Javonte Williams hasn't attracted a lot of love in early drafts. Coming off a torn ACL (and other ligament damage), he's been barely sneaking into the top 30 running backs, about a 7th-round pick in PPR leagues, according to ADP data. But things are looking up.
Williams has avoided the PUP list to start training camp, which indicates the Broncos believe he'll be able to participate in team practices early on (perhaps right away). No doubt they'll go slow, and he'll be wearing a red non-contact jersey, but it's a good sign for his Week 1 availability, and his chances of being a significant player -- perhaps a steal -- this season.
Williams' first two years in the league have been mostly disappointing. Melvin Gordon was around for his entire first season to share/hog touches, and then just when the team had seemingly pulled the plug on a struggling Gordon last year, Williams blew out his knee and was lost for the season. So other than a couple of games, we really haven't been able to see what he can do.
But the fact that Denver only added Samaje Perine in the offseason is a plus, and Williams avoiding the PUP list is another. He might not be 100 percent in Week 1, but he will presumably be active and playing, with his role expanding as he shows he can handle it. There's a path to him being the lead back with Perine being more of a change-of-pace or third-down guy -- maybe not right away, but maybe early enough to make him a significant player.
Thus far, that shared workload (and injury) has prevented Williams from putting up big numbers in most games. But the ones where he's gotten about or more than 60 percent of the snaps have mostly been good.
The table shows all the games his first two seasons where Javonte has received more than 45 percent of the playing time, sorted by that snap percentage. In the five games where he's played about 60 percent of the time, he's cleared 20 points (PPR) three times and 12 in a fourth. Three times he managed double-digit points with just about half the snaps. Most of his lesser games were with simply not getting enough playing time.
| WILLIAMS WITH OVER 45 PERCENT OF SNAPS | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Opp | Run | No | Rec | TD | Pct | PPR |
| 2021 | at K.C. | 102 | 6 | 76 | 1 | 78% | 29.8 |
| 2022 | Hou. | 75 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 65% | 9.5 |
| 2021 | Cin. | 72 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 59% | 12.1 |
| 2022 | at Sea. | 43 | 11 | 65 | 0 | 58% | 21.8 |
| 2021 | LAC | 54 | 3 | 57 | 1 | 58% | 20.1 |
| 2021 | Phi. | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 57% | 6.9 |
| 2021 | K.C. | 46 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 56% | 8.4 |
| 2021 | at L.V. | 12 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 52% | 10.0 |
| 2021 | Bal. | 48 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 51% | 8.9 |
| 2021 | at NYG | 45 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 50% | 5.1 |
| 2021 | at LAC | 30 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 50% | 4.2 |
| 2021 | Det. | 73 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 49% | 21.3 |
| 2021 | at Dal. | 111 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 47% | 11.1 |
| 2021 | L.V. | 53 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 47% | 9.8 |
The news that he's avoided the PUP list to start camp might push his ADP up some. It will probably also push Perine's down. I think the negative with the backfield is that we will probably see a committee early on, preventing either from putting up big numbers. And protecting yourself in this backfield might require using decent picks (say, rounds 6-9) on both players, which will be too rich for some.
But we'll see. Perhaps Williams will still be a value in drafts, as teams shy away, and Perine will be an even better one (if people start thinking he'll open as a backup). I see potential value in this backfield. And a really good starter if we keep getting positive news on Javonte.
--Andy Richardson