There was some excitement here in New York with the Giants trading for Darren Waller the other day. It's understandable, with him having put up a pair of 1,100-yard seasons for the Raiders, performing like one of the top receivers at his position. But something of a leap of faith is required to imagine those numbers with the Giants.
Similarly, I wasn't thrilled when I heard about Hayden Hurst (who I have in a TE-premium dynasty league) signing with the Carolina Panthers. In both cases, capable receiving tight ends are moving to teams and/or coaching staffs without a great track record of throwing to the position.
Most will recall Dawson Knox catching 9 touchdowns in Buffalo the last year that Brian Daboll was running the offense (he's now Waller's head coach with the Giants). But even then Knox averaged just over 3 catches per game, and just 2 per game the previous year. And things were similar for the Giants last year, with tight end Daniel Bellinger catching 30 passes in 12 games -- 2.5 receptions per game.
Daboll's offenses the last three seasons -- two with Buffalo, one with New York -- have averaged 55 completions to tight ends. That's worked out to just 14 percent of all completed passes in those offenses, which would be the 2nd-lowest percentage in the NFL. The only team that's completed a lower percent of passes to tight ends the last three years is Hurst's new team, the Panthers. Waller's Raiders ranked 7th (Hurst's Bengals were a bottom-5 group).
Table shows passes completed to each team's tight ends over the last three seasons, compared to team completions. At the top of the table, one-third of Baltimore's pass completions the last three seasons have gone to tight ends (and not surprisingly, Kansas City comes in 2nd).
| PASSES TO TIGHT ENDS, 2020-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 20TE | 20Tm | 21TE | 21Tm | 22TE | 22Tm | Total |
| Baltimore | 73 | 257 | 118 | 396 | 127 | 300 | 33.4% |
| Kansas City | 118 | 420 | 113 | 448 | 149 | 435 | 29.2% |
| Cleveland | 90 | 315 | 95 | 320 | 94 | 335 | 28.8% |
| Denver | 97 | 317 | 109 | 354 | 72 | 345 | 27.4% |
| Tennessee | 94 | 316 | 82 | 359 | 85 | 285 | 27.2% |
| Philadelphia | 107 | 334 | 83 | 307 | 71 | 350 | 26.3% |
| Las Vegas | 128 | 369 | 88 | 429 | 64 | 359 | 24.2% |
| Chicago | 85 | 402 | 83 | 332 | 56 | 223 | 23.4% |
| Seattle | 75 | 388 | 74 | 324 | 110 | 399 | 23.3% |
| San Francisco | 96 | 371 | 80 | 343 | 67 | 338 | 23.1% |
| Miami | 91 | 370 | 122 | 404 | 47 | 368 | 22.8% |
| Atlanta | 66 | 408 | 108 | 377 | 62 | 257 | 22.6% |
| Dallas | 75 | 413 | 96 | 444 | 89 | 355 | 21.5% |
| Pittsburgh | 71 | 428 | 93 | 425 | 94 | 364 | 21.2% |
| Minnesota | 78 | 349 | 67 | 398 | 107 | 448 | 21.1% |
| LA Rams | 89 | 392 | 67 | 406 | 81 | 347 | 20.7% |
| Houston | 75 | 383 | 72 | 354 | 77 | 352 | 20.6% |
| Jacksonville | 68 | 387 | 74 | 361 | 92 | 394 | 20.5% |
| Indianapolis | 82 | 371 | 64 | 324 | 75 | 398 | 20.2% |
| Detroit | 83 | 374 | 80 | 396 | 66 | 383 | 19.9% |
| Green Bay | 77 | 372 | 72 | 402 | 76 | 364 | 19.8% |
| LA Chargers | 81 | 413 | 90 | 443 | 83 | 485 | 18.9% |
| Washington | 75 | 389 | 68 | 356 | 60 | 344 | 18.6% |
| New Orleans | 60 | 370 | 55 | 293 | 71 | 338 | 18.6% |
| Tampa Bay | 87 | 410 | 100 | 492 | 72 | 499 | 18.5% |
| NY Jets | 43 | 292 | 50 | 357 | 80 | 357 | 17.2% |
| Arizona | 48 | 387 | 76 | 415 | 82 | 433 | 16.7% |
| New England | 18 | 283 | 78 | 364 | 68 | 358 | 16.3% |
| Cincinnati | 53 | 372 | 63 | 384 | 73 | 418 | 16.1% |
| Daboll (Buf/NYG) | 42 | 410 | 58 | 415 | 64 | 346 | 14.0% |
| Carolina | 27 | 373 | 45 | 348 | 50 | 267 | 12.3% |
The Bills, of course, had Stefon Diggs and a talented group of wide receivers. And the Giants had only Bellinger last year, who doesn't have nearly the receiving ability of Waller. Trading for Waller suggests Daboll plans to feature the position more this year (and the Giants don't have a wide receiver room like the Bills had). I'm not dismissing the possibility of Waller being a busy guy in the offense. But it will be a change for Daboll.
As for Carolina, it's a brand-new coaching staff, with Frank Reich at head coach and Thomas Brown at offensive coordinator. So what the Panthers were doing in the Matt Rhule Era isn't really relevant. Reich's Colts teams utilized the tight ends as receivers, although they tended to favor a committee. Brown comes over from the Rams, where he was a tight ends coach (and where Tyler Higbee caught 72 balls a year ago). That's promising for Hurst, although the Rams could also use Tommy Tremble.
In general, I'm going to take a wait and see approach with Waller (starting with seeing what the team does at wide receiver). There's potential, but Daboll's history in this area isn't great. With Hurst, he'll have the advantage of being available a lot later in drafts. So a worthwhile flier, I think, given Carolina's new coaching staff and the team's current weakness at wide receiver.
--Andy Richardson