MINNESOTA (at Green Bay)
This game is more important to the Packers, fighting for their playoff lives, but it's significant for the Vikings, too. They'd want a potential divisional-round matchup with San Francisco to be in Minnesota, so ...
... keeping that No. 2 seed -- or moving up to No. 1, if the Eagles should stumble -- is important. Green Bay's defense has been fairly average, currently 17th in yards and 18th in points allowed. Decent enough matchup for Minnesota's top-12 offense. Minnesota put up 403 yards though just 2 TDs (but 3 field goals, including a pair of chip shots) while winning the Week 1 meeting, 23-7. Weather will need to be looked at later in the week (for now, we're assuming it won't be an issue). ... The Packers rank 1st ...
This report is taken from today's Week 17 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 22 pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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... against the pass, but we're not going to steer anyone away from Kirk Cousins. He threw for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns in the earlier meeting, and Green Bay hasn't done anything special against most of the better quarterbacks it's faced.
| Good QBs versus the Packers | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pass | Run | TD |
| Cousins, Min. | 277 | 0 | 2 |
| Brady, T.B. | 271 | -1 | 1 |
| Allen, Buf. | 218 | 49 | 2 |
| Goff, Det. | 137 | -1 | 2 |
| Prescott, Dall. | 265 | 6 | 3 |
| Tannehill, Ten. | 333 | -3 | 3 |
| Hurts, Phil. | 153 | 157 | 2 |
| Tagovailoa, Mia. | 310 | 0 | 1 |
Quarterbacks excluded from the list: Bailey Zappe, Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield and Justin Fields twice. Among the good ones, only Goff (in a win) didn't put up at least 265 total yards, and only Brady and Tagovailoa (apparently playing through a concussion) didn't deliver multiple touchdowns. ... The Vikings have bigger team goals in mind, but are probably aware that Justin Jefferson is just 208 yards away from Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving record (1,964 yards) with two games to play, and 244 away from becoming the first 2,000-yard receiver. It won't necessarily change anything they're trying to do, which is getting the ball into their best player's hands. Jefferson's numbers have only become more ridiculous lately, with Minnesota engaging in weekly shootouts (and this could be another, weather permitting; the early forecast looks OK). He's caught 11-12 passes three weeks in a row, for a total of 479 yards in those games, with 2 touchdowns. He was even better, remarkably, in the earlier meeting (9 catches for 184 yards and 2 touchdowns). Adam Thielen has been far less impactful, averaging 4.5 catches for 46 yards, with just 5 touchdowns. He caught only 3 for 36 in the earlier meeting, with Jefferson going off. But Thielen has been a little busier lately, with touchdowns in three of five and at least 7 receptions in two of those. Presumably he'll benefit from a greater focus on Jefferson this time around. ... K.J. Osborn got everyone's attention with a 10-157-1 game in the incredible comeback against the Colts, but that's definitely the outlier. That's his only game with even 40 yards in his last 10 contests, and it required his quarterback throwing the ball 54 times. He's a modest No. 3, averaging 3 catches and 32 yards, with 4 touchdowns. ... Green Bay ranks just 27th against the run, allowing 144 yards per game and 16 touchdowns (8th-most). Dalvin Cook carried 20 times for 90 yards in the earlier meeting, with Alexander Mattison chipping in 8 for 36 (4.5 yards per attempt for both). Cook has faced this defense five other times the last three seasons, and they've never had much of an answer for him. He's scored 8 touchdowns in those games, and gone over 150 rushing yards twice. His lone poor game in that span was a blowout loss at Green Bay a year ago, when he got only 9 carries. The matchup is good and the Packers will probably be more concerned about Jefferson, so Cook should deliver his usual types of numbers. Mattison (who's averaging just 5 touches per game) is best saved for those who have meaningful games in Week 18, with the Vikings at least potentially in position to get key starters, like Cook, out of harm's way. (If it plays out that way, of course, the Vikings will be putting forth less than their usual effort, with other key starters also missing.) ... T.J. Hockenson comes off a monster performance, his second such game this season. His more modest games with the Vikings have still been pretty good; in seven other games he's averaged nearly 6 catches for 48 yards, with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion. The Packers have allowed only slightly fewer touchdowns to tight ends (7) than wide receivers (11). ... Greg Joseph nailed the long game-winner to beat the Giants, his fourth 9-point performance in his last seven. He had 11 in the earlier meeting. The Packers have been a little better than average against kickers, allowing just under 7 points to the position. ... The Vikings Defense has been better in fantasy areas than in NFL terms (where it's currently bottom-5 in both yards and points allowed). Minnesota is just average in sacks (36) but has 23 takeaways -- 13 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries, top-12 in both. Aaron Rodgers takes just 2 sacks per game but has made more errant throws this season. His 11 interceptions are nearly as many as he threw the last three years combined. The Vikings had 4 sacks and 2 takeaways against Rodgers in Week 1.