Not a lot of positive talk around Antonio Gibson lately. Talented guy, but Washington sounds like it could be lightening his workload some, for various reasons. Which has me intrigued by third-rounder Brian Robinson.
The first exhibition game only strengthened this feeling. Gibson started, but came off the field for J.D. McKissic on third downs. That was expected. But Gibson also fumbled it away on his second carry, and was replaced the next series (with the first-team offense still out there) by Robinson. He had a couple of nice runs, caught 2 passes, and scored a short touchdown.
Gibson then returned for the third series, but Carson Wentz and the other starters had been taken out of the game.
Gibson fumbled 6 times last season, but he also did enough good things that I'm not suggesting his job is in jeopardy. But if he's coming off the field in passing situations and also losing some change-of-pace and perhaps short-yardage carries to Robinson, it will be tough for him to be a great fantasy option. There's also the concern that he could lose some goal-line work to the rookie.
Robinson had 14 rushing touchdowns for Alabama last year, plus 2 more as a receiver. I doubt he's being considered for a short-yardage role strictly because of that production -- pretty much any lead running back in Alabama's backfield is a mortal lock for double-digit touchdowns -- but the coaching staff might reasonably consider it.
Robinson was one of three running backs selected in the third round in April, including Rachaad White (Tampa Bay) and Tyrion Davis-Price (San Francisco). All three were selected within 7 picks of each other. None of the three is stepping into an immediate starting job, but if recent form holds, probably one of them will wind up having at least some value right away.
Over the last 10 years, there have been 30 running backs selected in the third round; exactly 3 per year, just like this one. Of those backs, 5 (including Gibson, as it happens) have put up 1,000 total yards as rookies; 5 more have finished with at least 700. Ten have scored 5-plus touchdowns; four at least 11 TDs.
Just a few immediate stars, ala Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara and David Johnson, but a lot of rookie contributors, and at least one weekly starter in fantasy leagues, on average. (Table shows rookie year stats for each player, sorted by total yards.)
| 3RD-ROUND ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS, 2012-2021 | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Pk | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2017 | 86 | Kareem Hunt, K.C. | 272 | 1327 | 53 | 455 | 1782 | 11 |
| 2017 | 67 | Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 120 | 728 | 81 | 826 | 1554 | 14 |
| 2019 | 73 | David Montgomery, Chi. | 242 | 889 | 25 | 185 | 1074 | 7 |
| 2020 | 66 | Antonio Gibson, Wash. | 170 | 795 | 36 | 247 | 1042 | 11 |
| 2015 | 86 | David Johnson, Ariz. | 125 | 581 | 36 | 457 | 1038 | 13 |
| 2019 | 74 | Devin Singletary, Buff. | 151 | 775 | 29 | 194 | 969 | 4 |
| 2015 | 77 | Duke Johnson, Clev. | 104 | 379 | 61 | 534 | 913 | 2 |
| 2014 | 75 | Tre Mason, St.L. | 179 | 765 | 16 | 148 | 913 | 5 |
| 2015 | 95 | Matt Jones, Wash. | 144 | 490 | 19 | 304 | 794 | 4 |
| 2014 | 94 | Terrance West, Clev. | 171 | 673 | 11 | 64 | 737 | 5 |
| 2014 | 96 | Jerick McKinnon, Minn. | 113 | 538 | 27 | 135 | 673 | 0 |
| 2018 | 71 | Royce Freeman, Den. | 130 | 521 | 14 | 72 | 593 | 5 |
| 2012 | 84 | Bernard Pierce, Balt. | 108 | 532 | 7 | 47 | 579 | 1 |
| 2020 | 86 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 112 | 481 | 14 | 95 | 576 | 5 |
| 2019 | 102 | Alexander Mattison, Minn. | 100 | 462 | 10 | 82 | 544 | 1 |
| 2017 | 89 | D'Onta Foreman, Hou. | 78 | 327 | 6 | 83 | 410 | 2 |
| 2015 | 73 | Tevin Coleman, Atl. | 87 | 392 | 2 | 14 | 406 | 1 |
| 2012 | 67 | Ronnie Hillman, Den. | 85 | 330 | 10 | 62 | 392 | 1 |
| 2016 | 90 | C.J. Prosise, Sea. | 30 | 172 | 17 | 208 | 380 | 1 |
| 2014 | 69 | Charles Sims, T.B. | 66 | 185 | 19 | 190 | 375 | 1 |
| 2013 | 96 | Knile Davis, K.C. | 70 | 242 | 11 | 75 | 317 | 5 |
| 2020 | 80 | Lynn Bowden, L.V. | 9 | 32 | 28 | 211 | 243 | 0 |
| 2016 | 73 | Kenyan Drake, Mia. | 33 | 179 | 9 | 46 | 225 | 2 |
| 2021 | 88 | Trey Sermon, S.F. | 41 | 167 | 3 | 26 | 193 | 1 |
| 2019 | 70 | Darrell Henderson, LAR | 39 | 147 | 4 | 37 | 184 | 0 |
| 2017 | 105 | James Conner, Pitt. | 32 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 0 |
| 2020 | 76 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 26 | 109 | 5 | 34 | 143 | 1 |
| 2020 | 93 | Darrynton Evans, Tenn. | 14 | 54 | 2 | 27 | 81 | 1 |
| 2014 | 97 | Dri Archer, Pitt. | 10 | 40 | 7 | 23 | 63 | 0 |
| 2019 | 87 | Damien Harris, N.E. | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
I don't think anyone needs to rush to select Robinson early, but if you draft Gibson, it makes sense to reach a little bit for the rookie. Some chance he carves out an early, and important, role in the offense.
--Andy Richardson