C.J. Stroud got off to a rough start on Thursday night. But if recent years are any indication, best to not get too concerned at this point.
We’re talking, after all, about six pass plays. He’s got plenty of time to turn things around. But it was a bumpy start for the rookie.
Stroud finished with 2 completions in 4 attempts, a couple of harmless short throws for 13 yards. His first drive ended with a interception, with him very much looking like a college guy trying to play against pros. He had another throw that was high and inside that could have been picked. He was saved another incompletion by a roughing-the-passer penalty, and he took at 15-yard sack that probably should have been avoided.
On the plus side, he ran twice. He gained only 4 and 2 yards on those plays, but it’s an indication he might be more willing to run now than he did at the college level. Stroud moves well, but he didn’t run much at all at Ohio State (at least until surprising Georgia in his last game). I stumbled onto a weird little factoid when writing up Stroud for the magazine. He’s the first quarterback chosen in the first round since Jim Druckenmiller in 1997 who didn’t run for a touchdown in a game he started at the college level (the clunking phrasing necessary because Stroud ran for a touchdown off the bench in his only game as a freshman).
While Stroud is off to a sucky start, I have not seen much correlation over the years between a rookie quarterback playing well in the preseason and then excelling in the real games. Below see all rookie quarterbacks who started at least eight games as rookies. I’ve got them ordered by their passer rating in the preseason, with the best preseason passers at the top, and the Stroud-type strugglers at the bottom.
The final column shows how the quarterbacks went on to perform in the regular season, using per-game production (I’ve got that column in bold, so it stands out). Four rookies went on to post top-10 numbers, and I’ve got their names in bold. Another four posted top-15 numbers; I’ve got them tagged with black dots.
Note that the desirable quarterbacks (the ones in bold or tagged with black dots) don’t tend to appear near the top. They’re instead spread out. Since 2011, Cam Newton has posted the best rookie quarterbacking numbers. I remember him struggling in his initial preseason, completing only 42 percent (and also not running much at all). Newton went on to pass for over 400 yards in his first pro game.
I’m not promising a Newton-type switcheroo. I have Stroud ranked well below the other two notable rookie quarterbacks. But it’s too early to be making any rash decisions.
| ROOKIES: PRESEASON PASSING STATS (since 2011) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Player | Att | Com | Yds | Pct | TD | Int | Rating | Rk |
| 2016 | Dak Prescott, Dall. | 50 | 39 | 454 | 78.0 | 5 | 0 | 137.8 | 17 |
| 2021 | Zach Wilson, NYJ | 20 | 15 | 191 | 75.0 | 2 | 0 | 137.7 | 31 |
| 2019 | • Daniel Jones, NYG | 34 | 29 | 416 | 85.3 | 2 | 0 | 137.3 | 8 |
| 2022 | Kenny Pickett, Pitt. | 36 | 29 | 261 | 80.6 | 3 | 0 | 124.7 | 30 |
| 2013 | EJ Manuel, Buff. | 33 | 26 | 199 | 78.8 | 2 | 0 | 112.0 | 25 |
| 2014 | Teddy Bridgewater, Minn. | 49 | 30 | 283 | 61.2 | 5 | 0 | 111.2 | 21 |
| 2012 | • Russell Wilson, Sea. | 63 | 40 | 536 | 63.5 | 5 | 1 | 110.3 | 12 |
| 2014 | Blake Bortles, Jac. | 51 | 32 | 521 | 62.7 | 2 | 0 | 110.0 | 27 |
| 2014 | Derek Carr, Oak. | 45 | 30 | 326 | 66.7 | 4 | 1 | 108.2 | 28 |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence, Jac. | 44 | 31 | 323 | 70.5 | 2 | 0 | 106.5 | 30 |
| 2017 | Mitchell Trubisky, Chi. | 53 | 36 | 364 | 67.9 | 3 | 0 | 106.2 | 29 |
| 2012 | • Robert Griffin, Wash. | 31 | 20 | 193 | 64.5 | 2 | 0 | 103.3 | 5 |
| 2015 | Marcus Mariota, Tenn. | 30 | 21 | 326 | 70.0 | 1 | 1 | 102.9 | 16 |
| 2021 | Mac Jones, N.E. | 52 | 36 | 388 | 69.2 | 1 | 0 | 97.3 | 26 |
| 2021 | Justin Fields, Chi. | 49 | 30 | 276 | 61.2 | 2 | 0 | 90.2 | 29 |
| 2012 | • Andrew Luck, Ind. | 66 | 41 | 522 | 62.1 | 3 | 2 | 89.3 | 10 |
| 2018 | • Baker Mayfield, Clev. | 61 | 35 | 501 | 57.4 | 2 | 1 | 88.2 | 11 |
| 2018 | Sam Darnold, NYJ | 45 | 29 | 244 | 64.4 | 2 | 1 | 83.9 | 27 |
| 2018 | • Josh Allen, Buff. | 44 | 24 | 210 | 54.5 | 2 | 0 | 82.6 | 13 |
| 2018 | Josh Rosen, Ariz. | 29 | 16 | 148 | 55.2 | 1 | 0 | 80.8 | 32 |
| 2011 | Christian Ponder, Minn. | 49 | 27 | 290 | 55.1 | 1 | 0 | 79.5 | 24 |
| 2019 | • Kyler Murray, Ariz. | 36 | 23 | 193 | 63.9 | 0 | 0 | 77.7 | 13 |
| 2017 | DeShone Kizer, Clev. | 49 | 25 | 351 | 51.0 | 1 | 1 | 72.7 | 21 |
| 2012 | Ryan Tannehill, Mia. | 78 | 41 | 414 | 52.6 | 1 | 1 | 66.9 | 28 |
| 2011 | • Cam Newton, Car. | 57 | 24 | 300 | 42.1 | 1 | 0 | 64.9 | 4 |
| 2011 | Blaine Gabbert, Jac. | 70 | 35 | 365 | 50.0 | 1 | 1 | 64.3 | 33 |
| 2012 | Brandon Weeden, Clev. | 49 | 24 | 297 | 49.0 | 0 | 1 | 59.7 | 27 |
| 2011 | Andy Dalton, Cin. | 60 | 36 | 328 | 60.0 | 1 | 3 | 59.6 | 21 |
| 2013 | Geno Smith, NYJ | 37 | 22 | 246 | 59.5 | 1 | 3 | 54.6 | 27 |
| 2015 | Jameis Winston, T.B. | 47 | 23 | 311 | 48.9 | 0 | 2 | 52.7 | 17 |
| 2016 | Carson Wentz, Phil. | 24 | 12 | 89 | 50.0 | 0 | 1 | 41.8 | 27 |
—Ian Allan