Jahan Dotson had some injury issues last year, but he also displayed some playmaking chops. Particularly at the end of the year, when he caught 21 passes for 344 yards and 3 TDs in his last five games. He can create after the catch, and he’s got the speed to get deep.
While we’re just getting into his career, he scored only 7 of his 35 catches last year. That’s 20 percent, and that’s an unusually high number. Influenced in part by the dynamic of working with a small sample set (only 35 catches), but so far, so good.
So worthwhile to look at other receivers who’ve done similar things. That is, when a player happens to score on a bunch of his catches, does that tend to carry over into him also scoring a bunch of touchdowns the next season?
Based on the numbers I’m seeing, not so much.
Looking at stats from the 32-team era (2002 to present), I pulled out all wide receivers who caught between 30 and 50 passes and scored on at least 19 percent of their catches. Granted, 19 is an obscure number, but it’s close to what Dotson was doing, and I wanted to get a decent number of guys to look at. I eliminated those with a lot more catches and touchdowns (rookie year OBJ, for example) because they seem to be a little different than what we’ve got with Dotson.
Of these 23 guys, only five the next season caught more than 6 TDs (all five, at least, caught 8-plus touchdowns, which is the kind of success you’re hoping for). Another three caught exactly 6 TDs, which seems to be kind of a neutral result.
But almost two thirds of the players (15 of 23) caught fewer than 6 TDs, and only one of those guys even caught 5. So more misses than hits overall.
In the chart below, I’ve got the big scorers in bold, with the three who caught 6 TDs tagged with black dots.
There are four receivers on the list who were (like Dotson) rookies: Anthony Miller, Gabe Davis, Chris Henry and Donte Stallworth.
| SCORING ON 19-PLUS PERCENT OF RECEPTIONS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | No | Yards | TD | Pct | Next Year |
| 2004 | Randy Moss, Min. | 49 | 767 | 13 | 26.5% | 60-1005-8 |
| 2007 | Reggie Williams, Jac. | 38 | 629 | 10 | 26.3% | 37-364-3 |
| 2006 | Chris Henry, Cin. | 36 | 605 | 9 | 25.0% | 21-343-2 |
| 2016 | Donte Moncrief, Ind. | 30 | 307 | 7 | 23.3% | 26-391-2 |
| 2018 | Mike Williams, LAC | 43 | 664 | 10 | 23.3% | 49-1001-2 |
| 2015 | Ted Ginn, Car. | 44 | 739 | 10 | 22.7% | 54-752-4 |
| 2014 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 49 | 767 | 11 | 22.4% | 33-663-4 |
| 2003 | Javon Walker, G.B. | 41 | 716 | 9 | 22.0% | 89-1382-12 |
| 2013 | Jerricho Cotchery, Pitt. | 46 | 602 | 10 | 21.7% | 48-580-1 |
| 2014 | Terrance Williams, Dall. | 37 | 621 | 8 | 21.6% | 52-840-3 |
| 2016 | • Kenny Stills, Mia. | 42 | 726 | 9 | 21.4% | 58-847-6 |
| 2010 | Kenny Britt, Ten. | 42 | 775 | 9 | 21.4% | 17-289-3 |
| 2018 | Anthony Miller, Chi. | 33 | 423 | 7 | 21.2% | 52-656-2 |
| 2017 | Sammy Watkins, LAR | 39 | 593 | 8 | 20.5% | 40-519-3 |
| 2019 | Adam Thielen, Min. | 30 | 418 | 6 | 20.0% | 74-925-14 |
| 2020 | • Gabe Davis, Buff. | 35 | 599 | 7 | 20.0% | 35-549-6 |
| 2021 | • Allen Lazard, G.B. | 40 | 513 | 8 | 20.0% | 60-788-6 |
| 2009 | Robert Meachem, N.O. | 45 | 722 | 9 | 20.0% | 44-638-5 |
| 2022 | JAHAN DOTSON, Was. | 35 | 523 | 7 | 20.0% | ?-?-? |
| 2012 | Santana Moss, Was. | 41 | 573 | 8 | 19.5% | 42-452-2 |
| 2005 | Chris Henry, Cin. | 31 | 422 | 6 | 19.4% | 36-605-9 |
| 2003 | Marcus Robinson, Balt. | 31 | 451 | 6 | 19.4% | 47-657-8 |
| 2002 | Donte Stallworth, N.O. | 42 | 594 | 8 | 19.0% | 25-485-3 |
| 2021 | DeAndre Hopkins, Ariz. | 42 | 572 | 8 | 19.0% | 64-717-3 |
—Ian Allan