The Patriots gave -- sorry, traded -- N'Keal Harry to the Bears yesterday, and Harry was subsequently added in a number of dynasty leagues. In Chicago, the argument goes, there's not much behind Darnell Mooney to keep him off the field, but New England wasn't exactly sending out Randy Moss, either.
It's a nice move by the Bears, anyway, taking a look at a former first-rounder at the cost of just a seventh-round pick. But the odds of Harry turning his career around, even in Chicago's talent-thin receiving corps, look pretty remote.
Harry's been in the league for three years, without any impact to speak of. In those three seasons he's caught 57 passes and 4 TDs, total, across 33 games. And looking at recent history, in the area of the draft he was selected in, there's not much middle ground. You either hit it big, or you're a bust.
In the last decade, there have been 17 other wide receivers selected in the first round, but outside the top 20 picks (like Harry, the 32nd overall pick in 2019). A little over a third of those wide receivers (6) have at least one top-25 fantasy season on their resumes; most have multiple such campaigns. Three others had a top-40 season. Many of those guys are stars. Setting aside the ones it's too soon to call (Rashod Bateman), almost all the rest flopped hard. Like Harry.
Table shows the best seasons from first-round wideouts drafted outside the top 20 since 2012, with the most recent selections first. The guys with at least a top-25 season are in bold; top-40 in italics.
| WRS SELECTED PICKS 21-32, 2012-PRESENT (BEST SEASONS) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 27 | 2021 | Rashod Bateman, Balt. | 68 | 46 | 515 | 1 | 103.5 | 70 |
| 25 | 2020 | Brandon Aiyuk, S.F. | 96 | 60 | 748 | 5 | 184.5 | 35 |
| 21 | 2020 | Jalen Reagor, Phil. | 54 | 31 | 396 | 1 | 87.2 | 91 |
| 22 | 2021 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 167 | 108 | 1616 | 10 | 332.8 | 4 |
| 25 | 2021 | Marquise Brown, Balt. | 146 | 91 | 1008 | 6 | 228.3 | 21 |
| 32 | 2020 | N'Keal Harry, N.E. | 57 | 33 | 309 | 2 | 75.9 | 98 |
| 26 | 2020 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 143 | 90 | 1374 | 9 | 283.5 | 5 |
| 24 | 2019 | DJ Moore, Car. | 135 | 87 | 1175 | 4 | 232.5 | 16 |
| 22 | 2017 | Josh Doctson, Was. | 78 | 35 | 502 | 6 | 119.8 | 57 |
| 23 | 2021 | Laquon Treadwell, Jac. | 51 | 33 | 434 | 1 | 82.4 | 90 |
| 21 | 2020 | Will Fuller, Hou. | 75 | 53 | 879 | 8 | 188.9 | 32 |
| 26 | 2019 | Breshad Perriman, T.B. | 69 | 36 | 645 | 6 | 138.1 | 51 |
| 29 | 2019 | Phillip Dorsett, N.E. | 54 | 29 | 397 | 5 | 100.8 | 71 |
| 28 | 2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 145 | 73 | 1008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
| 29 | 2013 | Cordarrelle Patterson, Min. | 77 | 45 | 469 | 4 | 161.7 | 38 |
| 27 | 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins, Hou. | 163 | 115 | 1572 | 11 | 337.5 | 1 |
| 30 | 2013 | A.J. Jenkins, K.C. | 17 | 8 | 130 | 0 | 21.6 | 133 |
| 26 | 2012 | Jonathan Baldwin, K.C. | 47 | 20 | 325 | 1 | 58.5 | 101 |
Breshad Perriman has had a few good stretches since leaving Baltimore. Maybe that can happen for Harry.
But looks a lot more likely he'll be another Jenkins or Baldwin. Not a lot of middle ground with these players.
--Andy Richardson