt Forte, Chi. | 6 | 28 | 1,339 | 594 | 1,933 | 12 |
2020 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 5 | 26 | 2,027 | 114 | 2,141 | 17 |
2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. | 4 | 24 | 2,066 | 205 | 2,271 | 14 |
2006 | Frank Gore, S.F. | 2 | 23 | 1,695 | 485 | 2,180 | 9 |
2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 3 | 25 | 1,641 | 516 | 2,157 | 8 |
2011 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 3 | 23 | 1,309 | 315 | 1,624 | 20 |
2004 | Domanick Williams, Hou. | 2 | 24 | 1,188 | 588 | 1,776 | 14 |
2016 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 1 | 21 | 1,631 | 363 | 1,994 | 16 |
2015 | Devonta Freeman, Atl. | 2 | 23 | 1,056 | 578 | 1,634 | 14 |
2019 | Aaron Jones, G.B. | 3 | 25 | 1,084 | 474 | 1,558 | 19 |
2012 | Doug Martin, T.B. | 1 | 23 | 1,454 | 472 | 1,926 | 12 |
2008 | DeAngelo Williams, Car. | 3 | 25 | 1,515 | 121 | 1,636 | 20 |
2014 | • Marshawn Lynch, Sea. | 8 | 28 | 1,306 | 367 | 1,673 | 17 |
2010 | Peyton Hillis, Cle. | 3 | 24 | 1,177 | 477 | 1,654 | 13 |
2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 2 | 24 | 1,438 | 309 | 1,747 | 14 |
2021 | Najee Harris, Pitt. | 1 | 23 | 1,200 | 467 | 1,667 | 10 |
2006 | Willie Parker, Pitt. | 3 | 26 | 1,494 | 222 | 1,716 | 16 |
2017 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 1 | 22 | 1,327 | 455 | 1,782 | 11 |
2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 5 | 27 | 1,025 | 563 | 1,588 | 11 |
2013 | Knowshon Moreno, Den. | 5 | 26 | 1,038 | 548 | 1,586 | 13 |
2021 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 5 | 25 | 1,205 | 314 | 1,519 | 16 |
2017 | Melvin Gordon, LAC | 3 | 24 | 1,105 | 476 | 1,581 | 12 |
2008 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 3 | 23 | 824 | 565 | 1,389 | 14 |
2017 | • Mark Ingram, N.O. | 7 | 28 | 1,124 | 416 | 1,540 | 12 |
2000 | • Robert Smith, Min. | 8 | 28 | 1,521 | 348 | 1,869 | 10 |
2007 | Clinton Portis, Was. | 6 | 26 | 1,262 | 389 | 1,651 | 11 |
2008 | Michael Turner, Atl. | 5 | 26 | 1,699 | 41 | 1,740 | 17 |
2008 | • Thomas Jones, NYJ | 9 | 30 | 1,312 | 207 | 1,519 | 15 |
2011 | • Darren Sproles, N.O. | 7 | 28 | 603 | 710 | 1,313 | 10 |
2018 | James White, N.E. | 5 | 26 | 425 | 751 | 1,176 | 12 |
2014 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 2 | 24 | 1,139 | 427 | 1,566 | 13 |
2007 | Joseph Addai, Ind. | 2 | 24 | 1,072 | 364 | 1,436 | 15 |
2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 1 | 22 | 1,282 | 377 | 1,659 | 10 |
2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 3 | 23 | 1,157 | 507 | 1,664 | 10 |
2004 | • Corey Dillon, N.E. | 8 | 30 | 1,635 | 103 | 1,738 | 13 |
2020 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 2 | 23 | 1,070 | 438 | 1,508 | 10 |
2012 | C.J. Spiller, Buff. | 3 | 25 | 1,244 | 459 | 1,703 | 8 |
2019 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 2 | 24 | 1,494 | 278 | 1,772 | 8 |
2012 | Alfred Morris, Was. | 1 | 24 | 1,613 | 77 | 1,690 | 13 |
2021 | James Conner, Ariz. | 5 | 26 | 752 | 375 | 1,127 | 18 |
2021 | Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 5 | 26 | 812 | 454 | 1,266 | 10 |
2012 | Trent Richardson, Cle. | 1 | 22 | 950 | 367 | 1,317 | 12 |
2020 | James Robinson, Jac. | 1 | 22 | 1,070 | 344 | 1,414 | 10 |
2010 | Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG | 4 | 24 | 1,235 | 314 | 1,549 | 8 |
2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. | 4 | 26 | 1,458 | 90 | 1,548 | 12 |
2013 | • Reggie Bush, Det. | 8 | 28 | 1,006 | 506 | 1,512 | 7 |
2014 | • Justin Forsett, Balt. | 7 | 29 | 1,266 | 263 | 1,529 | 8 |
2015 | • Danny Woodhead, S.D. | 7 | 30 | 336 | 755 | 1,091 | 9 |
2006 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 5 | 27 | 1,154 | 445 | 1,599 | 5 |
2007 | Marion Barber, Dall. | 3 | 24 | 975 | 282 | 1,257 | 12 |
2011 | Ryan Mathews, S.D. | 2 | 24 | 1,091 | 455 | 1,546 | 6 |
2021 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 2 | 23 | 1,037 | 294 | 1,331 | 10 |
2017 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 4 | 27 | 938 | 350 | 1,288 | 8 |
2020 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 2 | 22 | 1,065 | 238 | 1,303 | 12 |
2016 | • LeGarrette Blount, N.E. | 7 | 30 | 1,161 | 38 | 1,199 | 18 |
2007 | Willis McGahee, Balt. | 5 | 26 | 1,207 | 231 | 1,438 | 8 |
2021 | • Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 9 | 30 | 618 | 548 | 1,166 | 11 |
2015 | Lamar Miller, Mia. | 4 | 24 | 872 | 397 | 1,269 | 10 |
2016 | Jordan Howard, Chi. | 1 | 22 | 1,313 | 298 | 1,611 | 7 |
2001 | • Antowain Smith, N.E. | 5 | 29 | 1,157 | 192 | 1,349 | 13 |
2007 | Earnest Graham, T.B. | 5 | 27 | 898 | 324 | 1,222 | 10 |
2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 1 | 22 | 1,124 | 215 | 1,339 | 9 |
2015 | Latavius Murray, Oak. | 4 | 25 | 1,066 | 232 | 1,298 | 6 |
Note on the chart. There may be a back or two who finished with more overall statistical production in a year that’s not list. I went with the highest-ranking season first for each back, with the stats being the tie-breaker. That is, if a back finished with 1,700 total yards and was the No. 1 running back that year, I put that season ahead of him potentially finishing with 100 more yards in a different season but ranking lower at his position.
—Ian Allan