The Broncos are hiring Sean Payton as their new head coach. What's one more first-round draft pick? They've got to salvage last season's pick expense to acquire Russell Wilson, and at least now they've got a proven offensive mind to give it a whirl. It's not like things could be any worse than what was the league's bottom-scoring offense a year ago.
Denver will also give up a 2nd-round pick in the deal, while getting a third, and exchange that enables both sides to save face ("We only 'lost' one pick!" "We almost got another first-rounder!"). In any case, picks are unknown commodities that teams blow all the time. Payton is somewhat more known.
It's fair, I think, to say that Payton might be a little overrated. Sure, the Saints were great for a long time, but they did have Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees for all those seasons. Despite that they won (and went to) only one Super Bowl, and even that was with the Vikings gift-wrapping it. A few years later they were robbed of another appearance by the Rams, so maybe these things even out.
But last year's Denver offense was really bad, and Payton's New Orleans offenses were really good. So it's hard to fault Denver for hoping he can salvage Russell Wilson. Hey, Brees was on the short side, too.
Payton was in New Orleans from 2006 through 2021, minus a one-year suspension in 2012. So as not to get too historical, we'll just look at his offenses his last nine years there, from 2013-2021. In the first of those seasons, Brees was 34 years old, same as Wilson is now.
The Saints scored at least 25 points per game eight times in those nine seasons -- every year until 2021, when Brees retired, Payton had Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill as his quarterbacks, and that was enough for him to walk away from the game. It was a top-10 offense eight times and top-5 five times.
Bottom line, even with Brees declining and the team saddled with salary cap problems, it was one of the league's best offenses. That's what Denver is trading for: the hopes he can work that same magic with Wilson and company.
| TEAM OFFENSE, SCORING (2013-2021) | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Avg |
| Kansas City | 26.9 | 22.1 | 25.3 | 24.3 | 25.9 | 35.3 | 28.2 | 29.6 | 30.0 | 27.5 |
| New Orleans | 25.9 | 25.1 | 25.5 | 29.3 | 28.0 | 31.5 | 28.6 | 30.1 | 22.8 | 27.4 |
| New England | 27.8 | 29.3 | 29.1 | 27.6 | 28.6 | 27.3 | 26.3 | 20.4 | 28.9 | 27.2 |
| Green Bay | 26.1 | 30.4 | 23.0 | 27.0 | 20.0 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 31.8 | 28.1 | 25.9 |
| Dallas | 27.4 | 29.2 | 17.2 | 26.3 | 22.1 | 21.2 | 27.1 | 24.7 | 33.1 | 25.4 |
| Philadelphia | 27.6 | 29.6 | 23.6 | 22.9 | 28.6 | 22.9 | 24.1 | 20.9 | 27.8 | 25.3 |
| Seattle | 26.1 | 24.6 | 26.4 | 22.1 | 22.9 | 26.8 | 25.3 | 28.7 | 24.7 | 25.3 |
| Baltimore | 20.0 | 25.6 | 20.5 | 21.4 | 24.7 | 24.3 | 33.2 | 29.3 | 24.2 | 24.8 |
| Indianapolis | 24.4 | 28.6 | 20.8 | 25.7 | 16.4 | 27.1 | 22.6 | 28.2 | 28.2 | 24.7 |
| Pittsburgh | 23.7 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 24.9 | 25.4 | 26.8 | 18.1 | 26.0 | 21.4 | 24.4 |
| Atlanta | 22.1 | 23.8 | 21.2 | 33.8 | 22.1 | 25.9 | 23.8 | 24.8 | 19.6 | 24.1 |
| Tampa Bay | 18.0 | 17.3 | 21.4 | 22.1 | 20.9 | 24.8 | 28.6 | 30.8 | 31.9 | 24.0 |
| LA Chargers | 24.8 | 21.8 | 20.0 | 25.6 | 22.2 | 26.8 | 21.1 | 24.0 | 29.6 | 24.0 |
| Minnesota | 24.4 | 20.3 | 22.8 | 20.4 | 23.9 | 22.5 | 25.4 | 26.9 | 26.6 | 23.7 |
| LA Rams | 21.8 | 20.3 | 17.5 | 14.0 | 29.9 | 32.9 | 24.6 | 23.3 | 28.8 | 23.7 |
| Arizona | 23.7 | 19.4 | 30.6 | 26.1 | 18.4 | 14.1 | 22.6 | 25.6 | 28.1 | 23.2 |
| Denver | 37.9 | 30.1 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 18.1 | 20.6 | 17.6 | 20.2 | 20.9 | 23.2 |
| Buffalo | 21.2 | 21.4 | 23.7 | 24.9 | 18.9 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 31.3 | 30.2 | 23.1 |
| Carolina | 22.9 | 21.2 | 31.3 | 23.1 | 22.7 | 23.5 | 21.3 | 21.9 | 19.0 | 23.0 |
| Tennessee | 22.6 | 15.9 | 18.7 | 23.8 | 20.9 | 19.4 | 25.1 | 30.7 | 26.2 | 22.6 |
| Cincinnati | 26.9 | 22.8 | 26.2 | 20.3 | 18.1 | 23.0 | 17.4 | 19.4 | 28.8 | 22.5 |
| San Francisco | 25.4 | 19.1 | 14.9 | 19.3 | 20.7 | 21.4 | 29.9 | 23.5 | 26.7 | 22.3 |
| Detroit | 24.7 | 20.1 | 22.4 | 21.6 | 25.6 | 20.3 | 21.3 | 23.6 | 20.3 | 22.2 |
| Las Vegas | 20.1 | 15.8 | 22.4 | 26.0 | 18.8 | 18.1 | 19.6 | 27.1 | 23.4 | 21.3 |
| Houston | 17.3 | 23.3 | 21.2 | 17.4 | 21.1 | 25.1 | 23.6 | 24.0 | 17.5 | 21.2 |
| Miami | 19.8 | 24.3 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 17.6 | 19.9 | 19.1 | 25.3 | 21.3 | 21.0 |
| Chicago | 27.8 | 19.9 | 20.9 | 17.4 | 16.5 | 26.3 | 17.5 | 23.3 | 19.4 | 21.0 |
| Washington | 20.9 | 18.8 | 24.3 | 24.8 | 21.4 | 17.6 | 16.6 | 20.9 | 20.9 | 20.7 |
| NY Giants | 18.4 | 23.8 | 26.3 | 19.4 | 15.4 | 23.1 | 21.3 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 20.1 |
| Cleveland | 19.3 | 18.7 | 17.4 | 16.5 | 14.6 | 22.4 | 20.9 | 25.5 | 21.8 | 19.7 |
| Jacksonville | 15.4 | 15.6 | 23.5 | 19.9 | 26.1 | 15.3 | 18.8 | 19.1 | 15.8 | 18.8 |
| NY Jets | 18.1 | 17.7 | 24.2 | 17.2 | 18.6 | 20.8 | 17.3 | 15.2 | 19.4 | 18.7 |
Personnel-wise, Payton has some nice things to work with. The receiving corps, in particular, is excellent. Nice group of wideouts, intriguing second-year tight end. Javonte Williams, if his recovery from knee surgery goes well, would be a nice lead back (but Denver will undoubtedly add to the position; Payton's Saints usually involved multiple backs, with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, most notably).
But most would agree that getting Wilson to play as he did earlier in his career, if that's possible, will be Job 1. It couldn't possibly be less likely than it was with Nathaniel Hackett around.
--Andy Richardson