I will be interested to see what the Chargers do at running back during the draft. Do they trade Austin Ekeler? And would they consider selecting Bijan Robinson?
Robinson is an unusually good pass catcher. He’s a rare rookie who could step in and replace Ekeler. (Upset with his contract, Ekeler in March asked for a trade.)
But I don’t think any team will be interested in both trading for Ekeler and also giving him a new contract. It’s far more likely that he stays with the Chargers (which he admits is his preference), with the team perhaps supplementing him with another back in the later rounds. With Ekeler being undersized and turning 28 next month, he needs to be paired with another back.
They’ve gone this route before, of course, without much success. They selected Joshua Kelley in the fourth round of the 2020 draft, but he hasn’t gotten many chances; he finally moved up into the backup role last year, but without playing much (Ekeler was available for all 17 games). They selected Larry Rountree in the sixth round in 2021, but he spent most of last year on the practice squad.
The Chargers last year chose Isaiah Spiller in the fourth round, and GM Tom Telesco said at his pre-draft media briefing that they still have high hopes for him.
“We like Isaiah,” Telesco said. “We liked him a lot when we drafted him. He’s a 225-pound running back who is 5-foot-11 and has great vision, can make people miss. He was stuck behind some players last year, and he will get a chance to come in, compete and earn a job this year. We would have liked to have seen him get a little bit more run last year, but there were some other players in front of him.
“He’s still the same talent that we saw last year. Like a lot of these players, they may earn roles more towards the middle or back end of their rookie contract, maybe not right at the beginning – which is OK, which is normal. Then, take it from there.”
This is possible, in theory. Maybe Spiller comes in with more confidence and a better command of the offense. But he was pretty underwhelming in his first season. He was outperformed by Kelley in the preseason – never really in the mix for backup job. And after Miami released Sony Michel at the end of the preseason, they brought him in, dropping Spiller down to No. 4 on the depth chart.
When Kelley missed a month during the middle of the season, they gave Spiller some work, but he didn’t do much with his limited opportunities. He carried 18 times for only 41 yards, which works out to 2.3 yards per attempt. So I think it’s fair to say that Spiller isn’t as valuable now as he was a year ago – he was a fourth-round pick a year ago, but he’s something less than that now.
I ran some numbers on this, seeing if there are other backs who have pulled off what Spiller is attempting to do – that is, turn into a viable player after being pretty much worthless as rookies. It does happen on occasion, but not often.
Below, see the 43 running backs in the 32-team era who’ve carried the ball at least 10 times in their rookie season and averaged under 3 yards per attempt. Seven of these running backs at some point in their career authored a top-20 season (using PPR scoring) – not necessarily in the second year or even in their third, but at some point in their career. And that’s pretty much it. Only one other back ever ranked higher than 49th at the position (Mike Goodson, who was the 39th-best back one season).
The list below includes some fullbacks and otherwise forgettable prospects – guys who were never in the mix. We can focus the list to make it better match Spiller – drafted with the hope of him developing into a contributing runner. In the list below, there are 16 players who were drafted in the third or fourth round. Four of those guys at some point in their career had a top-20 season.
The numbers suggest there’s about a 25 percent chance Spiller will turn things around, becoming a viable contributor. But I haven’t seen anything on the field that suggests he’s going to be one of those exceptions. (Of course, with the guys below, none of the guys below showed much of anything as rookies either.)
My hunch is that the Chargers haven’t seen enough out of Spiller either, and that they’ll be adding another notable running back in the draft.
In the chart below, you’re seeing rushing stats only (no pass-catching numbers). The final column shows the best ranking of each player’s career, using PPR scoring. Players who at some point in their career put together a top-20 season are tagged with black dots.
The most Spiller-like success stories on the list, I think, are Ronald Jones and Mike Davis. Both were similarly awful as rookies, but both kept working at it and later had some NFL success.
| STRUGGLING ROOKIE RUNNING BACKS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | Best Rk |
| 2002 | Jonathan Wells, Hou. | 197 | 529 | 2.7 | 3 | 49 |
| 2003 | Jeremi Johnson, Cin. | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 | 82 |
| 2003 | Artose Pinner, Det. | 39 | 99 | 2.5 | 0 | 52 |
| 2004 | Cedric Cobbs, N.E. | 22 | 50 | 2.3 | 0 | 153 |
| 2004 | Greg Jones, Jac. | 62 | 162 | 2.6 | 3 | 50 |
| 2005 | Ciatrick Fason, Min. | 32 | 62 | 1.9 | 4 | 89 |
| 2005 | Noah Herron, 2TM | 48 | 123 | 2.6 | 2 | 52 |
| 2005 | • Brandon Jacobs, NYG | 38 | 99 | 2.6 | 7 | 18 |
| 2007 | Tony Hunt, Phil. | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 1 | 106 |
| 2007 | Garrett Wolfe, Chi. | 31 | 85 | 2.7 | 0 | 92 |
| 2008 | • Mike Tolbert, S.D. | 13 | 37 | 2.9 | 0 | 16 |
| 2008 | • Tim Hightower, Ariz. | 143 | 399 | 2.8 | 10 | 14 |
| 2009 | Glen Coffee, S.F. | 83 | 226 | 2.7 | 1 | 78 |
| 2009 | Mike Goodson, Car. | 22 | 49 | 2.2 | 0 | 38 |
| 2011 | Jamie Harper, Ten. | 17 | 44 | 2.6 | 1 | 109 |
| 2011 | • Bilal Powell, NYJ | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 | 17 |
| 2013 | Michael Cox, NYG | 22 | 43 | 2.0 | 0 | 129 |
| 2013 | Fozzy Whittaker, 2TM | 28 | 79 | 2.8 | 0 | 62 |
| 2014 | Darrin Reaves, Car. | 31 | 78 | 2.5 | 0 | 117 |
| 2014 | Marion Grice, Ariz. | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 1 | 109 |
| 2014 | • Charles Sims, T.B. | 66 | 185 | 2.8 | 1 | 16 |
| 2015 | Josh Robinson, Ind. | 17 | 39 | 2.3 | 0 | 125 |
| 2015 | David Cobb, Ten. | 52 | 146 | 2.8 | 1 | 112 |
| 2015 | • Mike Davis, S.F. | 35 | 58 | 1.7 | 0 | 12 |
| 2016 | Daniel Lasco, N.O. | 11 | 32 | 2.9 | 0 | 136 |
| 2016 | Josh Ferguson, Ind. | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 | 86 |
| 2016 | Dwayne Washington, Det. | 90 | 265 | 2.9 | 1 | 74 |
| 2018 | John Kelly, LAR | 27 | 74 | 2.7 | 0 | 110 |
| 2018 | Mark Walton, Cin. | 14 | 34 | 2.4 | 0 | 80 |
| 2018 | • Ronald Jones, T.B. | 23 | 44 | 1.9 | 1 | 19 |
| 2019 | Dalyn Dawkins, Ten. | 11 | 26 | 2.4 | 0 | 136 |
| 2019 | Tra Carson, 2TM | 18 | 48 | 2.7 | 0 | 116 |
| 2019 | Wes Hills, Det. | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 2 | 104 |
| 2019 | Qadree Ollison, Atl. | 22 | 50 | 2.3 | 4 | 93 |
| 2019 | Alec Ingold, Oak. | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 | 85 |
| 2019 | Patrick Laird, Mia. | 62 | 168 | 2.7 | 1 | 64 |
| 2021 | Kylin Hill, G.B. | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 | 146 |
| 2021 | Deon Jackson, Ind. | 13 | 31 | 2.4 | 1 | 55 |
| 2022 | Trestan Ebner, Chi. | 24 | 54 | 2.3 | 0 | 128 |
| 2022 | Isaiah Spiller, LAC | 18 | 41 | 2.3 | 0 | 126 |
| 2022 | Tyrion Davis-Price, S.F. | 34 | 99 | 2.9 | 0 | 123 |
| 2022 | Kevin Harris, N.E. | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 | 116 |
| 2022 | Keaontay Ingram, Ariz. | 27 | 60 | 2.2 | 1 | 108 |
—Ian Allan