The thing I always say with fantasy football is that getting to the playoffs is largely about skill but winning is mostly about luck. It's not perfect -- you can certainly have an unlucky season, or make a brilliant playoff call that helps you advance -- but it holds up more often than not. Losing because you faced someone like Kirk Cousins or Zay Jones, or lost Jonathan Taylor on his first touch, is just dumb luck. Happened to a lot of us I imagine.
Every time I lose due to bad luck, I try to remind myself that an equal number of teams win on every such instance. One person's unlucky loss is someone else's lucky win. So it all evens out. Does that make me feel better? Not really. Then I try to pick through the matchup and find some examples where I was lucky. OK, so I lost on that last-minute Curtis Samuel play, but I wouldn't have been winning but for the fortunate catch elsewhere! That also doesn't work, because I dig up even more examples of bad luck, like the Pick Six taken away from the 49ers Defense as a for instance. Painful.
I'm left with no choice but to say, yeah OK that was unlucky. Another league, another year's win; that was lucky. Next year will hopefully be lucky again
Colts at Vikings: Not sure where to go with this one. You've probably seen the Matt Ryan memes, and I suppose he deserves some blame for not moving the offense at all from the second quarter on. But so much bizarre stuff in this game, where everything went wrong for the Vikings in the first half and right for them in the second half. And still with all that, if the Colts had converted a late 4th and 1 that wound up inches short, they'd have won. I started Jonathan Taylor in two playoff leagues (saw some talk about teams that drafted Taylor didn't make the playoffs; not true), and they're both probably or definitely toast. Fantasy playoffs, kind of a crap shoot. But nice games for all the other guys you should have been starting or could have been facing. Stunning win for the Vikings, who now have to find motivation for their final three relatively meaningless games. Colts, an historic collapse in a miserable season.
Ravens at Browns: Perhaps we could talk more about the other two games that were played on Saturday? This was a grueling eyesore, with J.K. Dobbins and Nick Chubb perhaps the only highlights for both teams combined. Perhaps things will be better for Deshaun Watson in the 2023 season. Right now, he doesn't look good, and neither does the offense. Tyler Huntley did a nice job filling in for Lamar Jackson a year ago. This year? His play has probably only helped Jackson's contract talks. Strange usage of DeSean Jackson on a slant near the goal line; the corner essentially blew Jackson out of his way for an interception. But Baltimore's other wide receivers are no better, with Demarcus Robinson catching short, harmless stuff (and losing a critical fumble) and Devin Duvernay doing very little since September. Nothing against the Ravens but ideally neither of these teams makes the playoffs.
Dolphins at Bills: There was a lot of scary talk about the weather in this game, which I'll concede we contributed to. But we didn't actually say not to start Josh Allen or Tyreek Hill, as a for instance; Tua and Jaylen Waddle were generally ranked poorly for reasons having less to do with weather and more to do with recent struggles. Anyway, it was cold but didn't actually snow until late and obviously both teams scored pretty well. Fantastic game for Josh Allen, and a second straight strong one for Dawson Knox -- looks like a regular starter in the remaining games. Raheem Mostert also really impressive in this game, with Miami getting its ground game working (of course Salvon Ahmed vultured a touchdown).
Falcons at Saints: Predictably ugly, with Juwan Johnson having a big game for the Saints and Taysom Hill making some plays, and the Falcons running the ball well (both Cordarrelle and Allgeier) but not doing much via the pass, with Desmond Ridder struggling. Falcons still might have won, but Drake London lost a late fumble and in general the offense didn't do nearly enough. Is it too late to redraw the divisions before putting an NFC South team into the playoffs? I guess.
Steelers at Panthers: Steelers defense has been playing well of late, and the Cardinals are using Sam Darnold at quarterback, so this game wasn't entirely shocking. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren did most of the work for the offense, Pat Freiermuth oddly not targeted at all; Diontae Johnson the only guy with volume. Lousy game for D'Onta Foreman, Chuba Hubbard didn't do a lot (one longer catch and run). DJ Moore had a good game and impressive touchdown catch, naturally on a lot of benches no doubt.
Eagles at Bears: I don't know if he'll win the actual MVP, but Jalen Hurts is certainly doing his part for fantasy MVP of late. Another huge game in a week where it seemed like there was at least a chance he wouldn't need to do much. But Justin Fields and the Bears were extra plucky, including on defense, picking off Hurts a couple of times early and forcing a Miles Sanders fumble too. But Hurts kept bringing the offense downfield and running in touchdowns, also giving A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith big games along the way. Looked like the Eagles had pulled away until a totally blown coverage gave Justin Fields a long touchdown pass, and things got a little dramatic. But Eagles got the job done.
Kansas City at Texans: Kudos to the Texans, who gave Dallas and Kansas City all they could handle the last two weeks. Lost both of course, but they're not mailing it in. If only their quarterback weren't awful, and if they had Dameon Pierce at the key moments last week and in all of this game, they'd probably have won at least one of them. Big game for Jerick McKinnon, with Houston more competitive than expected, and Isiah Pacheco losing an early fumble that might have hurt his chances after that. Pacheco still looked good running it, but would have been nice for those of us who started him if he did a lot more. Instead, McKinnon scored twice. Harrison Butker missed an extra point and then a 51-yard field goal at the end. JuJu Smth-Schuster again the best wideout. Typical big numbers for Patrick Mahomes.
Cowboys at Jaguars: In the long run, this game might not matter much to Dallas. (It will if they beat the Eagles next week, I suppose. But it's been weird to see their defense having some struggles of late, disappointing (to me) to see Dalton Schultz being forgotten about at times, and two straight weeks now where they should have or did lose to a lesser AFC South opponent. Props to Trevor Lawrence, who led just enough of a late field goal drive to force overtime (and nearly did so on the previous possession). Big game for Zay Jones. Future looks kind of bright for the Jaguars on days like this.
Lions at Jets: I'm not really sure why the Jets didn't go with Joe Flacco rather than Zach Wilson. Wilson passed for 317 yards and 2 TDs, but if you watched the game you saw a lot of errant throws, one terrible interception and another where he was pretty fortunate to avoid one. I'm not sure if it's Wilson or Robert Saleh who deserves the most blame for the Jets not using any of their 3 timeouts until there were only 19 seconds left in the game, and eating their final one before lining up an unlikely 58-yard field goal, but the lack of urgency time management -- shell-shocked by the Lions hitting a long fourth-down touchdown to a blocking tight end, I suppose -- was glaring. It was the kind of loss the Lions have had for years and the Jets have had for just as long, and apparently still do. If New York misses the playoffs, and they should, this is the one they'll remember. Note to self, the Lions have fixed their run defense.
Cardinals at Broncos: Best that can be said is at least all of the sacks Russell Wilson has been taking aren't all on him. Brett Rypien was sacked 7 times and watching the game it felt like twice that. But the running game with Latavius Murray and Marlon Mack was outstanding and the Cardinals offense fell apart as soon as it lost Colt McCoy to injury (and was struggling even before that). Be happy for what you got out of James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins and (including the Denver passing game) Jerry Jeudy. Even that production looked beyond the Arizona and offense and Denver quarterback.
Patriots at Raiders: So much to talk about in this game, but it feels beside the point to deal with anything before the final play, which is one of the most incredible things I've seen in all my years of watching football. I suppose I can kind of see what Rhamondre Stevenson (who had a great game, guess he wasn't at all hurt) was thinking with his lateral, which seemed harmless enough. But Jakobi Meyers, poor Jakobi Meyers, I just don't know what was going through his head with a crazy cross-field lateral to a defender (former teammate, so maybe?) in a tie game headed for overtime. Instead we had the humor (non-Patriots fans) of Chandler Jones stiff-arming Mac Jones and waltzing into the end zone, wildly shaking up the AFC playoff picture, not too New England's benefit. Seems like the Raiders also benefited from a blown replay review. Just nuts, and the 6 points from Pierre Strong didn't thrill anyone either. The dud by Davante Adams didn't help anyone except those facing him. Anyway, crazy game, and if Bill Belichick ever doesn't sleep after losses, I'd say that would be one of them.
Titans at Chargers: Tennessee's defense has struggled lately, which went into my optimism regarding Justin Herbert and the passing game. That didn't pan out, obviously; Herbert's big play to Mike Williams at the end to set up the game-winning field goal wasn't enough for those who started him. Good yards, but not enough touchdowns, with both coming on run plays. Sorry. Nice game for Derrick Henry at least. Both these teams are probably going to playoffs, maybe they'll meet again in an undercard game.
Bengals at Buccaneers: Weird game, that was all Bucs early and all Bengals late. Big passing numbers from Brady and all his receivers, lesser yards from Joe Burrow but 4 TDs, including all of his main wideouts; only Joe Mixon really disappointed. Does anyone want to win the NFC South? Bengals looking good in the AFC North.
Giants at Commanders: Gut-punch loss for Washington here in a weekend of gut-punch losses. Washington's offense was moving the ball well early, but passed up an early long field goal, and then stumbled in critical moments after that, with Giants pass rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux involved in nearly all of them. He basically took over the line of scrimmage, harassing Taylor Heinicke into the critical mistakes that swung things. Couple of controversial calls and non-calls late, but Washington can blame itself for some of what happened. Nice games for Saquon especially but Brian Robinson also. Washington now travels to San Francisco and needs to hope they catch the Niners on an off day.
Monday, Monday: I suppose there are some matchups hinging on Aaron Jones, Christian Watson or perhaps Cam Akers, and yeah the Packers are technically alive for a playoff spot. But I think emotions will be fairly low for this game, and so is the star power. Rams have been competitive the past couple of weeks, but hard to bet against Green Bay bringing more intensity to this one; certainly more healthy talent. Packers 26, Rams 17.