When a running back handles a big workload, does that make him a player we should be trying to pick (because he’s proven he can handle the wear and tear of the position)? Or is it best to stay away from such players (figuring that they are overdue to break down)?
The two prime candidates this year are Josh Jacobs (pictured) and Derrick Henry. Jacobs handled the ball 393 times last year, winning his first rushing title. Henry actually averaged more touches per game but sat out one week, finishing at 382 touches.
I pulled up some numbers on this, seeing if we can couldn’t anything from the big data figures. There have been 80 other running backs in the 32-team era who have handled the ball at least 350 times. (That’s after setting aside guys who didn’t play at all in the next season – like unsigned LeVeon Bell or retired Tiki Barber). If we look at how those players performed in their next season, 25 of the 80 played in 12 or fewer games. About a third, in a rough sense, missed a decent amount of action. If we consider starting 13 of 16 games to be a healthy or relatively healthy season, then about two thirds of these backs checked out OK the next year.
I’m listing all of those backs below. The ones who played in 12 or fewer games are tagged with black dots. There are plenty of them, underscoring that if you choose to regularly use your first-round picks on high-use running backs, you will be hitting some of those black dots, putting your fantasy team in an early hole that will need to be overcome in the later rounds.
The players are ranked in descending order by their touches the previous season (the three guys with about 450 touches are at the top, and the backs down with about 350 touches are at the bottom).
| RUNNING BACKS WITH 350 TOUCHES (the next season) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player (prev. touches) | Age | G | Touch | Run | Rec | Tot | TD |
| 2007 | • Larry Johnson, K.C. (457) | 28 | 8 | 188 | 559 | 186 | 745 | 4 |
| 2003 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (451) | 24 | 16 | 413 | 1,645 | 725 | 2,370 | 17 |
| 2015 | DeMarco Murray, Phil. (449) | 27 | 15 | 237 | 702 | 322 | 1,024 | 7 |
| 2007 | • Steven Jackson, St.L. (436) | 24 | 12 | 275 | 1,002 | 271 | 1,273 | 6 |
| 2003 | Ricky Williams, Mia. (430) | 26 | 16 | 442 | 1,372 | 351 | 1,723 | 10 |
| 2004 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. (420) | 26 | 14 | 303 | 1,074 | 228 | 1,302 | 9 |
| 2004 | • Jamal Lewis, Balt. (413) | 25 | 12 | 245 | 1,006 | 116 | 1,122 | 7 |
| 2004 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (413) | 25 | 15 | 392 | 1,335 | 441 | 1,776 | 18 |
| 2005 | • Curtis Martin, NYJ (412) | 32 | 12 | 244 | 735 | 118 | 853 | 5 |
| 2006 | Tiki Barber, NYG (411) | 31 | 16 | 385 | 1,662 | 465 | 2,127 | 5 |
| 2010 | Chris Johnson, Ten. (408) | 25 | 16 | 360 | 1,364 | 245 | 1,609 | 12 |
| 2004 | Ahman Green, G.B. (405) | 27 | 15 | 299 | 1,163 | 275 | 1,438 | 8 |
| 2007 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (404) | 28 | 16 | 375 | 1,474 | 475 | 1,949 | 18 |
| 2006 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. (404) | 28 | 16 | 375 | 1,159 | 217 | 1,376 | 6 |
| 2020 | • Christian McCaffrey, Car. (403) | 24 | 3 | 76 | 225 | 149 | 374 | 6 |
| 2021 | • Derrick Henry, Ten. (397) | 27 | 8 | 237 | 937 | 154 | 1,091 | 10 |
| 2004 | • Priest Holmes, K.C. (394) | 31 | 8 | 215 | 892 | 187 | 1,079 | 15 |
| 2011 | Arian Foster, Hou. (393) | 25 | 13 | 331 | 1,224 | 617 | 1,841 | 12 |
| 2004 | Fred Taylor, Jac. (393) | 28 | 14 | 296 | 1,224 | 345 | 1,569 | 3 |
| 2023 | Josh Jacobs, L.V. (393) | 25 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2005 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (392) | 26 | 16 | 390 | 1,462 | 370 | 1,832 | 20 |
| 2013 | • Arian Foster, Hou. (391) | 27 | 8 | 143 | 542 | 183 | 725 | 2 |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (390) | 27 | 16 | 404 | 1,815 | 508 | 2,323 | 31 |
| 2013 | Adrian Peterson, Min. (388) | 28 | 14 | 308 | 1,266 | 171 | 1,437 | 11 |
| 2012 | • Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. (386) | 27 | 6 | 100 | 414 | 86 | 500 | 2 |
| 2006 | • Shaun Alexander, Sea. (385) | 29 | 10 | 264 | 896 | 48 | 944 | 7 |
| 2005 | Edgerrin James, Ind. (385) | 27 | 15 | 404 | 1,506 | 337 | 1,843 | 14 |
| 2009 | Adrian Peterson, Min. (384) | 24 | 16 | 357 | 1,383 | 436 | 1,819 | 18 |
| 2005 | Clinton Portis, Was. (383) | 24 | 16 | 382 | 1,516 | 216 | 1,732 | 11 |
| 2003 | Priest Holmes, K.C. (383) | 30 | 16 | 394 | 1,420 | 690 | 2,110 | 27 |
| 2006 | • Clinton Portis, Was. (382) | 25 | 8 | 144 | 523 | 170 | 693 | 7 |
| 2009 | • Michael Turner, Atl. (382) | 27 | 11 | 183 | 871 | 35 | 906 | 10 |
| 2023 | Derrick Henry, Ten. (382) | 29 | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? | ? |
| 2019 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. (381) | 24 | 16 | 355 | 1,357 | 420 | 1,777 | 14 |
| 2022 | Najee Harris, Pitt. (381) | 24 | 17 | 313 | 1,034 | 229 | 1,263 | 10 |
| 2009 | Matt Forte, Chi. (379) | 24 | 16 | 315 | 929 | 471 | 1,400 | 4 |
| 2003 | Eddie George, Ten. (379) | 30 | 16 | 334 | 1,031 | 163 | 1,194 | 5 |
| 2011 | Steven Jackson, St.L. (376) | 28 | 15 | 302 | 1,145 | 333 | 1,478 | 6 |
| 2005 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. (376) | 28 | 16 | 385 | 1,880 | 78 | 1,958 | 28 |
| 2005 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. (376) | 26 | 16 | 360 | 1,458 | 90 | 1,548 | 12 |
| 2010 | Steven Jackson, St.L. (375) | 27 | 16 | 376 | 1,241 | 383 | 1,624 | 6 |
| 2008 | LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D. (375) | 29 | 16 | 344 | 1,110 | 426 | 1,536 | 12 |
| 2007 | Edgerrin James, Ariz. (375) | 29 | 16 | 348 | 1,222 | 204 | 1,426 | 7 |
| 2005 | Tiki Barber, NYG (374) | 30 | 16 | 411 | 1,860 | 530 | 2,390 | 11 |
| 2017 | • David Johnson, Ariz. (373) | 26 | 1 | 17 | 23 | 67 | 90 | 0 |
| 2015 | • LeVeon Bell, Pitt. (373) | 23 | 6 | 137 | 556 | 136 | 692 | 3 |
| 2007 | Frank Gore, S.F. (373) | 24 | 15 | 313 | 1,102 | 436 | 1,538 | 6 |
| 2003 | Tiki Barber, NYG (373) | 28 | 16 | 347 | 1,216 | 461 | 1,677 | 3 |
| 2022 | • Jonathan Taylor, Ind. (372) | 23 | 11 | 220 | 861 | 143 | 1,004 | 4 |
| 2008 | Clinton Portis, Was. (372) | 27 | 16 | 370 | 1,487 | 218 | 1,705 | 9 |
| 2003 | Deuce McAllister, N.O. (372) | 25 | 16 | 420 | 1,641 | 516 | 2,157 | 8 |
| 2009 | • Clinton Portis, Was. (370) | 28 | 8 | 133 | 494 | 57 | 551 | 2 |
| 2005 | • Domanick Williams, Hou. (370) | 25 | 11 | 269 | 976 | 337 | 1,313 | 6 |
| 2011 | Ray Rice, Balt. (370) | 24 | 16 | 367 | 1,364 | 704 | 2,068 | 15 |
| 2006 | Larry Johnson, K.C. (369) | 27 | 16 | 457 | 1,789 | 410 | 2,199 | 19 |
| 2013 | • Doug Martin, T.B. (368) | 24 | 6 | 139 | 456 | 66 | 522 | 1 |
| 2015 | Matt Forte, Chi. (368) | 30 | 13 | 262 | 898 | 389 | 1,287 | 7 |
| 2008 | Brian Westbrook, Phil. (368) | 29 | 14 | 287 | 936 | 402 | 1,338 | 14 |
| 2007 | Willie Parker, Pitt. (368) | 27 | 15 | 344 | 1,316 | 164 | 1,480 | 2 |
| 2003 | Travis Henry, Buff. (368) | 25 | 15 | 359 | 1,356 | 158 | 1,514 | 11 |
| 2004 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. (368) | 27 | 16 | 376 | 1,696 | 170 | 1,866 | 20 |
| 2012 | Ray Rice, Balt. (367) | 25 | 16 | 318 | 1,143 | 478 | 1,621 | 10 |
| 2014 | LeSean McCoy, Phil. (366) | 26 | 16 | 340 | 1,319 | 155 | 1,474 | 5 |
| 2010 | Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac. (365) | 25 | 14 | 333 | 1,324 | 317 | 1,641 | 7 |
| 2004 | Curtis Martin, NYJ (365) | 31 | 16 | 412 | 1,697 | 245 | 1,942 | 14 |
| 2007 | • Rudi Johnson, Cin. (364) | 28 | 11 | 183 | 497 | 110 | 607 | 4 |
| 2014 | Matt Forte, Chi. (363) | 29 | 16 | 368 | 1,038 | 808 | 1,846 | 10 |
| 2004 | Edgerrin James, Ind. (361) | 26 | 16 | 385 | 1,548 | 483 | 2,031 | 9 |
| 2005 | • Corey Dillon, N.E. (360) | 31 | 12 | 231 | 733 | 181 | 914 | 13 |
| 2011 | Chris Johnson, Ten. (360) | 26 | 16 | 319 | 1,047 | 418 | 1,465 | 4 |
| 2006 | Rudi Johnson, Cin. (360) | 27 | 16 | 364 | 1,309 | 124 | 1,433 | 12 |
| 2004 | • Travis Henry, Buff. (359) | 26 | 10 | 104 | 326 | 45 | 371 | 0 |
| 2016 | • Adrian Peterson, Min. (357) | 31 | 3 | 40 | 72 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| 2003 | Corey Dillon, Cin. (357) | 29 | 13 | 149 | 541 | 71 | 612 | 2 |
| 2010 | Adrian Peterson, Min. (357) | 25 | 15 | 319 | 1,298 | 341 | 1,639 | 13 |
| 2021 | Dalvin Cook, Min. (356) | 26 | 13 | 283 | 1,159 | 224 | 1,383 | 6 |
| 2020 | Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. (355) | 25 | 15 | 296 | 979 | 338 | 1,317 | 8 |
| 2003 | Jamal Lewis, Balt. (355) | 24 | 16 | 413 | 2,066 | 205 | 2,271 | 14 |
| 2017 | • Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. (354) | 22 | 10 | 268 | 983 | 269 | 1,252 | 9 |
| 2003 | Shaun Alexander, Sea. (354) | 26 | 16 | 368 | 1,435 | 295 | 1,730 | 16 |
| 2006 | Willis McGahee, Buff. (353) | 25 | 14 | 277 | 990 | 156 | 1,146 | 6 |
| 2019 | Saquon Barkley, NYG (352) | 22 | 13 | 269 | 1,003 | 438 | 1,441 | 8 |
On this topic, I also ran the numbers for running backs with 300 to 349 touches. I wanted to see if they looked noticeably more durable than the 350-plus guys. I didn’t see much; 26 of those 99 played in 12 or fewer games. That group averaged 14.5 games the next season, a little more than a game more than the first group of 80.
While 26 of 99 is better miss ratio than 25 of 80 (and with an extra game), the overall stats were weren’t compelling. The 350-plus touch players in their next seasons averaged 21 more touches for 102 more yards, with a 9.4 to 9.0 edge in touchdowns. So they finished with better stats (on average) despite playing a little less.
Circling back to our two candidates for this year, neither looks like a super compelling candidate. (Will be a surprise if at least one of them isn’t a black ball guy.) With he played in 17 games last year, Jacobs has had problems staying healthy in the past, and he’ll be running behind maybe the worst offensive line in the league. And I’m expecting the Raiders will have quarterbacking problems at some point. He’s also unsigned at this point, and we’ll need to see how that plays out. I wouldn’t be excited about coming out of a first round with Jacobs as my pick.
With Henry, I don’t know that it makes sense to compare him to other backs. He’s bigger than regular players, and with a history of getting better as he gets more carries. He’s like Jim Brown in the early ‘60s. But he’s also playing on a lesser team. The Colts and Texans are also in the AFC South, making Tennessee less likely to finish in last in its division, but it’s got a painfully limited offense. So I would say Henry is in the same class as Jacobs – a player who might grade out as a late first-round pick, but you don’t want to be the guy who selects him there.
—Ian Allan