Around the NFL

March 01, 2023

Leonard Fournette

Bucs expected to release starting running back

There was a report yesterday that the Bucs are planning to release Leonard Fournette. This is not a surprise, with the team seemingly looking at rebuilding type year. (At the moment, 2021 second-rounder Kyle Trask would be the starting quarterback.) Good news for Rachaad White, who could be Tampa Bay's starting running back next season, and uncertainty for Fournette himself.

Fournette has had a nice little run in Tampa Bay, a key part of the team's Super Bowl championship after the 2020 season and a strong three-down back in 2021. But it's debatable whether that player is there anymore. Fournette averaged just 3.5 yards per attempt last season. He battled injuries, which were probably a factor, but the years and mileage may have taken their toll.

Bucs GM Jason Licht said recently that he believes Fournette is still a three-down back in this league, and maybe some other team will agree. Would be interesting to see him with another playoff hopeful that doesn't have a clear lead running back. But a quote from that report -- "Fournette is only 28 years old and has plenty in the tank" -- is harder to take seriously. Running backs putting up good numbers at that age are increasingly rare.

It didn't use to be that way, but now it's fair to say that 28 is the new 30. Squeezing another strong season out of a 28-year-old or older running back is less likely than it used to be.

I pulled all the 28-plus running backs out of our big file since 2000. From 2000 to 2012, there were 95 running backs at least that age who put up top-25 numbers (PPR scoring); about 8 per season. Curtis Martin, Eddie George, LaDainian Tomlinson; those guys were thriving at that age.

But in the last 10 years -- 2013 to 2022 -- Just 51 running backs have put up top-25 numbers (5 per year). And it's been a steady downward trend each year. Thirty-one of those seasons (0ver 60 percent) came in 2013, 2014 and 2015. It's been especially lean lately. In the last five years, only 8 running backs aged 28 or older have finished with top-25 numbers (less than 2 per season). Those are the odds working against Fournette being a significant back in 2023.

TOP-25 RBS, AGED 28 OR OLDER (2013-PRESENT)
Year	Player	Age	Att	Yds	Rec	Yds	TD	PPR	Rk
2022	Derrick Henry, Ten.	28	349	1538	33	398	13	308.8	4
2022	Aaron Jones, G.B.	28	213	1121	59	395	7	254.6	7
2022	Jerick McKinnon, K.C.	30	72	291	56	512	10	198.3	20
2021	Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl.	30	153	618	52	548	11	234.6	10
2021	Melvin Gordon, Den.	28	203	918	28	213	10	201.1	18
2020	David Johnson, Hou.	29	147	691	33	314	8	181.5	21
2019	Mark Ingram, Balt.	30	202	1018	26	247	15	246.5	10
2018	Adrian Peterson, Was.	33	251	1042	20	208	8	193.0	19
2017	Mark Ingram, N.O.	28	230	1124	58	416	12	284.0	6
2017	LeSean McCoy, Buff.	29	287	1138	59	448	8	265.6	7
2017	Frank Gore, Ind.	34	261	961	29	245	4	173.6	20
2017	DeMarco Murray, Ten.	29	184	659	39	266	7	173.5	21
2017	Marshawn Lynch, Oak.	31	207	891	20	151	7	166.2	23
2016	LeSean McCoy, Buff.	28	234	1267	50	356	14	298.3	4
2016	DeMarco Murray, Ten.	28	293	1287	53	377	12	295.9	5
2016	LeGarrette Blount, N.E.	30	299	1161	7	38	18	234.9	9
2016	Frank Gore, Ind.	33	263	1025	38	277	8	216.2	12
2016	Bilal Powell, NYJ	28	131	722	58	388	5	199.0	17
2016	Matt Forte, NYJ	31	218	813	30	263	8	185.6	21
2016	Darren Sproles, Phil.	33	94	438	52	427	4	162.5	24
2015	Adrian Peterson, Min.	30	327	1485	30	222	11	266.7	2
2015	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	30	98	336	80	755	9	243.1	3
2015	DeAngelo Williams, Pitt.	32	200	907	40	367	11	235.4	5
2015	Matt Forte, Chi.	30	218	898	44	389	7	216.7	8
2015	Darren McFadden, Dall.	28	239	1089	40	328	3	201.7	13
2015	Frank Gore, Ind.	32	260	967	34	267	7	199.4	14
2015	James Starks, G.B.	29	148	601	43	392	5	172.3	21
2015	Rashad Jennings, NYG	30	195	863	29	296	4	168.9	22
2015	Jonathan Stewart, Car.	28	242	989	16	99	7	166.8	23
2014	Matt Forte, Chi.	29	266	1038	102	808	10	350.6	3
2014	Marshawn Lynch, Sea.	28	280	1306	37	367	17	306.3	4
2014	Arian Foster, Hou.	28	260	1246	38	327	13	277.6	5
2014	Jamaal Charles, K.C.	28	206	1033	40	291	14	256.4	7
2014	Justin Forsett, Balt.	29	235	1266	44	263	8	246.9	8
2014	Joique Bell, Det.	28	223	860	34	322	8	200.2	13
2014	Fred Jackson, Buff.	33	141	525	66	501	3	188.6	16
2014	Frank Gore, S.F.	31	255	1106	11	111	5	162.7	21
2014	Darren Sproles, Phil.	31	57	329	40	387	8	159.6	22
2014	Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind.	28	90	425	38	300	8	158.5	23
2013	Matt Forte, Chi.	28	289	1339	74	594	12	341.3	2
2013	Reggie Bush, Det.	28	223	1006	54	506	7	247.2	7
2013	Chris Johnson, Ten.	28	279	1077	42	345	10	244.2	9
2013	Adrian Peterson, Min.	28	279	1266	29	171	11	238.7	10
2013	Fred Jackson, Buff.	32	206	890	47	387	10	234.7	11
2013	Danny Woodhead, S.D.	28	106	429	76	605	8	227.4	12
2013	Pierre Thomas, N.O.	29	147	549	77	513	5	213.2	16
2013	Frank Gore, S.F.	30	276	1128	16	141	9	196.9	18
2013	Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac.	28	234	803	43	314	5	189.1	19
2013	Darren Sproles, N.O.	30	53	220	71	604	4	177.4	23
2013	Rashad Jennings, Oak.	28	163	733	36	292	6	174.5	24
2013	DeAngelo Williams, Car.	30	201	843	26	333	4	167.6	25

Fournette won't get a big contract. Perhaps a contender -- or team that believes it's a contender -- signs him to start, but they'll have someone else to take a good chunk of the work, as the Bucs did with White a year ago (especially as the season wore on). Whatever the case, it's a young man's game, especially at running back. Fantasy starters at 28 or 29; good luck. A cautionary note for the three guys who did it last year (Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones and Jerick McKinnon, who was more receiver than runner anyway), too.

--Andy Richardson

Leonard Fournette

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