Ian Allan answers your fantasy fooball questions. In this edition. Is Kyle Pitts about to take over the tight end position? The recipe for the best auction values. The merits of going after quarterback-receiver tandems. Is J.K. Dobbins this year's steal at running back? And more.

Question 1

Why aren't we higher on JK Dobbins? I keep drafting him as a top 15-20 guy, and am surprised to see him consistently outside the top 30 behind guys like CEH.

Tyson Traveller (Twin Falls, ID)

His health is a question mark. He’s just over a year past an ACL surgery, and they’re being careful with him, not wanting any setbacks. He was slow to come off the PUP list, and there have been reports suggesting he might not play in their initial games, and that they’ll be easing him in, with a lesser workload than usual. So there’s that. And in Baltimore, they typically don’t use their running backs much at all in the passing game. In his last 11 games in 2020, Dobbins caught 11 passes. Typically with running backs, the tendency is to think about 1,000-yard rushing seasons and 100-yard games, but receiving is important (particularly in PPR formats). In PPR, if you have a running back who averages 6 yards per reception, then 30 rushing yards is worth 3 points. But 30 receiving yards is worth 8 points (3 for the yards, and 5 for the catches). In that Baltimore backfield, I’m more interested in using a later-round pick on Mike Davis. He looked like a nice fit for that offense in the preseason. I think he can be a Gus Edwards replacement, and I think he’ll be filling in for Dobbins for some games.

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Question 2

I have a question about auction values. If it doesn’t ask for lineup makeup or size of bench, how do we get accurate auction values?

Tony Neitzer (Zimmerman, MN)

I don’t think it’s enough to simply plug in number of starters and number of roster spots. There’s a human element involved. You have to look at each position and decide where the level of talent drops off. In a 12-team league, for example, there are 12 starting quarterbacks. But that doesn’t mean quarterback #13 is worth $1.00. Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr and Trey Lance are worth more than $1.00. And if every team is drafting three quarterbacks, a bunch of other quarterbacks are also worth more than $1.00. In general, I like to start with the assumption of how many players at each position will be drafted. Then I got down the list at each position until I get to the player that I feel is worth only $1.00. In a 12-team league with everyone drafting about one quarterback, for example, that would be Ryan Tannehill. He's worth only $1.00, all the quarterbacks coming after him are worth only $1.00. And the quarterbacks picked before Tannehill, their values are determined by measuring how much better they are than Tannehill. You follow this process at each position, and you’ve got yourself a draft board, and with prices that are accurate down to the penny. That is, if you pick a $2 quarterback and a $5 running back, their overall stat production will be the same as if you selected a $4 quarterback and a $3 running back.

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Question 3

I have heard a few "experts" mention that they think Kyle Pitts may finish as the #1 TE. This seems odd to me since that offense will likely finish in the bottom third of the league. I know he's their only weapon, but that just means teams will key on him. When was the last time a TE finished #1 on a bottom third offense?

Sean Albright (Severn, MD)

Bottom third, I think, is generous. That will be a bottom-5 offense. And when you look at the historical numbers, it’s unusual for a player to rise out of those kind of ashes. Below see the list of the last 100 tight ends to finish with top-5 numbers (using PPR scoring). Only four of those players came from teams that finished with bottom-5 passing numbers. Only 16 came from teams with bottom-10 numbers. The supporting documentation appears below. The final column shows the team rank (using 6 points for TD passes and 1 for every 10 yards). The guys in bold played for teams with bottom-5 passing stats. The guys from bottom-10 passing games are tagged with black dots.

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Question 4

What are your thoughts on roster double up, matching QB to WR? Burrow to Chase, Williams to Herbert? Important to include in draft of roster if possible?

Craig Leedy (Sacramento)

In the abstract, if there are two killer combos, I would rather have a quarterback and a wide receiver from different teams. If Justin Herbert throws 4 TDs, after all, you probably won’t need multiple touchdowns from Mike Williams that week. But Burrow-Chase looks like an awfully sweet combo. And if you selected Chase in the first round, your team-building modest is predicated around Cincinnati’s offense having a big year. If you could peek in Biff Tannen’s Sports Almanac and see that Chase in the 2022 season finished with 18 TD catches, that would make you feel a lot better about drafting Burrow among the very best of the quarterbacks. You’re trying to claw your way to the top of your league, past 11 other teams, so makes sense to put a bunch of chips on a bet that you feel good about.

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Question 5

I've been subscribing to the "zag" theory of drafting WRs before RBs for a long time now. The attrition rate is just too high for me to stomach not getting an entire season from one of those draft slots. So I bet on sure things and then hoover up all the rookie RBs while my competitors are grabbing third-tier receivers. It generally works out because a couple rookie running backs will rise to the top (see August 29 Factoid). What I want to know is if the attrition rate at RB can be quantified? If you look back at your top 20 preseason RB rankings, how many of those Game 1 starters were still starting at Game 15? Of those preseason top 20, how many games were missed?

Brian Grzybowski (San Francisco)

If you pick through our stat projections, you’ll notice that we make more of an effort to factor in injury potential with running backs. Typically, we have them projected to play 14-15 games, while with wide receivers and tight ends, we tend to just operate under the assumption that almost everyone is playing a full season. But the numbers suggest that’s not really accurate. If you take look at the last 100 running games to finish with top-10 numbers, for example, they played in 1,284 games in their next season. That’s an average of about 3.2 missed games per season, and just over half of them missed at least two games. But wide receivers weren’t that much better. The last 100 wide receivers to finish with top-10 numbers combined to play in 1,393 games the next season. That’s about a game more than the running backs, but a third missed at least two games.

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Question 6

I have a draft Wednesday night so. I'm wondering about Shenault. I was considering him as a late round pick (full PPR). I think he may be in a better situation now but I don't have a lot of faith in Mayfield. Better to wait and see and grab him off the waiver wire?

Donald DeKeyser (Green Bay, WI)

The Jaguars have had him for a couple of years. They don’t think he can play. Panthers want to bring him in and kick the tires. That sounds like a waiver-wire guy to me.

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Question 7

Is the annual NFL team projected win percentage, i.e., the W-L record chart available? It is a useful tool when evaluating closely ranked players, "as a rising tide lifts all boats." Thank you for all the great analysis.

Douglas Eisemann (Springfield, VA)

I was doing that a few years back, but I didn’t know if anybody felt it was useful. I will try to squeeze it in somewhere in the next week, but I’ve got some other stuff that it will be coming in behind. Most notably, the final major revisions to the draft board (after the cutdowns to 53-man rosters). That will include projections for team passing and rushing stats, giving a general sense of the 32 offenses. Those will be posted on the website on Thursday.

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Question 8

I kept Dalvin Cook and Mike Evans in a 10 team, half-ppr league that decided to keep 2 players at the end of last season and moving forward. I finished 4th in points but 1st in points against which resulted in last place. With the first overall pick, my choices are Kamara, Fournette, Barkley, Zeke, Conner, or Williams. I would like to draft Javonte Williams as a keeper but am worried it will cost me this season. What should I do?

Tom Newsted ()

Only one of the running backs you mentioned hasn’t already played at least five seasons. Javonte Williams. He’s the one guy you mention who’s still ascending.

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Question 9

I have drawn the #4 spot once and #5 spot twice in my three standard-scoring drafts. While I love this area of the draft, I might end up with three teams that look almost the same. Would you intentionally change your strategy -- especially in rounds 1-2 -- to provide a different look in one team? So instead of taking one of the big three WRs, I could take Henry or Ekeler.

Richard Weber (Fort Myers, FL)

I suppose you could go that route if there were a few guys you felt were pretty similar. But I think you’ll find that when you get into the meat of the draft, you’ll be getting a bunch of the same players. There are usually a dozen or so situations where you see it differently than the general expectation, and those guys are going to tend to land on your rosters. For me, most rosters I’m putting together include Nyheim Hines, Allen Lazard, Isaiah McKenzie, Brandon Aiyuk, Dameon Pierce and Dalton Schultz.

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Question 10

I can keep two of Dalton Schultz, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or Elijah Moore each for a year in a half PPR league. My sweet FI price sheet says go in that order, but I can't help but think I'm missing out on Elijah's ceiling. While the first two are primarily blessed with opportunity, it seems the sentiment on Moore is about his natural ability. What do these three guys realistically do in 2022?

David Fetterman (Kirkland, WA)

Moore had some good games last year, but they all came when Zach Wilson wasn’t playing. And I worry about that being a lesser team that has a bunch of other wide receivers who are pretty good. Garrett Wilson was the 10th pick of the draft. It might not be long before he’s better than Moore. And Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios are better than third and fourth receivers on the vast majority of rosters.

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Question 11

Can keep 2. Akers in 9th. G Davis in 8th Dobbins in 7th. With all negative injury news around the RBs I think Davis is one. Was all set to keep Akers but looks like he is in a true committee now. Who would you keep ? I have a week to decide

Vernon Jones (Marriottsville, MD)

I would keep Akers. I don’t know that Dobbins is truly healthy. And Akers is two rounds cheaper.

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Question 12

We keep 2. I will keep Pittman 9th round. My other options I am waffling on are Trey Lance at round 10 and Elijah Moore round 12. My 1st inclination was and remains E. Moore because of his athletic abilities and ADP is higher.

Dan Thomson (Ferndale, WA)

I think you can make a case for either guy. Moore would be a depth receiver – a good reserve, I think. With Lance, you would securing one of the best second quarterbacks, with a chance he might run and pass his way into being the breakout player at the position. If you keep Lance, it gives you the luxury of being able to sit back and draft your No. 1 quarterback when you feel the price is right. And if you don’t add a more coveted quarterback, that might be just fine. I understand that the 49ers are keeping Jimmy G around as an insurance policy, but I still have considerable interest in Lance.

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Question 13

I'm in a half point PPR league. We get 1 keeper player. My choices are Josh Allen with a 6th round compensation, or Cooper Kupp with a 4th round compensation. What say ye?

Randy Beidler (Pottstown, PA)

Kupp makes the most sense. Would be one of the first players selected in that kind of format. Allen’s a great player, but quarterbacks don’t tend to be as valued as wide receivers in typical leagues, given the supply-demand dynamics.

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