It's considered a deep draft class for running backs, but reasonable people can differ over exactly what that means. Are there a lot of really talented backs, or just an unusually large number of decent backs who could become serviceable NFL starters? From a fantasy perspective, either would be nice.
Texas' Bijan Robinson might be a first-round pick; he looks great. Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs, who I've written about here once or twice, also has star potential. UCLA's Zach Charbonnet and TCU's Kendre Miller are the among others who should be early considerations.
I was wondering how often previous classes that were considered deep turned out that way. If they either had a lot of stars, or a lot of really solid NFL backs.
Looking back over the past 20 years, I see three classes that seemed to fit the profile. On average, you'll see about 6-8 running backs selected in the first three rounds of the draft. (Last year 6, 2021 just 4, 2019 there were 7, 2018 there were 8.) But three draft classes this century had double-digit running backs selected in the first three rounds: 2020, 2008 and 2001. How did those backs turn out?
The 2001 class, highlighted by LaDainian Tomlinson, worked out pretty well. Eight of the 10 running backs selected in the first three rounds had at least one top-20 season (PPR). Four (Tomlinson, Deuce McCallister, Travis Henry and Reuben Droughns) had multiple such years.
2008 would be considered the gold standard. There were 11 running backs selected in the first three rounds. Nine of them had at least one top-20 fantasy season (seven had more than one), six had a top-10 season, and four -- Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Matt Forte and Ray Rice -- had at least one season where they ranked No. 1 or 2 overall. Probably the best running back class ever.
Early returns on the 2020 class, which featured 11 running backs selected in the first three rounds, aren't great. (Since there have only been three seasons, there's still time for a couple of those guys to emerge, but then again, running back careers are short.) Only three of them have a top-20 season thus far, and two of those guys (Antonio Gibson, D'Andre Swift) weren't even starters most of last season, and won't be this year. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been a disappointment. J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers have had their moments but battled injuries -- maybe one of those guys will step up with a big season in 2023. AJ Dillon is also a possibility, though he seems forever stuck behind Aaron Jones.
Anyway, table below shows the top seasons from those 32 running backs. (A couple near the bottom were actually fullbacks, but are included for completeness.) Let's hope 2023 winds up being a little closer to 2008, or at least 2001, than 2020.
| BEST SEASONS, RD 1-3 RUNNING BACKS (2000, 2008, 2020) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draft | Best | Player | Att | Run | No | Rec | TD | Rk |
| 2008 | 2009 | Chris Johnson, Ten. | 358 | 2006 | 50 | 503 | 16 | 1 |
| 2008 | 2013 | Jamaal Charles, K.C. | 259 | 1287 | 70 | 693 | 19 | 1 |
| 2020 | 2021 | Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 332 | 1811 | 40 | 360 | 20 | 1 |
| 2001 | 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. | 348 | 1815 | 56 | 508 | 31 | 1 |
| 2008 | 2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. | 291 | 1364 | 76 | 704 | 15 | 1 |
| 2008 | 2013 | Matt Forte, Chi. | 289 | 1339 | 74 | 594 | 12 | 2 |
| 2001 | 2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. | 351 | 1641 | 69 | 516 | 8 | 5 |
| 2001 | 2005 | LaMont Jordan, Oak. | 272 | 1025 | 70 | 563 | 11 | 6 |
| 2008 | 2008 | Steve Slaton, Hou. | 268 | 1282 | 50 | 377 | 10 | 7 |
| 2020 | 2021 | Antonio Gibson, Was. | 258 | 1037 | 42 | 294 | 10 | 8 |
| 2008 | 2010 | Darren McFadden, Oak. | 223 | 1157 | 47 | 507 | 10 | 8 |
| 2001 | 2002 | Travis Henry, Buff. | 325 | 1438 | 43 | 309 | 14 | 9 |
| 2008 | 2010 | Rashard Mendenhall, Pitt. | 324 | 1273 | 23 | 167 | 13 | 11 |
| 2001 | 2005 | Reuben Droughns, Cle. | 309 | 1232 | 39 | 369 | 2 | 14 |
| 2020 | 2021 | D'Andre Swift, Det. | 151 | 617 | 62 | 452 | 7 | 15 |
| 2008 | 2009 | Jonathan Stewart, Car. | 221 | 1133 | 18 | 139 | 11 | 15 |
| 2001 | 2001 | Anthony Thomas, Chi. | 278 | 1183 | 22 | 178 | 7 | 17 |
| 2008 | 2008 | Kevin Smith, Det. | 238 | 976 | 39 | 286 | 8 | 17 |
| 2001 | 2002 | Michael Bennett, Min. | 255 | 1296 | 37 | 351 | 6 | 18 |
| 2001 | 2003 | Kevan Barlow, S.F. | 201 | 1024 | 35 | 307 | 7 | 19 |
| 2020 | 2020 | Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C. | 181 | 803 | 36 | 297 | 5 | 22 |
| 2020 | 2021 | AJ Dillon, G.B. | 187 | 803 | 34 | 313 | 7 | 23 |
| 2008 | 2010 | Felix Jones, Dall. | 185 | 800 | 48 | 450 | 2 | 23 |
| 2020 | 2020 | J.K. Dobbins, Balt. | 134 | 805 | 18 | 120 | 9 | 24 |
| 2020 | 2022 | Cam Akers, LAR | 188 | 786 | 13 | 117 | 7 | 34 |
| 2001 | 2001 | Travis Minor, Mia. | 59 | 281 | 29 | 263 | 4 | 42 |
| 2001 | 2003 | James Jackson, Cle. | 102 | 382 | 14 | 114 | 3 | 47 |
| 2020 | 2020 | Zack Moss, Buff. | 112 | 481 | 14 | 95 | 5 | 49 |
| 2008 | 2010 | Jacob Hester, S.D. | 26 | 60 | 22 | 145 | 1 | 74 |
| 2001 | 2005 | Heath Evans, 2TM | 52 | 192 | 14 | 105 | 0 | 78 |
| 2020 | 2021 | KeShawn Vaughn, T.B. | 36 | 180 | 4 | 26 | 2 | 90 |
| 2020 | 2022 | Darrynton Evans, Chi. | 14 | 64 | 1 | 33 | 0 | 118 |
--Andy Richardson