Sometimes you hear the term "win-win" trade and think it's incorrect, but it seems to apply to Broncos-Seahawks. There are losers, to be sure, but overall it looks like a win for both involved franchises. There are some obvious and not-so-obvious winners and losers on both sides.
The big winner is the Denver Broncos. They didn't have a franchise quarterback -- had been futilely throwing darts for one for the past seven years -- and now they do. The last two Super Bowl winners didn't have quarterbacks, acquired quarterbacks, and won it all. It's the most important position and the case can be made that no price is too great. Russell Wilson hasn't been at the level of Aaron Rodgers the last two years, who may have been Denver's preferred choice, but he's five years younger. They gave up four early picks the next two years, but at least 1 and maybe 2 (if a trade up was required) of those might have been spent on an unknown rookie quarterback. Wilson's a franchise passer who could/should have 2 Super Bowl wins.
(A Super Bowl appearance with Wilson is far from a sure thing, of course. Denver has two other franchise quarterbacks in its own division, and a couple more probably standing in its way in the AFC. But they're closer to being able to win those playoff games today than they were yesterday, which counts for a lot.)
Seattle gets four early draft picks (including No. 9 overall this year), a quality defensive lineman in Shelby Harris (6 sacks in two of the last three seasons), and a quality tight end in Noah Fant. That's undercut by the fact they don't have a starting quarterback, but Wilson didn't want to be there anymore and there's ample evidence that the relationship with Pete Carroll and the coaching staff was simply broken. They needed to move on, and they moved on to the tune of four top-50ish picks over the next two years. They'll now need to use one or two of those on the game's most important position, but if they hit on it they'll be set up for further into the future than they would have been with Wilson.
Wilson himself wins, because it should be a lot more likely that his new coaching staff in Denver is willing to Let Russ Cook. The offensive talent around him is similar; maybe a slight step back at wideout, but better depth, and a better offensive line. There's no question Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick win, while Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf lose. How much depends who's starting, but Seattle will probably be worse at quarterback at least this year and perhaps beyond. Lockett is rumored to be on the trade block too, so that's a situation that still needs to play out. Hard to say how this affects the running backs, since there are some big free agent decisions involving both teams yet to come.
One of the winners that leaps out for me is Denver's third-year tight end Albert Okwuegbunam (pictured). I'm not sure Fant was a critical element to this deal from Seattle's end; their key incumbents are free agents, but neither Gerald Everett nor Will Dissly will necessarily be gone, and Seattle has tended to use multiple players at the position in recent years. I think a fresh start might be good for him, since he never really got off the ground with the Broncos. But I think Denver moving him is a really promising development for Okwuegbunam.
Okwuegbunam was a fourth-round pick, and he's been pretty effective with his chances in his first two seasons. He's caught 80 percent of the passes thrown his way, which is the 3rd-best rate among all tight ends with at least 50 targets the last two years. The only guys more effective in this regard have been Dolphins blocking tight end Durham Smythe, and Dissly.
| TIGHT END CATCH RATES, 2020-2021 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | G | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Rate |
| Durham Smythe, Mia. | 32 | 70 | 60 | 565 | 9.4 | 2 | 85.7% |
| Will Dissly, Sea. | 31 | 55 | 45 | 482 | 10.7 | 3 | 81.8% |
| Albert Okwuegbunam, Den. | 18 | 55 | 44 | 451 | 10.3 | 3 | 80.0% |
| Robert Tonyan, G.B. | 24 | 88 | 70 | 790 | 11.3 | 13 | 79.5% |
| C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 18 | 74 | 57 | 580 | 10.2 | 6 | 77.0% |
| Geoff Swaim, Ten. | 26 | 52 | 40 | 293 | 7.3 | 4 | 76.9% |
| Anthony Firkser, Ten. | 31 | 96 | 73 | 678 | 9.3 | 4 | 76.0% |
| Pat Freiermuth, Pitt. | 16 | 79 | 60 | 497 | 8.3 | 7 | 75.9% |
| George Kittle, S.F. | 22 | 157 | 119 | 1544 | 13.0 | 8 | 75.8% |
| Drew Sample, Cin. | 33 | 68 | 51 | 430 | 8.4 | 1 | 75.0% |
| Jordan Akins, Hou. | 26 | 82 | 61 | 617 | 10.1 | 1 | 74.4% |
| Pharaoh Brown, Hou. | 28 | 50 | 37 | 334 | 9.0 | 2 | 74.0% |
| Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 33 | 193 | 141 | 1423 | 10.1 | 12 | 73.1% |
| Tyler Higbee, LAR | 30 | 145 | 105 | 1081 | 10.3 | 10 | 72.4% |
| Dallas Goedert, Phil. | 26 | 141 | 102 | 1354 | 13.3 | 7 | 72.3% |
| James O'Shaughnessy, Jac. | 22 | 72 | 52 | 506 | 9.7 | 0 | 72.2% |
| Gerald Everett, Sea. | 31 | 125 | 89 | 895 | 10.1 | 6 | 71.2% |
| Adam Trautman, N.O. | 28 | 59 | 42 | 434 | 10.3 | 3 | 71.2% |
| Kyle Rudolph, NYG | 28 | 76 | 54 | 591 | 10.9 | 2 | 71.1% |
| Noah Fant, Den. | 31 | 183 | 130 | 1343 | 10.3 | 7 | 71.0% |
| Tyler Conklin, Min. | 33 | 113 | 80 | 787 | 9.8 | 4 | 70.8% |
| Travis Kelce, K.C. | 31 | 279 | 197 | 2541 | 12.9 | 21 | 70.6% |
| Foster Moreau, L.V. | 33 | 53 | 37 | 513 | 13.9 | 5 | 69.8% |
| T.J. Hockenson, Det. | 28 | 185 | 128 | 1306 | 10.2 | 10 | 69.2% |
| Hayden Hurst, Atl. | 29 | 119 | 82 | 792 | 9.7 | 9 | 68.9% |
| Mark Andrews, Balt. | 31 | 241 | 165 | 2062 | 12.5 | 16 | 68.5% |
| Jack Doyle, Ind. | 31 | 76 | 52 | 553 | 10.6 | 6 | 68.4% |
| Harrison Bryant, Cle. | 31 | 66 | 45 | 471 | 10.5 | 6 | 68.2% |
| Darren Waller, L.V. | 27 | 238 | 162 | 1861 | 11.5 | 11 | 68.1% |
| Dan Arnold, 2TM | 27 | 97 | 66 | 846 | 12.8 | 4 | 68.0% |
| Chris Herndon, Min. | 32 | 52 | 35 | 327 | 9.3 | 4 | 67.3% |
| David Njoku, Cle. | 29 | 82 | 55 | 688 | 12.5 | 6 | 67.1% |
| Logan Thomas, Was. | 22 | 135 | 90 | 866 | 9.6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| Ryan Griffin, NYJ | 29 | 54 | 36 | 347 | 9.6 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Hunter Henry, N.E. | 31 | 168 | 110 | 1216 | 11.1 | 13 | 65.5% |
| Mo Alie-Cox, Ind. | 32 | 84 | 55 | 710 | 12.9 | 6 | 65.5% |
| Jimmy Graham, Chi. | 31 | 99 | 64 | 623 | 9.7 | 11 | 64.6% |
| Cole Kmet, Chi. | 33 | 137 | 88 | 855 | 9.7 | 2 | 64.2% |
| Austin Hooper, Cle. | 29 | 131 | 84 | 780 | 9.3 | 7 | 64.1% |
| Mike Gesicki, Mia. | 32 | 197 | 126 | 1483 | 11.8 | 8 | 64.0% |
| Cameron Brate, T.B. | 33 | 91 | 58 | 527 | 9.1 | 6 | 63.7% |
| Dawson Knox, Buff. | 27 | 115 | 73 | 875 | 12.0 | 12 | 63.5% |
| Jacob Hollister, Jac. | 23 | 54 | 34 | 264 | 7.8 | 4 | 63.0% |
| Jonnu Smith, N.E. | 31 | 110 | 69 | 742 | 10.8 | 10 | 62.7% |
| Eric Ebron, Pitt. | 23 | 109 | 68 | 642 | 9.4 | 7 | 62.4% |
| Ian Thomas, Car. | 33 | 61 | 38 | 333 | 8.8 | 1 | 62.3% |
| Kyle Pitts, Atl. | 17 | 110 | 68 | 1026 | 15.1 | 1 | 61.8% |
| Rob Gronkowski, T.B. | 28 | 166 | 100 | 1425 | 14.3 | 13 | 60.2% |
| Tyler Eifert, Jac. | 15 | 60 | 36 | 349 | 9.7 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Ricky Seals-Jones, Was. | 15 | 50 | 30 | 271 | 9.0 | 2 | 60.0% |
| Evan Engram, NYG | 31 | 182 | 109 | 1062 | 9.7 | 5 | 59.9% |
| Zach Ertz, 2TM | 28 | 184 | 110 | 1098 | 10.0 | 6 | 59.8% |
| Jared Cook, LAC | 31 | 143 | 85 | 1068 | 12.6 | 11 | 59.4% |
Fant shows up around the middle of the list; he caught 0ver 75 percent of the balls thrown his way last season. I have heard whispers that the team didn't like something about him; as of a week ago they were reportedly undecided about whether to pick up his fifth-year option. Presumably Seattle will. But for me, Okwuegbunam is the guy ready to make a 2022 leap. If I were doing an early best-ball league, he'd be a guy I'd be strongly considering in the middle rounds.
--Andy Richardson