Noah Fant is a former first-round pick, but never quite lived up to his potential in Denver. For his part, he said the offense didn't use him on enough downfield routes. So far, he's singing a different tune in Seattle.
Fant last week told The Athletic that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron's offense in Seattle is "very favorable" to tight ends. Fant knows better than me, but I doubt I'll be selecting him in drafts based on his optimism.
The biggest issue is Fant might well have the same quarterback in Drew Lock who he already put up modest numbers with in Denver. Or he might have Geno Smith, who wouldn't necessarily be any better, or Baker Mayfield (if the Browns cut him and Seattle signs him, in the ongoing rumor that will not die).
If Waldron's offense is friendly to tight ends, we need to kind of take Fant's word on it. There was nothing special about Waldron's first offense as coordinator, or the ones he was involved in with the Rams.
Last year was his first NFL OC gig; the three years prior to that he was a passing game coordinator with the Rams. Waldron didn't run those offenses, and those teams maybe didn't have receivers at the position as good as Fant, but not much to go on to say the tight ends will be featured in Seattle this year.
Of the 128 NFL offenses across those four seasons, 2021 Seattle ranked 40th in terms of percent of passes going to tight ends; 11th among the 2021 offenses. So top third, which is decent. But the offense Fant just played in was better: 2021 Denver was No. 1 in this regard a year ago, and 8th over the past four seasons. And 2020 Denver 9th. So maybe Fant is correct his skills weren't utilized correctly, but it's not as if Denver didn't throw to the position. The last two years it did so on a higher percentage of passes than any recent offense Waldron was connected to.
Two of those three Rams passing offenses that Waldron helped coordinate finished in the top 50 (out of 128 offenses over the past four seasons) in terms of percent of their team's passes going to tight ends. Those are shown in bold in the table below. So maybe.
| TEAM TIGHT END PRODUCTION, 2018-2021, WITH % OFFENSE | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | No | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yds | %TD |
| 2019 | Baltimore | 125 | 1522 | 14 | 43% | 45% | 38% |
| 2019 | Philadelphia | 155 | 1610 | 12 | 40% | 40% | 44% |
| 2018 | Philadelphia | 155 | 1571 | 12 | 37% | 35% | 41% |
| 2020 | Las Vegas | 128 | 1419 | 13 | 35% | 32% | 46% |
| 2019 | Oakland | 124 | 1427 | 9 | 34% | 35% | 41% |
| 2020 | Philadelphia | 107 | 1207 | 7 | 32% | 32% | 32% |
| 2019 | San Francisco | 102 | 1154 | 7 | 31% | 29% | 25% |
| 2021 | Denver | 109 | 1047 | 7 | 31% | 27% | 35% |
| 2020 | Denver | 97 | 974 | 6 | 31% | 27% | 29% |
| 2021 | Miami | 122 | 1271 | 2 | 30% | 32% | 10% |
| 2018 | Kansas City | 115 | 1500 | 13 | 30% | 29% | 26% |
| 2021 | Baltimore | 118 | 1436 | 9 | 30% | 34% | 43% |
| 2020 | Tennessee | 94 | 967 | 12 | 30% | 25% | 36% |
| 2021 | Cleveland | 95 | 1053 | 10 | 30% | 29% | 48% |
| 2018 | San Francisco | 95 | 1481 | 7 | 29% | 35% | 27% |
| 2021 | Atlanta | 108 | 1355 | 5 | 29% | 34% | 25% |
| 2019 | Kansas City | 108 | 1346 | 5 | 29% | 29% | 17% |
| 2020 | Cleveland | 90 | 897 | 9 | 29% | 24% | 33% |
| 2020 | Baltimore | 73 | 826 | 9 | 28% | 28% | 33% |
| 2020 | Kansas City | 118 | 1515 | 11 | 28% | 30% | 28% |
| 2019 | Indianapolis | 86 | 967 | 7 | 28% | 29% | 32% |
| 2019 | LA Rams | 110 | 1168 | 5 | 28% | 25% | 23% |
| 2021 | Philadelphia | 83 | 1074 | 7 | 27% | 30% | 35% |
| 2018 | Washington | 84 | 966 | 5 | 27% | 29% | 31% |
| 2020 | NY Giants | 86 | 812 | 1 | 27% | 24% | 8% |
| 2019 | Minnesota | 83 | 736 | 8 | 26% | 20% | 31% |
| 2020 | San Francisco | 96 | 1146 | 7 | 26% | 27% | 28% |
| 2018 | Baltimore | 86 | 1071 | 5 | 26% | 29% | 28% |
| 2019 | Tennessee | 76 | 948 | 7 | 26% | 24% | 24% |
| 2021 | Kansas City | 113 | 1295 | 12 | 25% | 26% | 32% |
| 2019 | NY Giants | 95 | 913 | 7 | 25% | 22% | 23% |
| 2018 | Indianapolis | 108 | 1216 | 21 | 25% | 26% | 54% |
| 2021 | Chicago | 83 | 862 | 6 | 25% | 24% | 38% |
| 2020 | Miami | 91 | 1061 | 11 | 25% | 27% | 46% |
| 2019 | Dallas | 95 | 900 | 7 | 24% | 18% | 23% |
| 2018 | Oakland | 91 | 1111 | 10 | 24% | 27% | 53% |
| 2021 | San Francisco | 80 | 1013 | 7 | 23% | 23% | 27% |
| 2018 | Tennessee | 67 | 802 | 7 | 23% | 25% | 44% |
| 2021 | Tennessee | 82 | 677 | 8 | 23% | 18% | 36% |
| 2021 | Seattle | 74 | 742 | 5 | 23% | 19% | 17% |
| 2020 | LA Rams | 89 | 991 | 6 | 23% | 24% | 30% |
| 2019 | Seattle | 77 | 733 | 7 | 23% | 18% | 23% |
| 2018 | NY Jets | 67 | 735 | 5 | 22% | 22% | 28% |
| 2020 | Minnesota | 78 | 899 | 7 | 22% | 21% | 20% |
| 2021 | NY Giants | 78 | 715 | 5 | 22% | 21% | 33% |
| 2020 | Detroit | 83 | 899 | 8 | 22% | 20% | 30% |
| 2019 | Denver | 69 | 804 | 5 | 22% | 24% | 31% |
| 2020 | Indianapolis | 82 | 895 | 8 | 22% | 21% | 33% |
| 2021 | Pittsburgh | 93 | 756 | 8 | 22% | 19% | 35% |
| 2021 | Dallas | 96 | 962 | 11 | 22% | 19% | 28% |
But ultimately, I think the best thing Fant might have going for him is the idea that lesser quarterbacks tend to lean on the position, with easier throws to bigger targets over the middle than trying to connect on tougher downfield throws to wide receivers. Feels more like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf might be hurt by a lesser quarterback than Fant. There's also the fact that Denver has 3 or maybe 4 viable wideouts, while Seattle only had those two proven guys. Perhaps Fant will look more like a No. 3 option.
I'm glad Fant is happy with things so far, but at the moment I'm not buying. He's going to need to prove it before I invest too heavily in Seattle's passing game.
--Andy Richardson