Fantasy News

December 14, 2022

Defensive matchups

Statistical rankings of upcoming defensive matchups

The performance numbers indicate that the best defensive matchups of the next three weeks are all coming up this weekend. Philadelphia, Minnesota and Kansas City, if past performance correlates with future success, could help lift fantasy teams to wins in playoff games.

This is a technique we use from time to time. You take the performance of each offense, match it up against each defense, and see what the composite numbers say. It’s a way to get a general idea of what’s reasonable to expect in any given game.

Based on those numbers, the Eagles this week will have the best defense that we’ll see through Week 17. They rank near the top in both sacks and takeaways, and they’re playing against an opponent (Chicago) that’s been generous in those areas.

The Eagles thus far have 49 sacks, while the Bears have allowed 42, making for a combined total of 91 (in 26 games), 5 more than in any other game in the near future.

The statistically worst defense matchup of the next three weeks also occurs this week, with Cincinnati at Tampa Bay. The Bengals actually have a good defense, while Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled, but combined I see (in 26 games) only 39 sacks, 15 interceptions, 14 lost fumbles and no touchdowns.

These are not my suggested rankings. They don’t factor in weather, injuries or how teams are currently playing. But it’s one way to get an initial impression. Games ranked using 6 points for touchdowns (scored by defense or special teams), 2 for every turnover and 1 for every sack.

DEFENSIVE MATCHUP AVERAGES (Weeks 15-17)
Wk	Defense	Opp	Sack	Int	Fum	TD	Points
15	Philadelphia	at Chi.	91	26	15	5	203
15	Minnesota	Ind.	76	26	20	5	198
15	Kansas City	at Hou.	75	24	12	8	195
16	Buffalo	at Chi.	77	24	16	5	187
17	Dallas	at Ten.	83	17	21	4	183
17	New England	at Phil.	79	16	15	7	183
17	Jacksonville	at Hou.	56	26	16	7	182
17	Philadelphia	N.E.	82	26	15	3	182
15	San Francisco	at Sea.	70	23	17	5	180
16	New England	at Cle.	72	22	17	5	180
15	New England	Atl.	73	22	16	5	179
16	Dallas	Phil.	82	14	19	5	178
16	Tennessee	Hou.	66	25	10	7	178
17	NY Giants	Ind.	75	18	23	3	175
16	Denver	at LAR	78	24	12	4	174
16	LA Chargers	at Ind.	71	18	18	5	173
15	Green Bay	LAR	70	23	12	5	170
16	San Francisco	Was.	73	25	11	4	169
17	Miami	at N.O.	61	19	14	7	169
15	Arizona	at Den.	68	16	13	7	168
17	Detroit	Chi.	68	20	15	5	168
17	LA Chargers	LAR	71	17	13	6	167
16	Kansas City	Sea.	76	17	16	4	166
17	Kansas City	Den.	86	16	12	4	166
15	Dallas	at Jac.	71	17	21	3	165
17	Baltimore	Pitt.	73	27	13	2	165
17	NY Jets	at Sea.	73	21	13	3	159
17	Seattle	NYJ	65	21	17	3	159
16	Cleveland	N.E.	60	17	14	6	158
17	San Francisco	at L.V.	59	24	10	5	157
15	Buffalo	Mia.	63	23	14	3	155
17	Buffalo	at Cin.	73	22	13	2	155
15	Baltimore	at Cle.	66	23	18	1	154
15	Seattle	S.F.	57	18	18	4	153
16	Baltimore	Atl.	67	23	17	1	153
15	Atlanta	at N.E.	50	21	12	6	152
16	Minnesota	NYG	74	17	16	2	152
17	Minnesota	at G.B.	54	21	16	4	152
17	Cleveland	at Was.	64	17	11	5	150
17	Atlanta	Ari.	54	20	10	6	150
15	Miami	at Buff.	61	18	14	4	149
15	Carolina	Pitt.	62	23	8	4	148
15	Las Vegas	N.O.	54	21	14	4	148
16	LA Rams	Den.	68	17	14	3	148
16	Philadelphia	at Dall.	65	27	11	1	147
16	Tampa Bay	at Ari.	75	17	10	3	147
16	Seattle	at K.C.	55	22	18	2	147
15	Washington	NYG	78	12	16	2	146
17	Arizona	at Atl.	52	17	15	5	146
16	Cincinnati	at N.O.	49	21	15	4	145
16	Miami	G.B.	57	16	13	5	145
15	Denver	Ari.	69	21	10	2	143
16	Washington	at S.F.	57	14	16	4	141
15	NY Jets	Det.	58	19	10	4	140
16	Jacksonville	at NYJ	54	20	17	2	140
17	Tampa Bay	Car.	66	17	11	3	140
16	Carolina	Det.	47	17	11	6	139
17	Washington	Cle.	61	16	17	2	139
15	Tampa Bay	Cin.	76	16	9	2	138
16	Detroit	at Car.	54	19	14	3	138
15	Detroit	at NYJ	57	19	15	2	137
15	Pittsburgh	at Car.	53	24	9	3	137
15	Cleveland	Balt.	57	15	12	4	135
15	LA Rams	at G.B.	48	18	16	3	134
16	Houston	at Ten.	64	16	16	1	134
15	NY Giants	at Was.	66	15	15	1	132
16	Green Bay	at Mia.	52	20	10	3	130
16	Arizona	T.B.	42	14	15	5	130
16	Atlanta	at Balt.	47	19	10	4	129
15	Tennessee	at LAC	64	16	10	2	128
15	LA Chargers	Ten.	60	10	15	3	128
16	Las Vegas	at Pitt.	60	22	9	1	128
16	NY Jets	Jac.	62	18	12	1	128
17	LA Rams	at LAC	55	16	14	2	127
16	Pittsburgh	L.V.	48	24	6	3	126
17	Indianapolis	at NYG	76	10	15	0	126
17	Cincinnati	Buff.	49	20	15	1	125
17	Denver	at K.C.	53	22	13	0	123
17	Pittsburgh	at Balt.	55	23	8	1	123
15	Houston	K.C.	50	21	15	0	122
16	New Orleans	Cin.	72	12	10	1	122
17	New Orleans	Mia.	62	13	11	2	122
17	Green Bay	Min.	58	19	10	1	122
16	NY Giants	at Min.	63	13	16	0	121
16	Chicago	Buff.	44	20	15	1	120
17	Carolina	at T.B.	46	16	12	3	120
16	Indianapolis	LAC	63	12	13	1	119
17	Las Vegas	S.F.	49	16	13	2	119
15	Indianapolis	at Min.	66	14	12	0	118
17	Houston	Jac.	52	16	16	0	116
15	Jacksonville	Dall.	39	22	13	1	115
15	New Orleans	at L.V.	57	13	9	2	113
15	Chicago	Phil.	50	12	13	2	112
17	Chicago	at Det.	35	16	13	3	111
17	Tennessee	Dall.	49	21	7	1	111
15	Cincinnati	at T.B.	39	15	14	0	97

—Ian Allan

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