Bill Belichick has been remarkably bad at drafting wide receivers. N’Keal Harry, Chad Jackson, Bethel Johnson, Aaron Dobson. But he’s been remarkably good at finding and developing more unheralded wide receivers, and I’m wondering if he’s got another one of those guys on his hands.
No team has been better over the last 20 years at getting good production out of receivers other teams have overlooked. The Patriots saw the value in using a seventh-round pick on Julian Edelman, who was a quarterback at Kent State. And Belichick saw potential in Wes Welker (who wasn’t drafted) swinging a trade for him before his career got rolling. David Patten, Kendrick Bourne, Danny Amendola and Jakobi Meyers all went undrafted, and all have had good seasons for the Patriots.
David Givens and Troy Brown were late-round picks who played well for the Patriots (though Brown was playing well before Belichick showed up).
Since the move to 32 teams in 2002, 28 times a New England receiver has finished with top-40 numbers (PPR scoring) 28 times, and over two thirds of those players have been guys who originally went undrafted or were picked no higher than the seventh round. That’s by far the most (over half of the teams in the league have had no more than two such receivers, and seven haven’t had any at all).
| UNHERALDED RECEIVERS WITH TOP-40 NUMBERS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | No | Total | Pct |
| New England | 19 | 28 | 68% |
| New Orleans | 15 | 30 | 50% |
| Tennessee | 6 | 17 | 35% |
| Buffalo | 7 | 26 | 27% |
| Green Bay | 8 | 32 | 25% |
| LA Chargers | 6 | 24 | 25% |
| Minnesota | 6 | 27 | 22% |
| NY Jets | 5 | 27 | 19% |
| Dallas | 5 | 29 | 17% |
| Denver | 5 | 29 | 17% |
| Cincinnati | 5 | 37 | 14% |
| Seattle | 4 | 30 | 13% |
| NY Giants | 3 | 25 | 12% |
| Houston | 2 | 21 | 10% |
| Las Vegas | 2 | 22 | 9% |
| Miami | 2 | 24 | 8% |
| Tampa Bay | 2 | 28 | 7% |
| Chicago | 1 | 17 | 6% |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 22 | 5% |
| Baltimore | 1 | 23 | 4% |
| Atlanta | 1 | 26 | 4% |
| Carolina | 1 | 27 | 4% |
| LA Rams | 1 | 27 | 4% |
| Philadelphia | 1 | 27 | 4% |
| Detroit | 1 | 28 | 4% |
| Pittsburgh | 0 | 40 | 0% |
| Indianapolis | 0 | 32 | 0% |
| Arizona | 0 | 30 | 0% |
| Washington | 0 | 22 | 0% |
| San Francisco | 0 | 20 | 0% |
| Kansas City | 0 | 18 | 0% |
| Cleveland | 0 | 16 | 0% |
With that in mind, I’ve got my eye on Demario Douglas. He’s the slot receiver out of Liberty that New England selected in the sixth round. He had the nice game against Buffalo, catching 4 passes for 54 yards, including a catch at the end that was inches away from being the game-winning touchdown.
Earlier in the season, he had a 4-catch game against the Eagles, and a 42-yard catch at Dallas. He played more against Buffalo because JuJu Smith-Schuster was sidelined by a concussion. The Patriots signed Smith-Schuster to a big contract in the offseason, but Douglas on Sunday played better than he has all year. Smith-Schuster has caught only 14 of the 25 passes thrown his way and is averaging only 6.1 yards per catch.
It's a performance-based business. With that in mind, I think the Patriots will turn the page, transitioning from Smith-Schuster. Douglas just seems to be better, and I think we’ll see him in that role in the second half of the season. For the rest of this season, I expect he’ll be their 2nd-most productive wide receiver (behind Kendrick Bourne).
I’m not suggesting that Douglas is a secret league winner. But I think it’s reasonable to consider placing him on the tail end of a roster. Particularly if we’re talking about a dynasty format. I think there’s a good chance Douglas will be one of the main pass catchers for the Patriots in 2024. Where it goes from there, we’ll see, but he looks pretty promising to me. Might be another Jakobi Meyers.
The following list shows my current top 80 receivers for dynasty leagues. I’m assuming PPR scoring, with teams holding the rights to players indefinitely. In these rankings skew towards younger players. Keenan Allen and Adam Thielen, for example, are great right now, but they’ll be 32 and 34 on opening day next year; it makes more sense long-term to pick a 22-year-old like George Pickens or Drake London.
I turn my attention to dynasty leagues each Saturday, rotating between the four notable positions. Rookies are tagged with black dots. To see my most recent rankings for other positions, use the “past issues” navigation both on this page.
Last week: Running backs.
Next week: Tight ends
| DYNASTY LEAGUE RECEIVERS | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rk | Tm | Player | Age |
| 1. | CIN | JaMarr Chase | 23.7 |
| 2. | MIN | Justin Jefferson | 24.4 |
| 3. | NYJ | Garrett Wilson | 23.3 |
| 4. | PHI | A.J. Brown | 26.3 |
| 5. | MIA | Tyreek Hill | 29.7 |
| 6. | DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 24.6 |
| 7. | DET | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 24.0 |
| 8. | IND | Michael Pittman | 26.1 |
| 9. | SF | Brandon Aiyuk | 25.6 |
| 10. | PIT | George Pickens | 22.7 |
| 11. | NO | Chris Olave | 23.3 |
| 12. | SEA | DK Metcalf | 25.9 |
| 13. | CHI | DJ Moore | 26.5 |
| 14. | PHI | DeVonta Smith | 25.0 |
| 15. | BUF | Stefon Diggs | 29.9 |
| 16. | BAL | • Zay Flowers | 23.1 |
| 17. | GB | Christian Watson | 24.5 |
| 18. | MIA | Jaylen Waddle | 24.9 |
| 19. | JAC | Christian Kirk | 26.9 |
| 20. | KC | • Rashee Rice | 23.5 |
| 21. | SF | Deebo Samuel | 27.8 |
| 22. | LAR | • Puka Nacua | 22.4 |
| 23. | ATL | Drake London | 22.3 |
| 24. | CIN | Tee Higgins | 24.8 |
| 25. | LAR | Cooper Kupp | 30.4 |
| 26. | LV | Davante Adams | 30.8 |
| 27. | HOU | Nico Collins | 24.6 |
| 28. | MIN | • Jordan Addison | 21.8 |
| 29. | PIT | Diontae Johnson | 27.3 |
| 30. | CLE | Amari Cooper | 29.4 |
| 31. | WAS | Terry McLaurin | 28.1 |
| 32. | DET | Jameson Williams | 22.6 |
| 33. | SEA | • Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.7 |
| 34. | JAC | Calvin Ridley | 28.9 |
| 35. | HOU | • Tank Dell | 24.0 |
| 36. | LV | Jakobi Meyers | 27.0 |
| 37. | LAC | Keenan Allen | 31.5 |
| 38. | ARI | Marquise Brown | 26.4 |
| 39. | BUF | Gabe Davis | 24.7 |
| 40. | TB | Mike Evans | 30.2 |
| 41. | GB | Romeo Doubs | 23.5 |
| 42. | TB | Chris Godwin | 27.7 |
| 43. | CLE | Elijah Moore | 23.6 |
| 44. | WAS | Jahan Dotson | 23.6 |
| 45. | LAC | Josh Palmer | 24.1 |
| 46. | DEN | Courtland Sutton | 28.0 |
| 47. | CAR | Adam Thielen | 33.2 |
| 48. | NYG | • Jalin Hyatt | 22.1 |
| 49. | IND | • Josh Downs | 22.2 |
| 50. | LAC | Mike Williams | 29.1 |
| 51. | DEN | Jerry Jeudy | 24.5 |
| 52. | GB | • Jayden Reed | 23.5 |
| 53. | NE | Kendrick Bourne | 28.2 |
| 54. | NO | Rashid Shaheed | 25.2 |
| 55. | SEA | Tyler Lockett | 31.1 |
| 56. | TEN | DeAndre Hopkins | 31.4 |
| 57. | NE | • Demario Douglas | 22.9 |
| 58. | BUF | Khalil Shakir | 23.7 |
| 59. | TEN | Treylon Burks | 23.6 |
| 60. | DEN | • Marvin Mims | 21.6 |
| 61. | DAL | Brandin Cooks | 30.1 |
| 62. | WAS | Curtis Samuel | 27.2 |
| 63. | MIN | K.J. Osborn | 26.4 |
| 64. | LAC | • Quentin Johnston | 22.1 |
| 65. | JAC | Zay Jones | 28.6 |
| 66. | ARI | • Michael Wilson | 23.7 |
| 67. | CAR | DJ Chark | 27.1 |
| 68. | NO | Michael Thomas | 30.7 |
| 69. | KC | Kadarius Toney | 24.8 |
| 70. | BAL | Odell Beckham | 31.0 |
| 71. | TB | • Trey Palmer | 22.6 |
| 72. | KC | Skyy Moore | 23.1 |
| 73. | NYG | Wan'Dale Robinson | 22.8 |
| 74. | LAR | Tutu Atwell | 24.1 |
| 75. | BAL | Rashod Bateman | 23.9 |
| 76. | DAL | Michael Gallup | 27.6 |
| 77. | CHI | Darnell Mooney | 26.0 |
| 78. | DET | Josh Reynolds | 28.7 |
| 79. | CIN | Tyler Boyd | 29.0 |
| 80. | IND | Alec Pierce | 23.5 |
—Ian Allan