Fantasy Index

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Factoid

Rookie QBs

Do defenses come up big against inexperienced quarterbacks?

Three quarterbacks were picked with the first four picks of the draft, and they’re all starting on opening day. That gets my attention, with the potential for more sacks and turnovers.

Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, after all, both threw ill-advised interceptions on their first series in the preseason. Bryce Young took 3 sacks. They all look capable of melting down against front-line defenses.

Baltimore’s defense (against Stroud) looks particularly good to me. It’s also reasonable to rank the Falcons and Jaguars higher than usual. Atlanta didn’t have many sacks last year, but it’s running a different, more aggressive scheme.

Looking at past years, however, I notice that rookie quarterbacks haven’t been quite as error prone as I was expecting. In the 32-team era, 23 quarterbacks selected in the first round have started openers. They’ve taken 52 sacks and thrown 30 interceptions, with 2 of those balls returned for touchdowns. Odd-tilting numbers, but not a slam dunk for success.

Of those 23 quarterbacks, I see only 7 who took more than 2 sacks (less than a third), and I see only 7 who threw multiple interceptions. I see only two who did both.

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS IN WEEK 1 STARTS
YearPlayerOppResultCmpAttYdsTDIntSk
2002• David Carr, Hou.Dall.W 19-101022145216
2003Kyle Boller, Balt.at Pitt.L 15-342243152112
2004Carson Palmer, Cin.at NYJL 24-311827248211
2008• Matt Ryan, Atl.Det.W 34-21913161101
2008• Joe Flacco, Balt.Cin.W 17-101529129000
2009Matthew Stafford, Det.at N.O.L 27-451637205031
2009• Mark Sanchez, NYJat Hou.W 24-71831272110
2010Sam Bradford, St.L.Ari.L 13-173255253132
2011Cam Newton, Car.at Ari.L 21-282437422214
2012Brandon Weeden, Cle.Phil.L 16-171235118042
2012Andrew Luck, Ind.at Chi.L 21-412345309133
2012Ryan Tannehill, Mia.at Hou.L 10-302036219032
2012• Robert Griffin, Was.at N.O.W 40-321926320202
2013EJ Manuel, Buff.N.E.L 21-231827150200
2015Jameis Winston, T.B.Ten.L 14-421633210224
2015• Marcus Mariota, Ten.at T.B.W 42-141315209402
2016• Carson Wentz, Phil.Cle.W 29-102237278202
2018• Sam Darnold, NYJat Det.W 48-171621198212
2019Kyler Murray, Ari.Det.T 27-272954308215
2020Joe Burrow, Cin.LACL 13-162336193013
2021Trevor Lawrence, Jac.at Hou.L 21-372851332331
2021Zach Wilson, NYJat Car.L 14-192037258216
2021Mac Jones, N.E.Mia.L 16-172939281101
2022A. Richardson, Ind.Jac.???????
2022C.J. Stroud, Hou.at Balt.???????
2022Bryce Young, Car.at Atl.???????

Statistics compiled using search tools at Pro-Football-Reference.com

—Ian Allan

Fantasy Index