Factoid

November 12, 2023

How low can you go?

Jets-Raiders opens with over-under of 34.5 points

Jets-Raiders play tonight, and when I was writing up that capsule, the money line caught my attention. The over-under (for total points scored) opened at 34.5 points (on DraftKings), and I can’t remember the last time I saw a number that low.

It’s since moved up to 36, but that’s still a remarkably low number. It’s a reflection of neither team having a viable quarterback and both teams being a lot better defensively. And defenses in general have been running ahead of offenses this season. For Week 10, there are five other over-under totals under 40: Panthers-Bears (38.5), Browns-Ravens (38), Packers-Steelers (39), Titans-Bucs (39) and Giants-Cowboys (38.5).

I poked around with some numbers on low over-under totals. I was surprised to see that for over-under of 37 points in the last 10 years, two thirds of those games have finished “under”. I think that means that when a number gets pushed down to something like 34.5, it eventually reaches a point where a good portion of gamblers just get the gut feeling that it’s too low.

There have been 36 such games in the last 10 years. Two of them have pushed, 10 have gone over, and 24 have finished with even fewer points than the low total. Collectively, those 36 games averaged 33.3 points, 3 points below what was set as the number.

I would guess with these six low over-under games for Week 10, they’re in general more likely to finish under than over.

GAMES WITH OVER/UNDERS OF 37 AND LOWER
Year	Wk	Winner	Loser	Score	O/U	Total	OU Result
2014	16	Seattle	at Arizona	35-6	36	41	• over
2017	11	Jacksonville	at Cleveland	19-7	37	26	under
2017	14	at Buffalo	Indianapolis	13-7	36.5	20	under
2017	16	at Chicago	Cleveland	20-3	37	23	under
2018	12	at Buffalo	Jacksonville	24-21	36.5	45	• over
2018	14	NY Jets	at Buffalo	27-23	37	50	• over
2018	15	Washington	at Jacksonville	16-13	36.5	29	under
2018	17	Chicago	at Minnesota	21-19	36.5	40	• over
2019	4	Jacksonville	at Denver	26-24	37	50	• over
2019	7	New Orleans	at Chicago	36-25	37	61	• over
2019	9	at Buffalo	Washington	24-9	37	33	under
2019	12	at Buffalo	Denver	20-3	37	23	under
2019	15	Buffalo	at Pittsburgh	17-10	37	27	under
2019	16	at NY Jets	Pittsburgh	16-10	36.5	26	under
2019	17	NY Jets	at Buffalo	13-6	37	19	under
2019	17	at Baltimore	Pittsburgh	28-10	35	38	• over
2020	12	New Orleans	at Denver	31-3	36.5	34	under
2021	17	at Chicago	NY Giants	29-3	36.5	32	under
2021	18	at Cleveland	Cincinnati	21-16	37	37	push
2022	7	NY Jets	at Denver	16-9	37	25	under
2022	12	at Carolina	Denver	23-10	36	33	under
2022	14	Baltimore	at Pittsburgh	16-14	36.5	30	under
2022	15	at Denver	Arizona	24-15	36.5	39	• over
2022	16	at Baltimore	Atlanta	17-9	34.5	26	under
2022	16	Houston	at Tennessee	19-14	35.5	33	under
2022	16	Jacksonville	at NY Jets	19-3	37	22	under
2022	16	New Orleans	at Cleveland	17-10	32	27	under
2022	16	at LA Rams	Denver	51-14	36.5	65	• over
2022	17	Pittsburgh	at Baltimore	16-13	35	29	under
2022	18	at Miami	NY Jets	11-6	37	17	under
2023	3	New England	at NY Jets	15-10	36	25	under
2023	6	at Cleveland	San Francisco	19-17	36	36	push
2023	7	Atlanta	at Tampa Bay	16-13	37	29	under
2023	8	NY Jets	at NY Giants	13-10	36	23	under
2023	8	at Tennessee	Atlanta	28-23	36	51	• over
2023	9	at Pittsburgh	Tennessee	20-16	37	36	under
2023	10	NY Jets	at Las Vegas	?-?	36	?	?

A couple of additional observations from the chart above.

• There are 37 games listed, but only one from the 2013-2016 seasons. We’re seeing more low over-under numbers.

• Most of the low over-under numbers come from later in the year. In the chart above, only three of the games come from Weeks 1-6, but 34 of the 37 come from Weeks 7-18. Week 16 is the most popular week, with eight of these games with over-unders of 37 and below. I think this is probably fueled primarily by quarterback injuries. You plug in a quarterback like Tommy DeVito (pictured) or Clayton Tune, and the offense is going to feel it. (And weather probably plays some role as well.)

—Ian Allan

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