Derek Carr is headed to New Orleans, and I like the fit. The supporting cast there is better than anything he’s ever had with the Raiders.
Not that Las Vegas hasn’t had some capable pass catchers. Davante Adams, most recently, and they’ve gotten big seasons out of Darren Waller, Amari Cooper and Hunter Renfrow earlier. The Saints will have at least one big-time receiver (Chris Olavo), and they’ll have a pair if they can get Michael Thomas back to playing something like he did a few years ago.
But it’s the defense that appeals to me. With the Raiders, Carr was always hamstrung by not getting much help from that side of the ball. Las Vegas has had a bottom-10 scoring defense five years in a row, and they didn’t rank higher than 20th in any of Carr’s nine seasons there. The Saints, on the other hand, have had an above-average defense six years in a row, and they’ve been in the top 10 the last three years.
| SCORING DEFENSE | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Raiders | Saints |
| 2022 | 26th | 9th |
| 2021 | 26th | 4th |
| 2020 | 30th | 5th |
| 2019 | 24th | 13th |
| 2018 | 32nd | 14th |
| 2017 | 20th | 10th |
| 2016 | 20th | 31th |
| 2015 | 22nd | 32nd |
| 2014 | 32nd | 28th |
In Carr’s nine seasons with the Raiders, those teams allowed an average of 26.2 points per game. The Saints in the same time period allowed 23.2 points per week. That’s 3 points per week, and that’s a lot in a league that features plenty of close game.
Carr went 63-79 as a starter with the Raiders. Had his defense allowed 3 fewer points in each of those games, he would have instead finished 76-66 (assuming he would have split the eight games lost by 3 points).
Per reports, it’s a multiple-year deal likely averaging $33 to $35 million.
Saints, at least for now, look like the frontrunners in the NFC South. But it’s early. Let’s see what the Panthers and Falcons look like in a few months.
—Ian Allan