Cam Newton is hoping to catch on with an NFL team. He didn't play at all last season and turns 34 next month. He's said he doesn't think there are 32 starters better than he is, but also that he'd be willing to accept a backup role. I think there's probably room for him in the league. Probably.
Certainly, his MVP days are long gone. When last he was a full-season starter for the Patriots in 2020, he was pretty anemic as a passer, perhaps not fully recovered from a previous shoulder surgery. That year he averaged just 177 passing yards, throwing 8 touchdowns in 15 games. New England went 7-9 that season.
As a runner, though, he was his usual highly productive self. In those same games he averaged 40 rushing yards and ran in 12 TDs. That enabled him to finish as the 17th-best fantasy quarterback that season, worthy of a roster spot in typical leagues.
I decided to look at Newton's work from when we last saw him, in 2021. That year he played four full games for his original team, Carolina. The Panthers lost all four games, and Newton was either reasonably successful or pretty unsuccessful, depending on how you want to look at it.
I took those four games and projected his numbers out over a full season, then compared him to the NFL's top 32 quarterbacks (fantasy scoring) in 2022. Since he averaged 42 rushing yards and ran for a touchdown in each of those games, that projected out to a 335-point season, making him a top-15 fantasy quarterback. So if he lands a job and makes it into the starting lineup, he should be rostered in typical fantasy leagues; maybe worthy of a best-ball gamble right now. If he winds up as a starter, which is far from certain.
Because starting quarterbacks in the NFL at some point need to pass the ball, and it's hard to have any confidence that Newton can still do that. He didn't do much of it in 2020 with the Patriots, and he didn't show much with Carolina a year later.
Newton in those four full Carolina games averaged just 154 passing yards, and threw 3 touchdowns. He completed only 54 percent of his passes, which was worse than all 32 of the top quarterbacks last season (none of those guys finished under 60 percent completions). And if you removed rushing production from the equation, scoring their fantasy points strictly on passing, Newton's projected numbers would have been better than only 6 of the NFL's 32 best quarterbacks a year ago. None of the six played a full season.
| NEWTON VERSUS 2022'S TOP-32 QUARTERBACKS | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Com | Att | Comp% | Pass | TD | Int | Run | TD | FF | FF (no run) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 435 | 648 | 67.1% | 5250 | 41 | 12 | 358 | 4 | 493.9 | 426.5 |
| Joe Burrow | 414 | 606 | 68.3% | 4475 | 35 | 12 | 257 | 5 | 425.45 | 363.8 |
| Josh Allen | 359 | 567 | 63.3% | 4283 | 35 | 14 | 762 | 7 | 476.35 | 354.2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 424 | 643 | 65.9% | 4547 | 29 | 14 | 97 | 2 | 371.05 | 343.4 |
| Jared Goff | 382 | 587 | 65.1% | 4438 | 29 | 7 | 73 | 0 | 350.7 | 337.9 |
| Justin Herbert | 477 | 699 | 68.2% | 4739 | 25 | 10 | 147 | 0 | 354.65 | 337.0 |
| Tom Brady | 490 | 733 | 66.8% | 4694 | 25 | 9 | -1 | 1 | 344.6 | 334.7 |
| Geno Smith | 399 | 572 | 69.8% | 4282 | 30 | 11 | 366 | 1 | 376.7 | 334.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 387 | 584 | 66.3% | 4113 | 25 | 8 | 291 | 5 | 370.75 | 305.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 350 | 542 | 64.6% | 3695 | 26 | 12 | 94 | 1 | 308.15 | 288.8 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 259 | 400 | 64.8% | 3548 | 25 | 8 | 70 | 0 | 284.4 | 277.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 306 | 460 | 66.5% | 3701 | 22 | 6 | 760 | 13 | 431.05 | 273.1 |
| Derek Carr | 305 | 502 | 60.8% | 3522 | 24 | 14 | 102 | 0 | 282.3 | 272.1 |
| Russell Wilson | 292 | 483 | 60.5% | 3524 | 16 | 11 | 277 | 3 | 287 | 240.2 |
| Dak Prescott | 261 | 394 | 66.2% | 2860 | 23 | 15 | 182 | 1 | 259.2 | 235.0 |
| Davis Mills | 292 | 479 | 61.0% | 3118 | 17 | 15 | 108 | 2 | 248.7 | 223.9 |
| Daniel Jones | 317 | 472 | 67.2% | 3205 | 15 | 5 | 708 | 7 | 337.05 | 220.3 |
| Andy Dalton | 252 | 378 | 66.7% | 2871 | 18 | 9 | 54 | 0 | 222.95 | 215.6 |
| Matt Ryan | 309 | 461 | 67.0% | 3057 | 14 | 13 | 70 | 1 | 221.85 | 208.9 |
| Mac Jones | 288 | 442 | 65.2% | 2997 | 14 | 11 | 102 | 1 | 224.05 | 205.9 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 207 | 308 | 67.2% | 2437 | 16 | 4 | 33 | 2 | 201.15 | 185.9 |
| Justin Fields | 192 | 318 | 60.4% | 2242 | 17 | 11 | 1143 | 8 | 344.4 | 180.1 |
| Lamar Jackson | 203 | 326 | 62.3% | 2242 | 17 | 7 | 764 | 3 | 276.5 | 180.1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 212 | 325 | 65.2% | 2536 | 13 | 6 | 98 | 2 | 202.6 | 178.8 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 236 | 369 | 64.0% | 2608 | 12 | 6 | 243 | 2 | 214.7 | 178.4 |
| Kyler Murray | 259 | 390 | 66.4% | 2368 | 14 | 7 | 418 | 3 | 242.2 | 174.4 |
| Newton (proj) | 236 | 436 | 54.1% | 2460 | 12 | 16 | 676 | 16 | 334.6 | 171.0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 184 | 300 | 61.3% | 2219 | 15 | 9 | 438 | 4 | 242.75 | 171.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 245 | 389 | 63.0% | 2404 | 7 | 9 | 237 | 3 | 193.9 | 148.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 201 | 335 | 60.0% | 2163 | 10 | 8 | 89 | 1 | 163.05 | 148.2 |
| Matthew Stafford | 206 | 303 | 68.0% | 2087 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 151.25 | 144.4 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 161 | 259 | 62.2% | 1859 | 12 | 6 | 96 | 1 | 156.55 | 141.0 |
| Carson Wentz | 172 | 276 | 62.3% | 1755 | 11 | 9 | 86 | 1 | 150.35 | 131.8 |
Rushing production counts in fantasy of course, so if Newton gets a job, he needs to be on fantasy coaches' radar. I can't say for certain if there are 32 starting quarterbacks better than him. There probably aren't 32 backups better than him.
But he's questionable enough as a passer that I'm not sure he'll get a job, certainly not before training camp. A goal-line running quarterback, maybe. A quarterback who can win games by passing it -- that would take a leap of faith at this point.
--Andy Richardson