I have some interest in Houston's third-round wide receiver Nathaniel "Tank" Dell. He's tiny, but he was ultra-productive in college, and he's going to a team with very little at the position.
The Texans traded away Brandin Cooks, not too too long after trading away DeAndre Hopkins. They signed Robert Woods to a contract that doesn't make a lot of sense - 2 years, $15.25 million, with $10 million of it guaranteed. Woods tore his ACL in 2021 and was a non-factor with the Titans last year, averaging 3 catches and 31 yards per game. Definitely want to guarantee that kind of money to a 31-year-old receiver.
Houston has two other early-round wideouts on the roster, Nico Collins and John Metchie. Third-rounder Collins in two seasons averages 3 catches for 39 yards, with 3 total touchdowns. He hasn't been working with much at quarterback so a third-year breakout is possible, but not a lot to go on with thinking he'll emerge. Metchie, last year’s second-rounder, missed his rookie season due to a leukemia diagnosis. He’s participating in the offseason program and could be a factor; he caught 96 passes and 8 TDs for Alabama two years ago. But he doesn’t have a huge NFL edge on Dell.
Which brings us to Dell, who could reasonably be one of the top 3 wideouts here very quickly. Dell was one of the smaller-sized wideouts who dominated this year's draft, weighing in at 5-8 and 165 pounds at the combine. But he's really fast (looks faster than the 4.49 he ran), and was remarkably productive for the University of Houston.
In 2021, he caught 90 passes for 1,329 yards and 12 touchdowns. He came back a year later and was even better, hauling in 109 balls for 1,378 yards and 17 scores. He added another touchdown on a punt return. He led all of college football in both receiving yards and touchdowns, finishing just 1 catch short of the receiving triple crown.
Looking at other receivers who led the NCAA in receiving this century, there have been some guys who went on to become NFL successes -- some modest, some huge.
Table shows the college receiving leaders since 2000, along with their best NFL seasons to this point. About a third (7) have gone on to have at least one top 30 season; five have had a top-10 campaign. Four others at least made it into the top 50 at the position; briefly factors in fantasy leagues. Unlikely Dell will be the next Larry Fitzgerald, but maybe Austin Collie or even DeVonta Smith -- you never know.
In the table, wide receivers with top-30 seasons are in bold.
| COLLEGE RECEIVING LEADERS, 2000-PRESENT | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | School | Yds | Best | PPR |
| 2022 | Nathaniel Dell | Houston | 1398 | ??? | ??? |
| 2021 | Jerreth Sterns | Western Kentucky | 1902 | - | - |
| 2020 | DeVonta Smith | Alabama | 1856 | 95-1196-7 | 9 |
| 2019 | Ja'Marr Chase | Louisiana State | 1780 | 81-1455-13 | 5 |
| 2018 | Andy Isabella | Massachusetts | 1698 | 21-224-2 | 114 |
| 2017 | James Washington | Oklahoma State | 1549 | 44-735-3 | 52 |
| 2016 | Trent Taylor | Louisiana Tech | 1803 | 43-430-2 | 68 |
| 2015 | Keyarris Garrett | Tulsa | 1588 | - | - |
| 2014 | Rashard Higgins | Colorado State | 1750 | 39-572-4 | 61 |
| 2013 | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State | 1730 | 78-1173-8 | 10 |
| 2012 | Terrance Williams | Baylor | 1832 | 52-840-3 | 44 |
| 2011 | Jordan White | Western Michigan | 1911 | 1-13-0 | 187 |
| 2010 | Greg Salas | Hawaii | 1889 | 27-264-0 | 105 |
| 2009 | Danario Alexander | Missouri | 1781 | 37-658-7 | 49 |
| 2008 | Austin Collie | Brigham Young | 1538 | 60-676-7 | 29 |
| 2007 | Michael Crabtree | Texas Tech | 1962 | 89-1003-8 | 12 |
| 2006 | Chris Williams | New Mexico State | 1425 | - | - |
| 2005 | Mike Hass | Oregon State | 1532 | 0-0-0 | 999 |
| 2004 | Roddy White | Alabama-Birmingham | 1452 | 115-1389-10 | 1 |
| 2003 | Larry Fitzgerald | Pittsburgh | 1672 | 96-1431-12 | 2 |
| 2002 | J.R. Tolver | San Diego State | 1785 | 0-0-0 | 999 |
| 2001 | Josh Reed | Louisiana State | 1740 | 58-588-2 | 44 |
| 2000 | Snoop Minnis | Florida State | 1340 | 33-511-1 | 67 |
Dell went in the third round of my recent rookie draft, which is about right. Far from a sure thing, but there's some potential. A guy worth watching in July and August, seeing if he can emerge in an offense desperate for playmakers at receiver.
--Andy Richardson