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Factoid

Fifth-round quarterbacks

Expectations for Hall, Tune

There will reportedly be a couple of fifth-round rookie quarterbacks starting this week. Maybe even three, if the Browns decide they've seen enough of P.J. Walker. It's a little unusual.

In general when teams draft a quarterback in the fifth round, they're looking for a potential backup, at best. And as rookies, these guys are often the No. 3 quarterbacks, unlikely to even be active for games. That was certainly the case for Jaren Hall in Minnesota and Clayton Tune in Arizona.

But Hall is starting for the Vikings this week, with Kirk Cousins out for the year and Nick Mullens (back) on IR for at least one more week. Minnesota traded for Joshua Dobbs (from Arizona, coincidentally enough), and he should be the backup, perhaps getting on the field if Hall really struggles. But probably Hall, and media reports say the Cardinals are starting Tune over Kyler Murray, coming off knee surgery.

The Browns could theoretically go with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, although he was a disaster in his one start this year. But that was against a really good Baltimore defense, that can make a lot of quarterbacks look bad.

So at least two and possibly three fifth-round rookies in the lineup this week. How might they fare?

Using the search tools at pro-football-reference.com, I found 8 fifth-rounders starting games in the past decade -- some rookies, some in their second or third seasons but seeing the field in an actual NFL game for the first time. As you might expect, the results were mostly bad, with one exception.

Mike White, for sure, is a success story. When he got on the field for the Jets a couple of years ago, he had a 405-yard, 3-TD game. He flopped in his next full game, against Buffalo, but White proved it can be done.

Sam Howell, also, was solid enough in Week 18 a year ago that Washington went with him as its starter this year.

The rest of those fifth-rounders, well, results haven't been great. Jake Fromm, anyone? Table shows each player's first two games, if they started that many (I didn't want to include a half-season of Brett Hundley).

FIFTH-ROUND QBS DEBUTING, 2013-2023
PlayerDraftOppResultCmpAttYdsTDIntSk
D. Thompson-Robinson, Cle.2023Balt.L 3-281936121034
Sam Howell, Was.2022Dal.W 26-61119169113
Jake Fromm, NYG2020Was.L 7-221531103123
Jake Fromm, NYG2020at Phi.L 10-3461725012
Mike White, NYJ2018Buf.L 17-452444251041
Mike White, NYJ2018Cin.W 34-313745405322
Nathan Peterman, Buf.2017Ind.W 13-7 (OT)51057100
Nathan Peterman, Buf.2017at LACL 24-5461466050
Kevin Hogan, Cle.2016at Hou.L 17-332037140134
Brett Hundley, G.B.2015Det.L 17-302638245003
Brett Hundley, G.B.2015N.O.L 17-26122587011
A.J. McCarron, Cin.2014at Den.L 17-20 (OT)2235200102
A.J. McCarron, Cin.2014at S.F.W 24-141521192104

Most notably, for those who enjoy streaming defenses, note that about half of the games involved that quarterback throwing multiple interceptions, and half involved him taking 3-4 sacks. Cleveland and Atlanta appear higher in the rankings than usual, facing Tune and Hall.

I'll note here that I was skeptical about Will Levis last week, and he threw 4 touchdowns. Levis was a much more highly regarded prospect, but rookies debuting with good numbers certainly can happen. But given a choice of starting one of these quarterbacks or the defense facing them, I'll take the defense.

--Andy Richardson

Fantasy Index