Fantasy Index Weekly

January 27, 2023

Championship Game Rankings

49ers backfield questionable

Over the course of this week, we've previewed the four teams playing on Sunday. Now it's time to see how the ranking shake out. There are some injury concerns, especially with the 49ers backfield.

Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Elijah Mitchell (groin) didn't practice at all on either Wednesday or Thursday. There's not much doubt that McCaffrey will play, he said as much himself after the game last Sunday, but ideally he'll get in at least a limited practice today. Mitchell seems iffier, in that a player playing through a calf injury seems more reasonable than a groin injury; running backs need their groins. For now, I scaled back expectations for McCaffrey a little and Mitchell a lot, assigning more of that work to Jordan Mason. It's debatable whether the offense would lose much with Mason in the lineup for Mitchell, although McCaffrey playing fewer snaps would be a significant negative for the 49ers.

Deebo Samuel (ankle) was limited in practice both days, but not much doubt he's playing at something close to his usual involvement. He could also see more carries with the running backs banged up.

The injury most were actually worried about all week, Patrick Mahomes' ankle, seems to not be a major issue. Mahomes practiced fully both days. I question whether he'll be quite as mobile or inclined to make plays while running around as usual, but straight off the injury report, he's fine.

Kansas City hasn't activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire from IR, so no telling if he's playing (they don't have to list practice participation for him). I don't expect him to play much even if he's activated. Mecole Hardman has practiced on a limited basis both days. He's missed a lot of time, so even if he's active, he won't necessarily get on the field much.

Cincinnati probably won't have Jonah Williams or Alex Cappa, who didn't practice either of the last two days. That didn't hurt them at Buffalo, but Kansas City has a better pass rush. Hayden Hurst (calf) popped up on Thursday's report as limited. He wasn't listed on Wednesday, indicating the issue cropped up in practice, an aggravation of an injury he’s been dealing with for a while. That's a concern that will need to be examined on Friday's injury report, but Hurst says he’s playing. When Hurst missed three games late in the year, Mitchell Wilcox caught 10 passes for 79 yards and a score -- not as big a part of the passing game, but perhaps a serviceable fill-in for the desperate, if Hurst’s optimism is unfounded.

The Eagles injury report isn't useful. The team didn't practice on Wednesday, and on Thursday held a lot of players out -- most notably from a fantasy perspective, A.J. Brown -- with a "not injury related - resting player" designation. So they're pretty much healthy.

Rankings are below. If the final injury report later today sheds more light on some of these players, I'll post in the comments below.

PLAYER RANKINGS
Rk	Pos	Team	Player	Pass	Run	Rec	Tot	TDP	TD	Std	PPR
1	QB	PHI	Jalen Hurts	230	49	0	279	1.43	.55	25.5	25.5
2	QB	CIN	Joe Burrow	259	20	0	279	2.02	.23	24.4	24.4
3	QB	KC	Patrick Mahomes	252	9	0	262	1.93	.07	21.7	21.7
4	WR	CIN	JaMarr Chase	0	1	79	80	.00	.66	11.9	18.9
5	RB	SF	Christian McCaffrey	0	58	35	93	.00	.86	14.5	18.7
6	QB	SF	Brock Purdy	218	5	0	223	1.44	.16	18.1	18.1
7	TE	KC	Travis Kelce	1	0	71	72	.01	.55	10.6	16.1
8	RB	CIN	Joe Mixon	0	67	24	91	.00	.55	12.4	15.6
9	WR	PHI	A.J. Brown	0	0	75	75	.00	.48	10.4	15.1
10	WR	PHI	DeVonta Smith	0	0	63	63	.00	.37	8.5	13.4
11	TE	PHI	Dallas Goedert	0	0	61	61	.00	.38	8.4	13.0
12	RB	KC	Isiah Pacheco	0	70	11	81	.00	.57	11.6	12.7
13	WR	SF	Deebo Samuel	0	24	44	68	.00	.40	9.2	12.7
14	WR	CIN	Tee Higgins	0	0	52	52	.00	.41	7.7	11.4
15	RB	PHI	Miles Sanders	0	60	5	65	.00	.56	9.8	11.0
16	TE	SF	George Kittle	0	0	48	48	.00	.42	7.4	11.0
17	TE	CIN	Hayden Hurst	0	0	42	42	.00	.29	5.9	10.8
18	RB	KC	Jerick McKinnon	0	24	23	47	.00	.54	8.0	10.4
19	WR	KC	JuJu Smith-Schuster	0	0	46	46	.00	.31	6.5	10.3
20	WR	SF	Brandon Aiyuk	0	1	46	47	.00	.25	6.3	9.7
21	WR	KC	Kadarius Toney	1	6	38	45	.00	.29	6.2	9.5
22	WR	CIN	Tyler Boyd	1	0	37	37	.00	.31	5.5	8.3
23	PK	PHI	Jake Elliott	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.6	7.6
24	PK	KC	Harrison Butker	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.6	7.6
25	PK	CIN	Evan McPherson	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.4	7.4
26	RB	SF	Elijah Mitchell	0	38	7	44	.00	.29	6.2	7.3
27	PK	SF	Robbie Gould	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	7.2	7.2
28	RB	CIN	Samaje Perine	0	20	13	33	.00	.20	4.5	6.2
29	WR	SF	Jauan Jennings	0	0	26	26	.00	.12	3.3	5.7
30	WR	KC	M. Valdes-Scantling	0	0	28	28	.00	.18	3.9	5.6
31	RB	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	0	21	8	29	.00	.23	4.3	5.4
32	WR	PHI	Quez Watkins	0	0	12	12	.00	.10	1.8	2.7
33	WR	CIN	Trent Irwin	0	1	10	11	.00	.12	1.9	2.6
34	WR	KC	Justin Watson	0	0	13	13	.00	.06	1.6	2.4
35	TE	KC	Noah Gray	0	0	10	10	.00	.06	1.4	2.4
36	RB	SF	Kyle Juszczyk	0	1	7	8	.00	.11	1.5	2.2
37	RB	SF	Jordan Mason	0	12	0	12	.00	.11	1.9	1.9
38	RB	PHI	Boston Scott	0	10	0	10	.00	.10	1.7	1.8
39	WR	PHI	Zach Pascal	0	0	7	7	.00	.03	0.9	1.6
40	WR	KC	Skyy Moore	0	2	5	7	.00	.03	0.9	1.4
41	WR	KC	Mecole Hardman	0	0	5	5	.00	.06	0.9	1.3
42	WR	SF	Ray-Ray McCloud	0	1	3	4	.00	.01	0.6	.8
43	TE	SF	Tyler Kroft	0	0	3	3	.00	.02	0.4	.7
44	RB	KC	Michael Burton	0	1	2	3	.00	.04	0.5	.7
45	TE	KC	Blake Bell	0	0	3	3	.00	.02	0.4	.6
46	WR	CIN	Trent Taylor	0	1	1	2	.00	.02	0.4	.5
47	RB	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	0	1	1	2	.00	.02	0.3	.4
48	TE	PHI	Jack Stoll	0	0	1	1	.00	.01	0.2	.3
50	TE	CIN	Mitchell Wilcox	0	0	1	1	.00	.01	0.2	.3
51	TE	PHI	Grant Calcaterra	0	0	1	1	.00	.00	0.1	.2
52	WR	SF	Danny Gray	0	0	1	1	.00	.00	0.1	.2
54	RB	CIN	Trayveon Williams	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.1	.1
55	TE	SF	Charlie Woerner	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.1	.1
56	TE	CIN	Devin Asiasi	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.0	.1
57	WR	PHI	Britain Covey	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.1	.1
58	WR	CIN	Stanley Morgan	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.0	.1
59	TE	SF	Ross Dwelley	0	0	0	0	.00	.00	0.0	.1

Below are the projections for the four defenses, in a scoring system that gives 1 point for sacks, 2 for takeaways, and 6 for touchdowns. Not much separation; the Eagles (for that monster pass rush during the season, and facing the least experienced quarterback) look best. If we're factoring in points allowed, I think the NFC game will be lower-scoring, but that's not news.

Uncertainty is just how mobile Patrick Mahomes will be on his ankle. The Bengals had the worst of the four pass rushes during the season, but I upped their sack numbers a little considering Mahomes' injury. They still grade out the lowest of the four, but will be too low if Mahomes is significantly compromised.

CHAMPIONSHIP DEFENSES
DEFENSE	Fum	Int	Sck	DTD	KTD	FF Pts
Philadelphia	0.55	0.76	3.2	0.11	0.03	6.70
San Francisco	0.60	0.85	2.6	0.13	0.02	6.50
Kansas City	0.45	0.65	3.0	0.12	0.01	5.99
Cincinnati	0.67	0.70	2.3	0.08	0.02	5.85

--Andy Richardson

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