Some positive reports out of Giants OTAs have centered on Parris Campbell. The former Colt has been busy, with the Athletic's Dan Duggan saying the free-agent signing looks like a "featured piece of the offense." It's a team in need of someone to step up atop the depth chart.
Campbell is entering his fifth year in the league, and comes off by far his best season, catching 63 passes for 623 yards and 3 touchdowns last year. I think he needs to be approached with a healthy amount of skepticism, given how little he's done his first four years. But he has a nice opportunity with a Giants team that doesn't have a clear No. 1 wide receiver. And while the history isn't great, he at least wouldn't be the first wideout to breakout in Year 4 and build on that in Year 5.
I took a look at all wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds this century -- Campbell was a 2019 second-rounder -- who did very little their first three seasons, then put up noteworthy numbers (I went with 500 receiving yards, so the term "breakout" is used loosely) in Year 4. It's not a big group (I came up with 11 such players), and the next-year track record is relatively poor.
Jordy Nelson would be the champion of this group. Nelson in his first three seasons with the Packers averaged just over 400 receiving yards and 2 TDs per year. In his fourth season, he blew up with 1,263 yards and 15 touchdowns, finishing as a top-5 wideout (PPR). He missed four games in his fifth season but was still a top-40 wideout, then went on to have three more 1,000-yard seasons. He's the outlier, but proves it can happen for Campbell.
Of the nine other players I came up with, however, none did much in Year 5. A couple slipped into the top 70 at the position. Most wound up fading out of the league within a year or two after their Year 4 success (modest though it was). The best of those players was Joe Jurevicius. He never hit it big with the Giants, but he won a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay and had a top-30 season (catching 10 touchdowns) with Seattle, going to another Super Bowl that year.
In the table, players are sorted by fantasy ranking in that fifth NFL season.
| YEAR 4 BREAKOUT WIDE RECEIVERS, ONE YEAR LATER | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rd | 4th | Player | No | Rec | TD | Rk | Next | Rk |
| 2 | 2011 | Jordy Nelson, G.B. | 68 | 1263 | 15 | 4 | 49-745-7 | 37 |
| 1 | 2006 | Bryant Johnson, Ariz. | 40 | 740 | 4 | 48 | 46-528-2 | 68 |
| 3 | 2010 | Jacoby Jones, Hou. | 51 | 562 | 3 | 57 | 31-512-3 | 68 |
| 2 | 2001 | Joe Jurevicius, NYG | 51 | 706 | 3 | 47 | 37-423-4 | 70 |
| 2 | 2011 | Jerome Simpson, Cin. | 50 | 725 | 4 | 46 | 26-274-0 | 106 |
| 1 | 2016 | Tavon Austin, LAR | 58 | 509 | 4 | 52 | 13-47-1 | 106 |
| 3 | 2002 | D'Wayne Bates, Min. | 50 | 689 | 4 | 52 | 15-151-1 | 109 |
| 3 | 2011 | Early Doucet, Ariz. | 54 | 689 | 5 | 43 | 28-207-0 | 111 |
| 2 | 2017 | Paul Richardson, Sea. | 44 | 703 | 6 | 39 | 20-262-2 | 111 |
| 1 | 2004 | David Terrell, Chi. | 42 | 699 | 1 | 55 | 0-0-0 | 999 |
| 2 | 2022 | Parris Campbell, Ind. | 63 | 623 | 3 | 48 | ??-??-?? | ?? |
In general, expectations should be kept in check for Campbell. Not many wideouts have done nothing for three years and then emerged as viable NFL starters.
But it's not impossible, so Campbell is a guy I'll be watching in the preseason, seeing if he can emerge as one of Daniel Jones' top targets. He's competing mostly with guys who haven't done much: Wan'Dale Robinson, and some sketchy or aging veterans (Isaiah Hodgins, Jamison Crowder, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton). No reason Campbell can't be this team's No. 1.
--Andy Richardson