With the Packers’ draft, I wonder if I’m looking at a coincidence or a deliberate strategy. They drafted five offensive weapons – guys who’ll handle the ball – and all five come off lesser, injury-affected seasons.
I like the general premise. If a player is sidelined for a bunch of games with an injury, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to be injury prone going forward (particularly if your doctors have signed off on him). So if the player looks like he might have gone a round or two earlier if not for the injury, doesn’t that make him a good prospect to outperform where he’s selected?
In the first half of the second round, the Packers selected tight end Luke Musgrave. He played in only two games last year at Oregon State, catching 11 passes, before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury. But Musgrave had 4 catches of 25-plus yards in those games, looking like he was going to be something special, and he tested great. I think he’s in the mix to maybe be the best of the first-year tight ends (Dalton Kincaid is the only rookie tight end I know I’ll be ranking higher).
Musgrave caught twice as many passes as a junior (only 22 catches that year, but Oregon State has a run-oriented offense).
| MUSGRAVE, FINAL TWO YEARS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2021 | 13 | 22 | 304 | 13.8 | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 11 | 169 | 15.4 | 1 |
Later in the second round, the Packers selected Jayden Reed, and that one got my attention. The last five wide receivers the Packers have selected in the second round have all hit it big. Greg Jennings, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Christian Watson. If Reed is anywhere near as good as any of those guys, sign me up.
Reed (pictured) was great as a junior at Michigan State, catching 59 passes for 1,026 yards and 10 touchdowns, with another 2 TDs on punt returns and a touchdown run. Had he played like that again as a senior, he would have been picked before some of those receivers in the first round. But he instead tailed off, with a variety of injuries and the offense around him not being as good. He averaged 6 fewer yards per catch and caught half as many touchdowns.
Note, by the way, that none of the five second-round receivers who hit for Green Bay in the earlier drafts were guys who declined in their final college seasons (Adams caught 24 touchdowns his final year at Fresno State, while Nelson caught 122 passes at Kansas State).
| REED, FINAL TWO SEASONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2021 | 13 | 59 | 1,026 | 17.4 | 10 |
| 2022 | 11 | 55 | 636 | 11.6 | 5 |
Halfway through the third round, the Packers added another tight end, Tucker Kraft from South Dakota State. He was also a lot more productive as a junior, with 38 more catches and twice as many touchdowns. He suffered an ankle injury in his final season.
If not for the Packers have already picked Musgrave, I would have some interest in Kraft. And it can’t be ruled out that Kraft might simply win the job. That happens on occasion. Four times in the last 15 years, the Ravens have drafted multiple tight ends, with the second guy in each case ending up being the more valuable of the two. (Mark Andrews over Hayden Hurst, Isaiah Likely over Charlie Kolar, Dennis Pitta over Ed Dickson, and Nick Boyle over Maxx Williams).
| KRAFT, FINAL TWO SEASONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2021 | 15 | 65 | 780 | 12.0 | 7 |
| 2022 | 9 | 27 | 348 | 12.9 | 3 |
The Packers went for another wide receiver in the fifth round, Dontayvion Wicks out of Virginia, and he also declined in his final season. In his case, he missed two games and also simply wasn’t as effective.
Wicks in 2021 caught 57 passes for 1,203 yards and 9 TDs, averaging 21.1 yards per catch. Had he played like that again last year, I imagine he would have gone two rounds earlier. At least.
| WICKS, FINAL TWO SEASONS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | No | Yards | Avg | TD |
| 2021 | 12 | 57 | 1,203 | 21.1 | 9 |
| 2022 | 8 | 30 | 430 | 14.3 | 2 |
Seventh round, the Packers went for a running back: Lew Nichols from Central Michigan. Remarkably, he’s the same kind of prospect. He ran for 1,848 yards and 16 touchdowns as a junior. In his final year, he battled a toe injury and ran for exactly a third as many yards, averaging almost 2 fewer yards per carry.
| NICHOLS, FINAL TWO SEASONS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Year | G | Rushing | Receiving |
| 2021 | 13 | 341-1848-5.4-16 | 40-338-8.5-2 |
| 2022 | 9 | 176-616-3.5-6 | 21-128-6.1-0 |
—Ian Allan