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Dalvin Cook

Where will he land?

The report came out yesterday that Dalvin Cook has received multiple offers. It's exactly the kind of useless "news" report we get this time of year. Of course an unemployed running back who's put up over 1,300 total yards four years in a row would draw interest from multiple NFL teams. It doesn't mean much.

Are these multiple offers good ones? Evidently they're not good enough for him to accept one of them. Is he being offered featured back money? We don't know that either. Any free agent with Cook's resume who's of an acceptable age (he turns 28 in August) is going to get contract offers from a couple of teams, but that's a pretty empty report without knowing what they're offering.

We've been floated the names of some interested teams (Dolphins, Jets), but these are not teams necessarily throwing him the kind of numbers he's looking for. The Dolphins signed Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson each to contracts averaging $2.8-$3 million, with $5 million in guarantees, plus they drafted Devon Achane in the third round. They can't wind the clock back on any of those moves (I suppose you could argue they could eat some money on Mostert or Wilson), so who's to say they've come close to what Cook wants to sign for. "There's mutual interest" -- sure, the Florida native would be interested in playing for Miami. But if they offered what he was looking for, he'd likely have signed.

The Jets have Breece Hall, Michael Carter and intriguing rookie Israel Abanikanda. I'll leave out Zonovan Knight, and Hall is coming off injury, but regardless it's not a backfield that is necessarily screaming out for a feature guy atop the depth chart. Hall looked pretty good last year, and his ACL injury was in Week 7.

The Patriots and Broncos have also been mentioned. The New England report seems more likely to be agent talk. The Patriots seem pretty set with Rhamondre Stevenson atop the depth chart; why pay Cook a big chunk of money (which doesn't seem to be their approach) to push Stevenson into a backup role? Denver makes some sense because the Broncos have only Javonte Williams coming off injury and Samaje Perine. But the most recent reports on Javonte have been fairly promising.

The reality is that Cook, who until recently was playing on a contract averaging over $12 million per year, probably isn't looking to sign for cheap, and none of these multiple offers are necessarily close to what he's looking for. Would seem more reasonable for him to wait a little into training camp, to see if a team suffers an injury (Mostert, Wilson) or has a more negative view of its best back's health (Javonte), which might get him a single offer of very good money. And it's also fair to wonder if Cook is the same back he used to be.

Looking at his last three years, Cook looks to be a running back on the decline. His yards per carry has dropped from 5.0 to 4.7 to 4.4. And while he played in every game last year for the first time in his career, his yards per game has also declined in each of those past three years. The difference-maker in 2020 doesn't seem to be there any more.

That year, Cook put up 137 total yards per game, most of any running back the last three years. A year later, he slipped to 106 per game, and this past year, he was down at 86 yards per game -- 51 fewer than his 2020 peak. Not to knock the guy too much; that's still a top-40 figure from those three seasons, among all running backs with at least 200 carries. But he doesn't seem to be the player he was three years ago. If he's looking to be paid like he was when he got the previous contract from Minnesota, it might be a little while before he's off the market. I don't think teams are offering him that kind of coin, so it makes more sense to think he's hoping that something changes on one of those rosters (injury) to force their hands.

Top running back performers in terms of total yards per game the last three seasons (minimum 13 games) is shown in the table below. Even 2022 Cook was pretty good, but certainly a level below the previous two seasons.

RUNNING BACK YARDS PER GAME, 2020-2022
YearPlayerGAttYdsAvgRecYdsTDYards/G
2020Dalvin Cook, Min.1431215575.04436117137.0
2020Derrick Henry, Ten.1637820275.41911417133.8
2021Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1733218115.54036020127.7
2022Derrick Henry, Ten.1634915384.43339813121.0
2022Josh Jacobs, L.V.1734016534.95340012120.8
2020Alvin Kamara, N.O.151879325.08375621112.5
2022Christian McCaffrey, 2TM1724411394.78574113110.6
2021Dalvin Cook, Min.1324911594.7342246106.4
2020Aaron Jones, G.B.1420111045.54735511104.2
2022Nick Chubb, Cle.1730215255.02723913103.8
2022Saquon Barkley, NYG1629513124.45733810103.1
2021Alvin Kamara, N.O.132408983.7474399102.8
2021Nick Chubb, Cle.1422812595.5201749102.4
2020James Robinson, Jac.1424010704.54934410101.0
2020David Montgomery, Chi.1524710704.35443810100.5
2021Najee Harris, Pitt.1730712003.9744671098.1
2020Jonathan Taylor, Ind.1523211695.0362991297.9
2021Austin Ekeler, LAC162069114.4706472097.4
2022Austin Ekeler, LAC172049154.51077221896.3
2021Joe Mixon, Cin.1629212054.1423141694.9
2022Alvin Kamara, N.O.152238974.057490492.5
2021Leonard Fournette, T.B.141808124.5694541090.4
2022Joe Mixon, Cin.142108143.960441989.6
2022Aaron Jones, G.B.1721311215.359395789.2
2021David Montgomery, Chi.132258493.842301788.5
2020Ezekiel Elliott, Dall.152449794.052338887.8
2020Josh Jacobs, L.V.1527310653.9332381286.9
2022Dalvin Cook, Min.1726411734.4392951086.4
2022Tony Pollard, Dall.1619310075.2393711286.1
2022Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.1721010405.069421685.9
2022Dameon Pierce, Hou.132209394.330165584.9
2022Travis Etienne, Jac.1722011255.135316584.8
2020Clyde Edwards-Helaire, K.C.131818034.436297584.6
2022James Conner, Ari.131837824.346300883.2
2021Antonio Gibson, Was.1625810374.0422941083.2
2021D'Andre Swift, Det.131516174.162452782.2
2020Ronald Jones, T.B.141929785.128165881.6
2021Josh Jacobs, L.V.152178724.054348981.3
2022Kenneth Walker, Sea.1522810504.627165981.0
2021Aaron Jones, G.B.151717994.7523911079.3

--Andy Richardson

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