Darren Waller is looking for a new deal, and who can blame him? He’s one of the league’s most underpaid players.
Waller isn’t planning on missing any training camp time, but he would like to re-work the deal he signed back in 2019. He has dramatically outperformed that contract, ranking 2nd in receptions among tight ends since that time, behind on Travis Kelce. I think he and the Raiders will work something out.
Waller counts only $6.8 million against the cap this year, with a $6.3 million base salary. That looks awfully low, with wide receivers like Amari Cooper, Chris Godwin, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Terry McLaurin and DJ Moore all having signed contracts averaging over $20 million. Those guys don’t seem to be three times more valuable than Waller.
With tight ends in general being underpaid (George Kittle is tops at the position, averaging only $15 million) I wonder if a team has toyed around with the idea of emphasizing the position in its roster building. Players like Kelce, Kyle Pitts, Mike Gesicki and Waller look extra valuable, with the ability to be used like a wide receiver but carrying the lesser tight end price tag.
For fantasy purposes, I am worried about Waller being crowded out statistically by Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow. If those guys are catching plenty of passes, it will make it hard for Waller to be as heavily used as he was in the past.
On that front, I played around with some numbers, and they support that premise.
In the last 20 years, there have been 123 teams that have had a pair of wide receivers who’ve caught 70-plus passes each. I’m assuming that Adams will finish way over 70 catches, and that Renfrow probably will reach that level. And this chart also works well with Gesicki, with him sharing the stage with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Of those 123 teams, only five had a tight end who finished with top-5 numbers (using PPR scoring) – last happened with Rob Gronkowski in 2014. Over the last 20 years, your chances of getting a top-5 tight end were over 4 times better (95 out of 517) if you picked a tight end from a team that didn’t have two wide receivers with 70-plus catches.
Similarly with top-10 tight ends, under 15 percent of teams with two good wide receivers had a top-10 tight end (18 of 123), while over 35 percent of the other teams (182 of 517) had one.
Looking at the top-20 level, there were over twice as many such tight ends on the teams that didn’t have a dynamic pair of wide receives.
Will be a big surprise, I think, if Waller finishes with top-5 stats this year. Yet I expect he’ll be one of the first five picked in most drafts.
I’m not opposed to Waller getting paid. He’s a nice player. But I would prefer to see him dealt into a more favorable situation.
| TIGHT ENDS WITH TWO 70-CATCH WIDE RECEIVERS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 2014 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 82 | 1124 | 12 | 266.4 | 1 |
| 2012 | Tony Gonzalez, Atl. | 93 | 930 | 8 | 234.0 | 2 |
| 2011 | Aaron Hernandez, N.E. | 79 | 910 | 7 | 216.5 | 3 |
| 2013 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 65 | 788 | 12 | 215.8 | 3 |
| 2012 | Rob Gronkowski, N.E. | 55 | 790 | 11 | 200.0 | 5 |
| 2011 | Brandon Pettigrew, Det. | 83 | 777 | 5 | 190.7 | 6 |
| 2021 | Rob Gronkowski, T.B. | 55 | 802 | 6 | 171.2 | 7 |
| 2018 | Kyle Rudolph, Min. | 64 | 634 | 4 | 151.4 | 7 |
| 2009 | Heath Miller, Pitt. | 76 | 789 | 6 | 190.9 | 8 |
| 2013 | Charles Clay, Mia. | 69 | 759 | 7 | 188.4 | 8 |
| 2016 | Dennis Pitta, Balt. | 86 | 729 | 2 | 170.9 | 8 |
| 2019 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 69 | 734 | 3 | 160.4 | 8 |
| 2006 | Jason Witten, Dall. | 64 | 754 | 1 | 145.4 | 8 |
| 2004 | Bubba Franks, G.B. | 34 | 361 | 7 | 112.1 | 9 |
| 2013 | Martellus Bennett, Chi. | 65 | 759 | 5 | 170.9 | 10 |
| 2014 | Julius Thomas, Den. | 43 | 489 | 12 | 163.9 | 10 |
| 2020 | Hayden Hurst, Atl. | 56 | 571 | 6 | 149.1 | 10 |
| 2018 | Vance McDonald, Pitt. | 50 | 610 | 4 | 135.0 | 10 |
| 2021 | Dawson Knox, Buff. | 49 | 587 | 9 | 164.1 | 11 |
| 2020 | Dalton Schultz, Dall. | 63 | 615 | 4 | 148.5 | 11 |
| 2014 | Larry Donnell, NYG | 63 | 623 | 6 | 161.3 | 12 |
| 2008 | Tony Scheffler, Den. | 40 | 645 | 3 | 122.4 | 12 |
| 2020 | Eric Ebron, Pitt. | 56 | 558 | 5 | 143.8 | 13 |
| 2015 | Eric Ebron, Det. | 47 | 537 | 5 | 130.7 | 13 |
| 2008 | Dustin Keller, NYJ | 48 | 535 | 3 | 119.5 | 14 |
| 2002 | Ernie Conwell, St.L. | 34 | 419 | 3 | 96.9 | 14 |
| 2016 | Coby Fleener, N.O. | 50 | 631 | 4 | 137.3 | 15 |
| 2018 | O.J. Howard, T.B. | 34 | 565 | 5 | 120.5 | 15 |
| 2007 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 36 | 389 | 6 | 112.0 | 15 |
| 2005 | Dallas Clark, Ind. | 37 | 488 | 4 | 109.8 | 16 |
| 2004 | Marcus Pollard, Ind. | 29 | 309 | 6 | 95.9 | 16 |
| 2021 | Jared Cook, LAC | 48 | 564 | 4 | 132.4 | 18 |
| 2020 | Tyler Higbee, LAR | 44 | 521 | 5 | 128.2 | 18 |
| 2002 | Doug Jolley, Oak. | 32 | 409 | 2 | 84.9 | 18 |
| 2021 | C.J. Uzomah, Cin. | 49 | 493 | 5 | 128.3 | 19 |
| 2006 | Chris Baker, NYJ | 31 | 300 | 4 | 85.0 | 19 |
| 2011 | Jake Ballard, NYG | 38 | 604 | 4 | 122.4 | 20 |
| 2021 | Gerald Everett, Sea. | 48 | 478 | 4 | 121.8 | 20 |
| 2010 | Anthony Fasano, Mia. | 39 | 528 | 4 | 115.8 | 20 |
| 2009 | Benjamin Watson, N.E. | 29 | 404 | 5 | 99.4 | 20 |
| 2008 | Donald Lee, G.B. | 39 | 303 | 5 | 99.3 | 20 |
—Ian Allan