When I posted a story about mid-round quarterbacks with upside recently and mentioned Bailey Zappe, a reader scoffed at the idea that Mac Jones' starting job was in any jeopardy. And he's probably correct; even though Bill Belichick has talked as if every job, including quarterback, is up for competition, Jones will likely be starting all season. But long-term? That remains to be seen.
Certainly Jones' struggles last season can be blamed at least partly on the team's offensive coordinator vacancy, with a weird combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running things. Few young quarterbacks would have thrived in that scenario. And Jones showed promise as a rookie, when he went 10-7 and got the team into the playoffs.
But it hasn't all been good in those two seasons, and Jones has made a few more mistakes than you'd like, particularly considering it's not a high-flying, pass-first offense. He's thrown 25 interceptions in his 31 starts the last two seasons. Among quarterbacks who've started most of those two years (I went with 25 starts as the threshold), that's the 4th-worst interception rate. Only 10 of those 23 quarterbacks have attempted fewer passes than he has over that time frame. So while Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have thrown more interceptions, they've done it while attempting 250-340 more passes. Considerably worse frequency for Jones.
Data from pro-football-reference.com was used in assembling this table.
| INTERCEPTION RATE, 2021-2022 (25+ STARTS) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GS | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int | Int% |
| Justin Fields | 25 | 351 | 588 | 4112 | 24 | 21 | 3.6 |
| Davis Mills | 26 | 555 | 873 | 5782 | 33 | 25 | 2.9 |
| Matthew Stafford | 26 | 610 | 904 | 6973 | 51 | 25 | 2.8 |
| Mac Jones | 31 | 640 | 963 | 6798 | 36 | 24 | 2.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 28 | 671 | 990 | 7309 | 60 | 25 | 2.5 |
| Derek Carr | 32 | 733 | 1128 | 8326 | 47 | 28 | 2.5 |
| Matt Ryan | 29 | 684 | 1021 | 7025 | 34 | 25 | 2.4 |
| Josh Allen | 33 | 768 | 1213 | 8690 | 71 | 29 | 2.4 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 29 | 569 | 856 | 6270 | 34 | 20 | 2.3 |
| Joe Burrow | 32 | 780 | 1126 | 9086 | 69 | 26 | 2.3 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 25 | 522 | 788 | 6201 | 41 | 18 | 2.3 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 25 | 508 | 749 | 6247 | 36 | 16 | 2.1 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 34 | 746 | 1186 | 7754 | 37 | 25 | 2.1 |
| Kyler Murray | 25 | 592 | 871 | 6155 | 38 | 17 | 2.0 |
| Russell Wilson | 29 | 551 | 883 | 6637 | 41 | 17 | 1.9 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 34 | 871 | 1306 | 10089 | 78 | 25 | 1.9 |
| Justin Herbert | 34 | 920 | 1371 | 9753 | 63 | 25 | 1.8 |
| Kirk Cousins | 33 | 796 | 1204 | 8768 | 62 | 21 | 1.7 |
| Jalen Hurts | 30 | 571 | 892 | 6845 | 38 | 15 | 1.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 716 | 1073 | 7810 | 63 | 16 | 1.5 |
| Tom Brady | 34 | 975 | 1452 | 10010 | 68 | 21 | 1.4 |
| Daniel Jones | 27 | 549 | 833 | 5633 | 25 | 12 | 1.4 |
| Jared Goff | 31 | 714 | 1081 | 7683 | 48 | 15 | 1.4 |
The presence of Justin Fields at the top isn't overly surprising, though at least he was worse as a rookie (10 interceptions in his 11 starts) than in year two (11 in 15 starts, with an interception rate of 3.5 compared to 3.7). But it is a reminder that Chicago can't be 100 percent sure it's got its franchise quarterback, and why some felt they should have stayed put at No. 1 and drafted a quarterback this year. No. 2 on this list, Davis Mills, won't be starting for Houston this year. Matthew Stafford won a Super Bowl even while leading the league in interceptions (17) in 2021, but at least he did it while running one of the league's pass-happiest offenses (and also throwing 41 touchdowns).
In any case, I don't think Jones' job will seriously be threatened in August, and not by Bailey Zappe. But he's not necessarily the long-term answer in New England. He'll need to improve this season to still be starting in 2024.
--Andy Richardson