Around the NFL

July 16, 2022

Seattle running backs

Huge workload for Penny?

If you should wind up in a fantasy league with Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, you'll likely have a hard time drafting Rashaad Penny. Seems like a strong possibility Condotta selects him first, since he believes a "realistic projection" has Penny getting 20 carries per game.

That's a lot, but Condotta points out that Penny averaged that much in his four 100-yard games late last season, and that's the template for how Seattle wants to play this year. He doesn't think the odds of Chris Carson returning from neck fusion surgery are good (I strongly agree with this), and doesn't seem to expect a big role from second-rounder Ken Walker. That's one I disagree on.

Seattle selected Walker early in the second round. That alone isn't assurance of a major role, but it's a favorable sign. When teams select running backs that early, more often than not they give them a decent amount of work.

I looked at the last 20 years of second-round picks (and these are players taken anywhere in the round; Walker was selected just 9 picks into it). Setting aside guys who were injured and missed their entire rookie seasons, there have been 47 other second-rounders since 2000.

Of those players, 29 (62 percent) got at least 100 carries in their rookie seasons. Fourteen (just under a third) were top-25 fantasy backs; 20 at least finished in the top 35 at the position (PPR).

That doesn't make Walker a premium selection at the position, but it suggests a strong likelihood he'll have a significant role in the offense. When teams select running backs in the second round, those guys tend to play early and often. So even if you're not in the camp that expects Penny to get hurt, as he has for most of his career to this point, imagining him averaging 20 carries per game, even in a run-heavy Seattle offense, seems wildly optimistic.

In the table of second-rounders, sorted by rookie year rushing yards, top-25 fantasy backs are in bold.

2ND-ROUND RUNNING BACKS, 2000-2021
Pk	Year	Player	Att	Run	No	Rec	TD	Rk
51	2002	Clinton Portis, Den.	273	1508	33	364	17	7
44	2008	Matt Forte, Chi.	316	1238	63	477	12	2
38	2001	Anthony Thomas, Chi.	278	1183	22	178	7	17
61	2013	Eddie Lacy, G.B.	284	1178	35	257	11	8
41	2020	Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	232	1169	36	299	12	6
55	2014	Jeremy Hill, Cin.	222	1124	27	215	9	10
35	2018	Nick Chubb, Cle.	192	996	20	149	10	17
60	2006	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	166	941	46	436	16	8
35	2021	Javonte Williams, Den.	203	903	43	316	7	17
48	2013	LeVeon Bell, Pitt.	244	860	45	399	8	15
43	2004	Julius Jones, Dall.	197	819	17	109	7	31
53	2019	Miles Sanders, Phil.	179	818	50	509	6	15
55	2020	J.K. Dobbins, Balt.	134	805	18	120	9	24
36	2015	T.J. Yeldon, Jac.	182	740	36	279	3	28
58	2001	Travis Henry, Buff.	213	729	22	179	4	30
37	2013	Giovani Bernard, Cin.	170	695	56	514	8	13
43	2018	Kerryon Johnson, Det.	118	641	32	213	4	33
53	2009	LeSean McCoy, Phil.	155	637	40	308	4	32
48	2017	Joe Mixon, Cin.	178	626	30	287	4	33
52	2020	Cam Akers, LAR	145	625	11	123	3	45
54	2015	Ameer Abdullah, Det.	143	597	25	183	3	44
62	2011	Daniel Thomas, Mia.	165	581	12	72	1	51
54	2014	Bishop Sankey, Ten.	152	569	18	133	2	44
58	2013	Montee Ball, Den.	120	559	20	145	4	43
35	2020	D'Andre Swift, Det.	114	521	46	357	10	16
45	2016	Derrick Henry, Ten.	110	490	13	137	5	45
55	2008	Ray Rice, Balt.	107	454	33	273	0	49
34	2003	DeShaun Foster, Car.	113	429	26	207	2	42
41	2004	Tatum Bell, Den.	75	396	5	80	3	63
44	2005	J.J. Arrington, Ariz.	112	370	25	139	2	53
41	2017	Dalvin Cook, Min.	74	354	11	90	2	72
57	2014	Carlos Hyde, S.F.	83	333	12	68	4	61
51	2010	Toby Gerhart, Min.	81	322	21	167	1	58
56	2002	Ladell Betts, Was.	65	307	12	154	1	61
52	2007	Brian Leonard, St.L.	86	303	30	183	0	56
49	2001	LaMont Jordan, NYJ	39	292	7	44	2	71
63	2007	Brandon Jackson, G.B.	75	267	16	130	1	67
45	2006	LenDale White, Ten.	61	244	14	60	0	72
62	2020	AJ Dillon, G.B.	46	242	2	21	2	83
55	2004	Greg Jones, Jac.	62	162	3	13	3	83
54	2002	Maurice Morris, Sea.	32	153	3	25	1	94
61	2012	LaMichael James, S.F.	27	125	3	29	0	116
62	2013	Christine Michael, Sea.	18	79	0	0	0	131
36	2010	Dexter McCluster, K.C.	18	71	21	209	2	65
56	2011	Shane Vereen, N.E.	15	57	0	0	1	122
50	2012	Isaiah Pead, St.L.	10	54	3	16	0	130
38	2018	Ronald Jones, T.B.	23	44	7	33	1	95

Penny was great late last year, and he'll open as the lead back in a run-dominated offense. But 20 carries a game seems optimistic, and the team's second-rounder not having a significant role strikes me as unlikely. I think more of a one-two punch backfield is reasonable, with Walker getting 10-12 carries a game, and another back mixing in for passing situations. I wouldn't be selecting Penny in Condotta's leagues. I would have some interest in Walker.

--Andy Richardson

Rashaad Penny Ken Walker

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