Among the flurry of moves made on the first official day of free agency, two that stand out for me were made by the Buffalo Bills. The splashiest one was signing pass rusher Von Miller away from the Rams, while a quieter -- but shrewd, I think -- took O.J. Howard away from Tampa Bay.
Howard's a former first-round pick who never put it together with the Bucs for one reason or another -- drops, injuries, the team not really committing to him. But he's also flashed significant potential at times, especially in his second season (2018), averaging 57 yards per game and 16.6 yards per catch, while catching 0ver 70 percent of the passes thrown his way.
A third-year breakout didn't happen, and a year later he tore his Achilles (plus the Bucs added Rob Gronkowski). But Howard is still just 27 years old. In an NFL landscape where C.J. Uzomah and Will Dissly are signing for $8 million per year (and Mo Alie-Cox is getting $6 million per year) I think Howard at one year and $3.5 million is a great investment.
The Bills have Dawson Knox, of course, and Knox caught 9 TDs last year. He's still going to be their main red-zone weapon at the position. But there's plenty of room for Howard to contribute to the passing game, not only as a blocker but as a receiver between the 20s. Over the last two seasons, the Bills have thrown 19 TDs to tight ends (5th in the league), but otherwise haven't used the position much. Only three teams have completed fewer passes to tight ends, and only three teams have fewer yards from the position. Howard's presence should mean more sets with 2 tight ends, and more overall receiving. If Knox were to pick up an injury at some point, he could be something special.
| TEAM TE PRODUCTION, 2020-2021 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| Kansas City | 231 | 2810 | 12.2 | 23 |
| Las Vegas | 216 | 2469 | 11.4 | 18 |
| Miami | 213 | 2332 | 10.9 | 13 |
| Denver | 206 | 2021 | 9.8 | 13 |
| Baltimore | 191 | 2262 | 11.8 | 18 |
| Philadelphia | 190 | 2281 | 12.0 | 14 |
| Tampa Bay | 187 | 2274 | 12.2 | 22 |
| Cleveland | 185 | 1950 | 10.5 | 19 |
| Tennessee | 176 | 1644 | 9.3 | 20 |
| San Francisco | 176 | 2159 | 12.3 | 14 |
| Atlanta | 174 | 2014 | 11.6 | 11 |
| LA Chargers | 171 | 1892 | 11.1 | 16 |
| Dallas | 171 | 1699 | 9.9 | 15 |
| Chicago | 168 | 1606 | 9.6 | 16 |
| Pittsburgh | 164 | 1413 | 8.6 | 13 |
| NY Giants | 164 | 1527 | 9.3 | 6 |
| Detroit | 163 | 1676 | 10.3 | 14 |
| LA Rams | 156 | 1606 | 10.3 | 11 |
| Green Bay | 149 | 1577 | 10.6 | 20 |
| Seattle | 149 | 1457 | 9.8 | 11 |
| Houston | 147 | 1523 | 10.4 | 11 |
| Indianapolis | 146 | 1619 | 11.1 | 15 |
| Minnesota | 145 | 1544 | 10.6 | 11 |
| Washington | 143 | 1404 | 9.8 | 12 |
| Jacksonville | 142 | 1387 | 9.8 | 4 |
| Arizona | 124 | 1412 | 11.4 | 11 |
| Cincinnati | 116 | 1079 | 9.3 | 7 |
| New Orleans | 115 | 1323 | 11.5 | 16 |
| Buffalo | 100 | 1089 | 10.9 | 19 |
| New England | 96 | 1151 | 12.0 | 11 |
| NY Jets | 93 | 943 | 10.1 | 6 |
| Carolina | 72 | 656 | 9.1 | 3 |
The bigger move yesterday, and the one far more talked about, was the Bills handing a 32-year-old (33 next week) linebacker a six-year, $120 million contract. That's a lot of coin for a player seemingly on the downside of his career, one who the Broncos traded away just a few months ago.
But as is often the case with these deals, the guaranteed money and contract structure indicates the deal will be something well below that. It looks like about three years and $53 million in guarantees, so roughly $18 million per season -- appropriate for a top pass rusher. Which it seems Miller still is.
With the Broncos and Rams in his age 32 season, Miller had 9.5 sacks, and then added 4 more takedowns in Los Angeles' four playoff games. And it's a clear area of need for Buffalo, which hasn't had a top-10 pass rush since 2016 -- 15th and 11th the last two seasons. Miller should help chance that.
There have seen plenty of instances of top pass rushers continuing to perform at a high level at an advanced age. Since 2000, there have been 31 seasons of a player aged 33 years or older recording at least 8 sacks, so 1-2 per year, on average. Miller should be another of those players -- this year, and probably a couple more. (Data from pro-football-reference.com used in compiling this table.)
| TOP SACK SEASONS, 33 YEARS AND OLDER | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Season | Age | G | Sk |
| Trace Armstrong | MIA | 2000 | 35 | 16 | 16.5 |
| Lorenzo Alexander | BUF | 2016 | 33 | 16 | 12.5 |
| Michael Strahan | NYG | 2005 | 34 | 16 | 11.5 |
| Cameron Wake | MIA | 2016 | 34 | 16 | 11.5 |
| John Abraham | ARI | 2013 | 35 | 16 | 11.5 |
| Terrell Suggs | BAL | 2017 | 35 | 16 | 11.0 |
| John Randle | SEA | 2001 | 34 | 15 | 11.0 |
| Jason Taylor | MIA | 2007 | 33 | 16 | 11.0 |
| Julius Peppers | CAR | 2017 | 37 | 16 | 11.0 |
| Rob Burnett | BAL | 2000 | 33 | 16 | 10.5 |
| Julius Peppers | GNB | 2015 | 35 | 16 | 10.5 |
| James Hall | STL | 2010 | 33 | 16 | 10.5 |
| Cameron Wake | MIA | 2017 | 35 | 16 | 10.5 |
| Bruce Smith | WAS | 2000 | 37 | 16 | 10.0 |
| John Abraham | ATL | 2012 | 34 | 16 | 10.0 |
| Calvin Pace | NYJ | 2013 | 33 | 16 | 10.0 |
| Warren Sapp | OAK | 2006 | 34 | 16 | 10.0 |
| John Abraham | ATL | 2011 | 33 | 15 | 9.5 |
| Willie McGinest | NWE | 2004 | 33 | 16 | 9.5 |
| James Harrison | PIT | 2011 | 33 | 11 | 9.0 |
| Bruce Smith | WAS | 2002 | 39 | 16 | 9.0 |
| Michael Strahan | NYG | 2007 | 36 | 16 | 9.0 |
| Michael Bennett | PHI | 2018 | 33 | 16 | 9.0 |
| Kyle Vanden Bosch | DET | 2011 | 33 | 16 | 8.0 |
| Chris Clemons | JAX | 2014 | 33 | 16 | 8.0 |
| Greg Ellis | DAL | 2008 | 33 | 16 | 8.0 |
| Terrell Suggs | BAL | 2016 | 34 | 15 | 8.0 |
| John Randle | MIN | 2000 | 33 | 16 | 8.0 |
| Clay Matthews | LAR | 2019 | 33 | 13 | 8.0 |
| Bryant Young | SFO | 2005 | 33 | 13 | 8.0 |
| Dwight Freeney | ARI | 2015 | 35 | 11 | 8.0 |
The Bills of course took a hit yesterday when the pass-catching running back they targeted, J.D. McKissic, backed out of his deal to return to Washington. But there are other good pass catching running backs (including in the draft), and plenty of time to add to their backfield. (Some have likely heard the Saquon Barkley rumors.)
I like what the Bills are doing here. After back-to-back championship game losses, they're looking to get over the hump, and these moves are a nice start.
--Andy Richardson