Joe Mixon was due to make $9.4 million this season, and that coupled with the possibility of a suspension looming for a weapons charge led to speculation he'd be released. Looks like that's not going to happen, with the team and Mixon agreeing on a contract restructure yesterday.
According to the story, he'll take a $3 million pay cut. Generally in situations of this sort his new salary will be guaranteed, and Zac Taylor had said back in April that Mixon would be back with the team. So people can still take late-round fliers on rookie Chase Brown, but it should be Mixon's gig for one more year.
What can reasonably be debated is whether he should still be considered a top back. As we pointed out in the magazine. he's averaged just 3.9 yards per attempt the last three seasons, 4th-lowest among all running backs with at least 300 carries over that time frame. Some of that average can be attributed to the offensive line, perhaps, but Samaje Perine (now with Denver) was better than Mixon in all three of those years -- a lot better in two of them. Mixon turns 27 later this month.
But this is fantasy football, where usage and opportunity counts for a lot. Mixon remains a workhorse, probably even more so this upcoming season with Perine gone and the other options on the roster all late-round picks (Brown, Chris Evans and Trayveon Williams). And he's been awfully productive in this offense.
While his rushing efficiency hasn't been particularly impressive, his receiving work has increased. He had a career-high 60 catches last year, and 102 over the past two seasons. That production has helped him put up the 5th-best per-game numbers (PPR) over the last two years, among running backs to start at least half the time. That was with Perine (65 catches those two seasons) on the roster; their current options behind Mixon are far less proven.
| RUNNING BACKS PER GAME, 2021-2022 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | St | Run | No | Rec | Total | TD | PPR |
| Austin Ekeler, LAC | 33 | 55.3 | 5.4 | 41.5 | 96.8 | 1.17 | 22.1 |
| Derrick Henry, Ten. | 24 | 103.1 | 2.1 | 23.0 | 126.1 | .97 | 20.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey, S.F. | 23 | 67.1 | 5.2 | 46.1 | 113.2 | .65 | 20.4 |
| Jonathan Taylor, Ind. | 28 | 95.4 | 2.4 | 18.0 | 113.4 | .86 | 18.9 |
| Joe Mixon, Cin. | 30 | 67.3 | 3.4 | 25.2 | 92.5 | .83 | 17.6 |
| Josh Jacobs, L.V. | 32 | 78.9 | 3.3 | 23.4 | 102.3 | .66 | 17.5 |
| Leonard Fournette, T.B. | 29 | 51.0 | 4.9 | 33.6 | 84.6 | .55 | 16.6 |
| James Conner, Ariz. | 28 | 54.8 | 3.0 | 24.1 | 78.9 | .93 | 16.4 |
| Alvin Kamara, N.O. | 28 | 64.1 | 3.7 | 33.2 | 97.3 | .46 | 16.2 |
| Nick Chubb, Cle. | 31 | 89.8 | 1.5 | 13.3 | 103.1 | .72 | 16.2 |
| Najee Harris, Pitt. | 34 | 65.7 | 3.4 | 20.5 | 86.2 | .59 | 15.5 |
| Dalvin Cook, Min. | 30 | 77.7 | 2.4 | 17.3 | 95.0 | .54 | 15.2 |
| Aaron Jones, G.B. | 32 | 60.0 | 3.5 | 24.6 | 84.6 | .54 | 15.2 |
| Saquon Barkley, NYG | 29 | 65.7 | 3.4 | 20.7 | 86.4 | .49 | 15.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E. | 19 | 61.9 | 3.9 | 23.1 | 85.0 | .42 | 14.9 |
| D'Andre Swift, Det. | 27 | 42.9 | 4.1 | 31.1 | 74.1 | .57 | 14.9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott, Dall. | 32 | 58.7 | 2.0 | 11.8 | 70.5 | .78 | 13.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl. | 28 | 46.3 | 2.5 | 23.9 | 70.1 | .68 | 13.6 |
| David Montgomery, Chi. | 29 | 56.9 | 2.6 | 21.3 | 78.2 | .45 | 13.1 |
| Tony Pollard, Dall. | 31 | 55.7 | 2.5 | 22.8 | 78.5 | .45 | 13.1 |
| Antonio Gibson, Was. | 31 | 51.1 | 2.8 | 20.9 | 71.9 | .49 | 13.0 |
| James Robinson, Jac. | 20 | 55.4 | 2.0 | 13.4 | 68.8 | .60 | 12.5 |
| Damien Harris, N.E. | 25 | 55.3 | 1.4 | 9.1 | 64.4 | .72 | 12.1 |
| Javonte Williams, Den. | 21 | 52.7 | 2.8 | 18.7 | 71.4 | .33 | 11.9 |
| Darrell Henderson, LAR | 19 | 48.2 | 2.2 | 13.7 | 61.8 | .58 | 11.9 |
| Miles Sanders, Phil. | 29 | 69.8 | 1.6 | 8.1 | 77.9 | .39 | 11.7 |
| Jerick McKinnon, K.C. | 17 | 17.1 | 3.3 | 30.1 | 47.2 | .61 | 11.7 |
| Jamaal Williams, Det. | 30 | 55.6 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 63.2 | .68 | 11.7 |
| Devin Singletary, Buff. | 33 | 51.2 | 2.4 | 15.4 | 66.6 | .42 | 11.6 |
| Jeff Wilson, Mia. | 17 | 60.6 | 1.4 | 10.9 | 71.5 | .47 | 11.4 |
| Melvin Gordon, Den. | 26 | 47.5 | 2.0 | 16.8 | 64.3 | .46 | 11.2 |
| D'Onta Foreman, Car. | 20 | 72.2 | .7 | 7.5 | 79.6 | .42 | 11.2 |
| AJ Dillon, G.B. | 34 | 46.3 | 1.8 | 15.3 | 61.5 | .41 | 10.4 |
| Chuba Hubbard, Car. | 19 | 49.8 | 1.7 | 14.7 | 64.5 | .37 | 10.3 |
| Michael Carter, NYJ | 27 | 38.1 | 2.5 | 20.9 | 59.0 | .26 | 10.0 |
| J.D. McKissic, Was. | 19 | 16.2 | 3.7 | 30.0 | 46.2 | .23 | 9.7 |
| Kareem Hunt, Cle. | 25 | 34.2 | 2.3 | 15.4 | 49.5 | .37 | 9.5 |
| Kenyan Drake, Balt. | 22 | 33.2 | 2.0 | 17.2 | 50.4 | .36 | 9.3 |
| Latavius Murray, Den. | 21 | 47.4 | 1.2 | 6.8 | 54.2 | .38 | 8.9 |
| Mike Davis, 2TM | 17 | 29.6 | 2.6 | 15.2 | 44.8 | .24 | 8.5 |
| Nyheim Hines, 2TM | 17 | 16.2 | 2.4 | 18.2 | 34.5 | .18 | 6.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell, Phil. | 18 | 17.7 | 1.5 | 9.9 | 27.6 | .28 | 5.9 |
| Mark Ingram, N.O. | 17 | 31.0 | 1.4 | 5.4 | 36.4 | .14 | 5.8 |
| Kyle Juszczyk, S.F. | 33 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 15.0 | 16.5 | .12 | 3.9 |
I wouldn't select Mixon 5th at the position, but that's not necessary. ADP data suggests he's being selected almost 10 spots lower than that in early drafts, probably in part due to a possible suspension, and also the concern he'd be cut. (The legal issue was a charge of "misdemeanor aggravated menacing," where he allegedly pointed a gun at a woman.) He'll probably climb a couple of spots now that it's clear he'll be back with the Bengals, although the legal situation is still unsettled.
I think he makes a lot of sense as a late second- or at least early third-round pick, particularly if you're able to land a top player at another position beforehand. Seems like he should outperform where he's being selected.
--Andy Richardson