I am not a fan of the rookie receivers. I think it’s going to be a down year for them. But that said, they’re tending to do more earlier than they have in the past.
I think it’s through some combination of them getting more pass-catching reps at the high school and college levels, along with coaches doing a better job of utilizing them. As outlined in S.C. Gwynne’s “The Perfect Pass” (which I’m finishing up right now) coaches are better now at drawing up plays that are easy to teach but difficult to defend. They’re going a better job of using space and route adjustments, along with adjusting plays at the line of scrimmage and using tempo.
And they’ve been helped along by some rule adjustments.
Whatever the reason, we’re seeing more receivers have success early.
With numbers in general growing, best to not look at stat totals but instead where the player placed at his position.
In the past 10 years, 27 rookie receivers have finished with top-30 numbers (that’s using PPR scoring, results might vary slightly using other scoring systems). That includes four receivers who’ve finished with top-10 numbers – JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham.
In the previous 10 years, only 16 rookie receivers finished with top-30 numbers, barely half as many. And with only one (Anquan Boldin) ranking higher than 14th.
If we got back to the ‘90s, only 10 wide receivers in that decade finished with top-30 numbers, and with only one (Randy Moss) ranking higher than 12th.
In the ‘80s, I see 16 finishing in the top 30, with three sneaking into the top 10 (Bill Brook, Eddie Brown, Cris Collinsworth). It’s a different game now.
The overall trends suggest that going forward, there should be about three rookie receivers in the top 30 in a typical year. I don’t see that happening this year. Jaxon Smith-Njigba looks good, but I fear he’ll be crowded out, with the Seahawks already having a pair of standout receivers. Maybe one of the other first-rounders – Zay Flowers (pictured), Jordan Addison, Quentin Johnston – is a lot better than I’m expecting, but right now I have zero interest in selecting any of those guys among the top 40 receivers (I see those three as late-late round gambles). Similarly, four other receivers were picked in the second round, but I don’t see any of them as anything more than a flyer-type possibility right now.
With the game seemingly changing and a lot of darts being thrown, probably one of those rookies will surprisingly finish with top-30 numbers. But it’s not going to be the usual three, I think.
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (last 10 yrs) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2021 | JaMarr Chase, Cin. | 81 | 1455 | 13 | 306.6 | 5 |
2020 | Justin Jefferson, Min. | 88 | 1400 | 7 | 274.2 | 6 |
2016 | Michael Thomas, N.O. | 92 | 1137 | 9 | 259.7 | 7 |
2014 | Odell Beckham, NYG | 91 | 1305 | 12 | 297.0 | 8 |
2021 | Jaylen Waddle, Mia. | 104 | 1015 | 7 | 247.8 | 12 |
2014 | Mike Evans, T.B. | 68 | 1051 | 12 | 245.1 | 13 |
2014 | Kelvin Benjamin, Car. | 73 | 1008 | 9 | 227.8 | 16 |
2016 | Tyreek Hill, K.C. | 61 | 593 | 12 | 219.0 | 18 |
2013 | Keenan Allen, S.D. | 71 | 1046 | 8 | 223.6 | 18 |
2018 | Calvin Ridley, Atl. | 64 | 821 | 10 | 208.8 | 20 |
2017 | JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pitt. | 58 | 917 | 8 | 197.7 | 20 |
2022 | Garrett Wilson, NYJ | 83 | 1103 | 4 | 217.7 | 21 |
2015 | Amari Cooper, Oak. | 72 | 1070 | 6 | 214.7 | 21 |
2021 | Amon-Ra St. Brown, Det. | 90 | 912 | 6 | 227.3 | 22 |
2020 | CeeDee Lamb, Dall. | 74 | 935 | 7 | 219.7 | 22 |
2019 | A.J. Brown, Ten. | 52 | 1051 | 9 | 217.1 | 22 |
2020 | Chase Claypool, Pitt. | 62 | 873 | 11 | 216.9 | 23 |
2022 | Chris Olave, N.O. | 72 | 1042 | 4 | 202.2 | 24 |
2017 | Cooper Kupp, LAR | 62 | 869 | 5 | 178.9 | 25 |
2014 | Jordan Matthews, Phil. | 67 | 872 | 8 | 202.2 | 25 |
2014 | Sammy Watkins, Buff. | 65 | 982 | 6 | 200.0 | 27 |
2022 | Drake London, Atl. | 72 | 866 | 4 | 184.6 | 28 |
2020 | Tee Higgins, Cin. | 67 | 908 | 6 | 196.6 | 28 |
2019 | DK Metcalf, Sea. | 58 | 900 | 7 | 193.1 | 29 |
2021 | DeVonta Smith, Phil. | 64 | 916 | 5 | 187.6 | 30 |
2019 | Terry McLaurin, Was. | 58 | 919 | 7 | 191.9 | 30 |
2014 | Jarvis Landry, Mia. | 84 | 758 | 5 | 189.4 | 30 |
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (2003-12) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
2003 | Anquan Boldin, Ariz. | 101 | 1377 | 8 | 290.7 | 3 |
2008 | Eddie Royal, Den. | 91 | 980 | 5 | 231.9 | 14 |
2004 | Michael Clayton, T.B. | 80 | 1193 | 7 | 244.3 | 14 |
2010 | Mike Williams, T.B. | 65 | 964 | 11 | 227.4 | 16 |
2006 | Marques Colston, N.O. | 70 | 1038 | 8 | 221.8 | 16 |
2011 | A.J. Green, Cin. | 65 | 1057 | 7 | 218.0 | 17 |
2011 | Julio Jones, Atl. | 54 | 959 | 8 | 203.5 | 21 |
2007 | Dwayne Bowe, K.C. | 70 | 995 | 5 | 199.5 | 22 |
2003 | Andre Johnson, Hou. | 66 | 976 | 4 | 186.6 | 22 |
2009 | Percy Harvin, Min. | 60 | 790 | 8 | 200.5 | 23 |
2012 | T.Y. Hilton, Ind. | 50 | 861 | 8 | 187.0 | 28 |
2012 | Justin Blackmon, Jac. | 64 | 865 | 5 | 184.8 | 29 |
2009 | Austin Collie, Ind. | 60 | 676 | 7 | 169.7 | 29 |
2004 | Lee Evans, Buff. | 48 | 843 | 9 | 194.8 | 29 |
2011 | Torrey Smith, Balt. | 50 | 841 | 7 | 180.0 | 30 |
2008 | DeSean Jackson, Phil. | 62 | 912 | 4 | 186.8 | 30 |
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (1990-99) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
1998 | Randy Moss, Min. | 69 | 1313 | 17 | 306.7 | 2 |
1996 | Terry Glenn, N.E. | 90 | 1132 | 6 | 243.4 | 12 |
1995 | Joey Galloway, Sea. | 67 | 1039 | 9 | 240.3 | 17 |
1996 | Eddie Kennison, St.L. | 54 | 924 | 11 | 212.4 | 19 |
1999 | Kevin Johnson, Cle. | 66 | 986 | 8 | 212.0 | 22 |
1996 | Keyshawn Johnson, NYJ | 63 | 844 | 8 | 197.4 | 23 |
1996 | Marvin Harrison, Ind. | 64 | 836 | 8 | 197.1 | 24 |
1994 | Darnay Scott, Cin. | 46 | 866 | 5 | 175.9 | 25 |
1991 | Lawrence Dawsey, T.B. | 55 | 818 | 4 | 161.7 | 30 |
1990 | Ricky Proehl, Phoe. | 56 | 802 | 4 | 160.6 | 30 |
ROOKIE RECEIVERS WITH TOP-30 NUMBERS (1980-89) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Player | Rec | Yds | TD | PPR | Rk |
1986 | Bill Brooks, Ind. | 65 | 1131 | 8 | 226.6 | 8 |
1985 | Eddie Brown, Cin. | 53 | 942 | 8 | 208.1 | 9 |
1981 | Cris Collinsworth, Cin. | 67 | 1009 | 8 | 215.9 | 10 |
1984 | Louis Lipps, Pitt. | 45 | 860 | 11 | 204.1 | 13 |
1986 | Ernest Givins, Hou. | 61 | 1062 | 4 | 206.0 | 15 |
1983 | Willie Gault, Chi. | 40 | 836 | 8 | 174.7 | 18 |
1984 | Bobby Johnson, NYG | 48 | 795 | 7 | 169.5 | 23 |
1984 | Daryl Turner, Sea. | 35 | 715 | 10 | 166.5 | 24 |
1985 | Jerry Rice, S.F. | 49 | 927 | 4 | 168.3 | 25 |
1988 | Tim Brown, Oak. | 43 | 725 | 7 | 162.5 | 27 |
1980 | Art Monk, Was. | 58 | 797 | 3 | 155.7 | 27 |
1989 | Shawn Collins, Atl. | 58 | 862 | 3 | 162.2 | 28 |
1989 | Andre Rison, Ind. | 52 | 820 | 4 | 159.8 | 29 |
1988 | Brian Blades, Sea. | 40 | 682 | 8 | 158.6 | 29 |
1989 | Hart Lee Dykes, N.E. | 49 | 795 | 5 | 158.5 | 30 |
1986 | Mike Sherrard, Dall. | 41 | 744 | 5 | 146.5 | 30 |
—Ian Allan