Washington has a lengthy run of struggling to find competent quarterback play, and 2023 might be no different. It will be veteran Jacoby Brissett or second-year passer Sam Howell, neither of whom is a sure thing for excellence. Brissett is the capable veteran, Howell the one with upside.
We've talked some about Brissett, and it's true he's had some modest success at times. He was decent for the Colts back in 2019, when Andrew Luck retired on the eve of the season.
But my primary memories of his fill-in work for Cleveland last year are him throwing interceptions at the end of several close losses the first half of the season. He went 4-7 in his 11 starts, before Deshaun Watson mopped up the rest of the year. He'll give Washington a functional level of quarterback play, but no way is the team doing anything noteworthy in the NFC East with him at quarterback.
They won't with Howell, either, but at least he could get things moving in the right direction, as a mobile young passer with theoretical upside. The question is whether that will happen.
Howell was just a fifth-round pick, and there aren't a lot of recent success stories among quarterbacks drafted in that round. None, actually. The best (sneaking into the top-30 in a league with 32 starting quarterbacks!) fifth-round quarterbacks drafted this century have been John Skelton, A.J. Feeley and Dan Orlovsky. Ugh.
So I pulled all the quarterbacks drafted outside of the top three rounds -- fourth through seventh rounders. Not a lot difference in draft terms from quarterbacks selected in the fourth round and the fifth; they're all shots in the dark. Looking at those guys is a little more promising.
I removed sixth-rounder Tom Brady from the discussion. No one needs to see his 19 top-20 seasons; we can all agree he had a pretty solid career. He's the outlier.
Otherwise this century, there have been 11 quarterbacks selected from the fourth round on who have had at least one top-20 season (fantasy). Arguably the best of those guys was the passer Washington should have never let get away: Kirk Cousins. He had three top-10 seasons for Washington, and has gone on to have three more for Minnesota. You can lay a lot of the team's struggles the last few years with that lousy decision (and they've gone on to spend plenty of picks and money trying to replace him).
Dak Prescott is the other star selected from the fourth round on (again, excluding Brady). If we're talking best later-round draft picks at quarterback this century, you can make a case for Prescott as No. 2 behind Brady.
Otherwise, you've got a bunch of guys who had a good season or two, or had steady, relatively modest success throughout their career. Marc Bulger, David Garrard, Matt Cassel, and another veteran who Washington tried since saying goodbye to Cousins: Ryan Fitzpatrick. But Fitzpatrick got hurt in his first start with the team, and that was the end of his career.
Washington says it believes in Howell. He started one game last season, a Week 18 win over Dallas where he went 11 of 19 for 169 yards and a touchdown, with an interception and 3 sacks. He also ran for 35 yards and a score, a positive for his fantasy prospects. (In his final season at North Carolina he ran for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns, so it's part of his game.) The track record for the area he was drafted in isn't great, but it's not impossible.
Table shows every top-20 season by a non-Brady quarterback drafted outside the first three rounds this century.
| TOP-20 QUARTERBACKS, 2000-PRESENT (DRAFT ROUNDS 4-7) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | Year | Player | Pass | TD | Run | TD | PPR | Rk |
| 4 | 2019 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4902 | 30 | 277 | 3 | 412.8 | 3 |
| 4 | 2017 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4093 | 27 | 179 | 4 | 354.6 | 4 |
| 6 | 2007 | Derek Anderson, Cle. | 3787 | 29 | 70 | 3 | 332.4 | 5 |
| 4 | 2016 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4917 | 25 | 96 | 4 | 379.5 | 5 |
| 6 | 2006 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 4301 | 24 | 44 | 0 | 317.5 | 5 |
| 6 | 2003 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 3845 | 22 | 75 | 4 | 313.8 | 5 |
| 4 | 2021 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 4449 | 37 | 146 | 1 | 397.1 | 6 |
| 4 | 2022 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4547 | 29 | 97 | 2 | 371.1 | 6 |
| 4 | 2018 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4298 | 30 | 123 | 1 | 360.1 | 8 |
| 7 | 2008 | Matt Cassel, N.E. | 3693 | 21 | 270 | 2 | 311.7 | 8 |
| 4 | 2008 | David Garrard, Jac. | 3620 | 15 | 322 | 2 | 285.6 | 9 |
| 6 | 2004 | Marc Bulger, St.L. | 3964 | 21 | 89 | 3 | 311.1 | 9 |
| 4 | 2017 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3324 | 22 | 357 | 6 | 325.9 | 10 |
| 4 | 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3667 | 23 | 282 | 6 | 339.6 | 10 |
| 4 | 2021 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4221 | 33 | 115 | 1 | 360.6 | 10 |
| 4 | 2015 | Kirk Cousins, Was. | 4166 | 29 | 48 | 5 | 363.1 | 10 |
| 4 | 2018 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 3885 | 22 | 305 | 6 | 352.8 | 11 |
| 4 | 2020 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 4265 | 35 | 156 | 1 | 384.9 | 11 |
| 7 | 2011 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 3832 | 24 | 215 | 0 | 311.1 | 11 |
| 7 | 2015 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ | 3905 | 31 | 270 | 2 | 358.3 | 12 |
| 7 | 2008 | Tyler Thigpen, K.C. | 2608 | 18 | 386 | 3 | 271.7 | 12 |
| 4 | 2010 | David Garrard, Jac. | 2734 | 23 | 279 | 5 | 286.6 | 14 |
| 4 | 2009 | David Garrard, Jac. | 3597 | 15 | 323 | 3 | 292.2 | 14 |
| 7 | 2010 | Matt Cassel, K.C. | 3116 | 27 | 125 | 0 | 276.3 | 15 |
| 4 | 2007 | David Garrard, Jac. | 2509 | 18 | 185 | 1 | 224.0 | 16 |
| 4 | 2010 | Kyle Orton, Den. | 3653 | 20 | 98 | 0 | 272.5 | 16 |
| 4 | 2009 | Kyle Orton, Den. | 3802 | 21 | 71 | 0 | 281.2 | 16 |
| 7 | 2010 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 3000 | 23 | 269 | 0 | 268.9 | 17 |
| 4 | 2022 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 2860 | 23 | 182 | 1 | 259.2 | 18 |
| 4 | 2008 | Kyle Orton, Chi. | 2972 | 18 | 49 | 3 | 245.5 | 18 |
| 7 | 2019 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mia. | 3529 | 20 | 243 | 4 | 306.8 | 18 |
| 7 | 2012 | Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buff. | 3400 | 24 | 197 | 1 | 291.7 | 18 |
| 6 | 2015 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 3035 | 20 | 568 | 4 | 316.0 | 18 |
| 4 | 2001 | Chris Weinke, Car. | 2931 | 11 | 128 | 6 | 239.4 | 19 |
| 4 | 2019 | Kirk Cousins, Min. | 3603 | 26 | 63 | 1 | 298.5 | 19 |
| 6 | 2016 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 3023 | 17 | 580 | 6 | 317.2 | 19 |
| 6 | 2017 | Tyrod Taylor, Buff. | 2799 | 14 | 427 | 4 | 262.7 | 20 |
--Andy Richardson