I could see myself drafting Breece Hall. Nice-looking back, and I think he’s going into a surprisingly decent spot. For the 2022 season, I think he’ll be the best of the rookies (though I’m not officially locking in on that yet – my board is a work in progress.
If we’re looking long-term, then you would have to also start thinking about guys like Drake London, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams and Garrett Wilson. There could be a receiver or two in that string together a bunch of seasons with top-20 stats. With Hall, I’m looking more at what guys are doing right now.
Hall wasn’t even selected in the first round, of course, but he went 36th, and that’s the sweet spot for running backs nowadays. With the careers being shorter, more teams are looking to select those guys in the early second round, and most of these picks are having good (even great) careers. They’re guys who would have gone in the first round in the past, before the valuation of the position changed.
Check out the rundown of running backs selected in the 30s and 40s since 2016. Plenty of home-run hits in there, and even most of the ones who haven’t been great so far have had a few good games.
Of the last 11 running backs chosen between 30th and 50th, five have been elite, dominating guys who should have been picked a lot sooner: Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon. Two of the other six easily could wind up in this group: D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams.
| SWEET SPOT RUNNING BACKS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Pk | Player |
| 2016 | Ten. | 45 | Derrick Henry |
| 2017 | Min. | 41 | Dalvin Cook |
| 2017 | Cin. | 48 | Joe Mixon |
| 2018 | N.E. | 31 | Sony Michel |
| 2018 | Cle. | 35 | Nick Chubb |
| 2018 | T.B. | 38 | Ronald Jones |
| 2018 | Det. | 43 | Kerryon Johnson |
| 2020 | K.C. | 32 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
| 2020 | Det. | 35 | D'Andre Swift |
| 2020 | Ind. | 41 | Jonathan Taylor |
| 2021 | Den. | 35 | Javonte Williams |
| 2022 | NYJ | 36 | Breece Hall |
| 2022 | Sea. | 41 | Kenneth Walker |
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I like the Jets as a landing spot. They’ve been stockpiling some talent. Their guard tandem, for example, looks like one of the best in the league. They traded up into the middle of the first round last year to select Alijah Vera-Tucker, and they signed Laken Tomlinson this year to a big free agent deal. The 49ers had turned Tomlinson into one of the game’s best guards, and he’s played with a lot of these coaches before.
Mekhi Becton is a key guy. A potential 360-pound man mountain at left tackle, but they’ve got to get him healthy and dialed in. He played in only one game last year. If he’s right mentally and physically, they’ll have a lot of success running behind him.
With or without a difference-making Becton, there’s some interest in running the ball. I saw a chart go by a few weeks back that surprised me. Inside the 5-yard line last year, only two teams ran the ball more often than the Jets (the Eagles and Colts). That’s including both regular plays and 2-point conversions (which technically aren’t considered plays). Regardless, the Jets should run it a healthy amount, particularly around the goal-line.
| MOST RUSHING ATTEMPTS INSIDE THE 5-YARD LINE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | 2Pt | EZ% |
| Philadelphia | 43 | 58 | 1.35 | 18 | 1 | 44.2% |
| Indianapolis | 36 | 48 | 1.33 | 14 | 0 | 38.9% |
| NY Jets | 35 | 40 | 1.14 | 11 | 2 | 37.1% |
| Washington | 31 | 39 | 1.26 | 10 | 2 | 38.7% |
| Arizona | 29 | 25 | .86 | 14 | 0 | 48.3% |
| Dallas | 28 | 41 | 1.46 | 11 | 4 | 53.6% |
| LA Chargers | 28 | 42 | 1.50 | 11 | 2 | 46.4% |
| New England | 28 | 41 | 1.46 | 15 | 1 | 57.1% |
| Baltimore | 27 | 39 | 1.44 | 11 | 1 | 44.4% |
| Tennessee | 27 | 46 | 1.70 | 14 | 1 | 55.6% |
| Miami | 26 | 27 | 1.04 | 9 | 0 | 34.6% |
| Minnesota | 26 | 21 | .81 | 5 | 1 | 23.1% |
| Green Bay | 25 | 35 | 1.40 | 11 | 1 | 48.0% |
| Kansas City | 25 | 35 | 1.40 | 12 | 1 | 52.0% |
| Buffalo | 24 | 26 | 1.08 | 11 | 1 | 50.0% |
| Chicago | 24 | 26 | 1.08 | 10 | 0 | 41.7% |
| Tampa Bay | 24 | 27 | 1.13 | 11 | 0 | 45.8% |
| Denver | 23 | 25 | 1.09 | 9 | 0 | 39.1% |
| Cleveland | 22 | 43 | 1.95 | 11 | 1 | 54.5% |
| Jacksonville | 22 | 34 | 1.55 | 10 | 0 | 45.5% |
| Las Vegas | 22 | 28 | 1.27 | 11 | 0 | 50.0% |
| Carolina | 21 | 22 | 1.05 | 9 | 0 | 42.9% |
| Cincinnati | 21 | 15 | .71 | 7 | 0 | 33.3% |
| San Francisco | 20 | 39 | 1.95 | 12 | 1 | 65.0% |
| New Orleans | 18 | 6 | .33 | 4 | 0 | 22.2% |
| Seattle | 18 | 24 | 1.33 | 9 | 0 | 50.0% |
| LA Rams | 17 | 18 | 1.06 | 9 | 0 | 52.9% |
| Pittsburgh | 17 | 10 | .59 | 7 | 0 | 41.2% |
| Houston | 16 | 21 | 1.31 | 5 | 1 | 37.5% |
| NY Giants | 16 | 19 | 1.19 | 4 | 3 | 43.8% |
| Atlanta | 14 | 22 | 1.57 | 5 | 1 | 42.9% |
| Detroit | 14 | -3 | -.21 | 5 | 0 | 35.7% |
The question, then, becomes how does Breece Hall stack up against the other backs who are coming back? The veterans all have the edge of more experience in the offense, but I don’t think they have as much talent. Michael Carter was their starter at the end of last year. He’s a smaller guy they selected in the fourth round last year; he split time with Javonte Williams at North Carolina. I would expect Carter will be a contributor – perhaps part of a one-two punch with Hall. They’ve got Ty Johnson, who’s a former sixth-round pick who was released by the Lions. I shouldn’t admit this, but when I was watching the Jets in the preseason last year, a couple of times I got Carter and Johnson mixed up – I thought they looked pretty similar.
They’ve still got veteran Tevin Coleman, but if they were to release him, I don’t know if he would be able to get a roster spot on another team. I think his time has passed. Is he even on the team ahead of Austin Walter (another former 49er)? I don’t know. They drafted LaMical Perine in the fourth round a couple of years ago, but he’s been unable to get his career going.
Hall, I would think, will become their leading runner pretty quickly. He’s a bigger, faster guy. He ran a 4.39 at the combine. And he was very productive at Iowa State, averaging over 1,500 rushing yards his final two years, with 20-plus touchdowns in each of those seasons.
David Montgomery came out of the same school three years ago as a third-round pick and has had a solid career with the Bears. Nice player. But Hall should be even better. He’s about the same size, and with a lot more speed. Playing in the same offense, Hall was lot more productive at the college level. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he finishes this season with about 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns.
—Ian Allan