If you should wind up in a fantasy league with Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, you'll likely have a hard time drafting Rashaad Penny. Seems like a strong possibility Condotta selects him first, since he believes a "realistic projection" has Penny getting 20 carries per game.
That's a lot, but Condotta points out that Penny averaged that much in his four 100-yard games late last season, and that's the template for how Seattle wants to play this year. He doesn't think the odds of Chris Carson returning from neck fusion surgery are good (I strongly agree with this), and doesn't seem to expect a big role from second-rounder Ken Walker. That's one I disagree on.
Seattle selected Walker early in the second round. That alone isn't assurance of a major role, but it's a favorable sign. When teams select running backs that early, more often than not they give them a decent amount of work.
I looked at the last 20 years of second-round picks (and these are players taken anywhere in the round; Walker was selected just 9 picks into it). Setting aside guys who were injured and missed their entire rookie seasons, there have been 47 other second-rounders since 2000.
Of those players, 29 (62 percent) got at least 100 carries in their rookie seasons. Fourteen (just under a third) were top-25 fantasy backs; 20 at least finished in the top 35 at the position (PPR).
That doesn't make Walker a premium selection at the position, but it suggests a strong likelihood he'll have a significant role in the offense. When teams select running backs in the second round, those guys tend to play early and often. So even if you're not in the camp that expects Penny to get hurt, as he has for most of his career to this point, imagining him averaging 20 carries per game, even in a run-heavy Seattle offense, seems wildly optimistic.
In the table of second-rounders, sorted by rookie year rushing yards, top-25 fantasy backs are in bold.
| 2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pk | Year | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 51 | 2002 | Clinton Portis, Den. | 273 | 1508 | 33 | 364 | 17 | 7 |
| 44 | 2008 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 316 | 1238 | 63 | 477 | 12 | 2 |
| 38 | 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 278 | 1183 | 22 | 178 | 7 | 17 |
| 61 | 2013 | Eddie Lacy, G.B. | 284 | 1178 | 35 | 257 | 11 | 8 |
| 41 | 2020 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 232 | 1169 | 36 | 299 | 12 | 6 |
| 55 | 2014 | Jeremy Hill, Cin. | 222 | 1124 | 27 | 215 | 9 | 10 |
| 35 | 2018 | Nick Chubb, Cle. | 192 | 996 | 20 | 149 | 10 | 17 |
| 60 | 2006 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. | 166 | 941 | 46 | 436 | 16 | 8 |
| 35 | 2021 | Javonte Williams, Den. | 203 | 903 | 43 | 316 | 7 | 17 |
| 48 | 2013 | LeVeon Bell, Pitt. | 244 | 860 | 45 | 399 | 8 | 15 |
| 43 | 2004 | Julius Jones, Dall. | 197 | 819 | 17 | 109 | 7 | 31 |
| 53 | 2019 | Miles Sanders, Phil. | 179 | 818 | 50 | 509 | 6 | 15 |
| 55 | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 134 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 24 |
| 36 | 2015 | T.J. Yeldon, Jac. | 182 | 740 | 36 | 279 | 3 | 28 |
| 58 | 2001 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 213 | 729 | 22 | 179 | 4 | 30 |
| 37 | 2013 | Giovani Bernard, Cin. | 170 | 695 | 56 | 514 | 8 | 13 |
| 43 | 2018 | Kerryon Johnson, Det. | 118 | 641 | 32 | 213 | 4 | 33 |
| 53 | 2009 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. | 155 | 637 | 40 | 308 | 4 | 32 |
| 48 | 2017 | Joe Mixon, Cin. | 178 | 626 | 30 | 287 | 4 | 33 |
| 52 | 2020 | Cam Akers, LAR | 145 | 625 | 11 | 123 | 3 | 45 |
| 54 | 2015 | Ameer Abdullah, Det. | 143 | 597 | 25 | 183 | 3 | 44 |
| 62 | 2011 | Daniel Thomas, Mia. | 165 | 581 | 12 | 72 | 1 | 51 |
| 54 | 2014 | Bishop Sankey, Ten. | 152 | 569 | 18 | 133 | 2 | 44 |
| 58 | 2013 | Montee Ball, Den. | 120 | 559 | 20 | 145 | 4 | 43 |
| 35 | 2020 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 114 | 521 | 46 | 357 | 10 | 16 |
| 45 | 2016 | Derrick Henry, Ten. | 110 | 490 | 13 | 137 | 5 | 45 |
| 55 | 2008 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 107 | 454 | 33 | 273 | 0 | 49 |
| 34 | 2003 | DeShaun Foster, Car. | 113 | 429 | 26 | 207 | 2 | 42 |
| 41 | 2004 | Tatum Bell, Den. | 75 | 396 | 5 | 80 | 3 | 63 |
| 44 | 2005 | J.J. Arrington, Ariz. | 112 | 370 | 25 | 139 | 2 | 53 |
| 41 | 2017 | Dalvin Cook, Min. | 74 | 354 | 11 | 90 | 2 | 72 |
| 57 | 2014 | Carlos Hyde, S.F. | 83 | 333 | 12 | 68 | 4 | 61 |
| 51 | 2010 | Toby Gerhart, Min. | 81 | 322 | 21 | 167 | 1 | 58 |
| 56 | 2002 | Ladell Betts, Was. | 65 | 307 | 12 | 154 | 1 | 61 |
| 52 | 2007 | Brian Leonard, St.L. | 86 | 303 | 30 | 183 | 0 | 56 |
| 49 | 2001 | LaMont Jordan, NYJ | 39 | 292 | 7 | 44 | 2 | 71 |
| 63 | 2007 | Brandon Jackson, G.B. | 75 | 267 | 16 | 130 | 1 | 67 |
| 45 | 2006 | LenDale White, Ten. | 61 | 244 | 14 | 60 | 0 | 72 |
| 62 | 2020 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 46 | 242 | 2 | 21 | 2 | 83 |
| 55 | 2004 | Greg Jones, Jac. | 62 | 162 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 83 |
| 54 | 2002 | Maurice Morris, Sea. | 32 | 153 | 3 | 25 | 1 | 94 |
| 61 | 2012 | LaMichael James, S.F. | 27 | 125 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 116 |
| 62 | 2013 | Christine Michael, Sea. | 18 | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 131 |
| 36 | 2010 | Dexter McCluster, K.C. | 18 | 71 | 21 | 209 | 2 | 65 |
| 56 | 2011 | Shane Vereen, N.E. | 15 | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 122 |
| 50 | 2012 | Isaiah Pead, St.L. | 10 | 54 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 130 |
| 38 | 2018 | Ronald Jones, T.B. | 23 | 44 | 7 | 33 | 1 | 95 |
Penny was great late last year, and he'll open as the lead back in a run-dominated offense. But 20 carries a game seems optimistic, and the team's second-rounder not having a significant role strikes me as unlikely. I think more of a one-two punch backfield is reasonable, with Walker getting 10-12 carries a game, and another back mixing in for passing situations. I wouldn't be selecting Penny in Condotta's leagues. I would have some interest in Walker.
--Andy Richardson