Dynasty Leagues

November 18, 2023

Pint-sized playmakers

Undersized rookie running backs piling up long runs

Keaton Mitchell keeps busting loose for long runs. At what point do we start thinking of this guy as pretty similar to Jahmyr Gibbs and DeVon Achane? They’re all small, and they’re all really explosive.

Unlike those more heralded backs, Mitchell wasn’t even drafted. But his measurables are pretty similar. He ran a 4.37 at the combine – a hundredth slower than Gibbs and 5 hundredths slower than Achane. But his 10-yard split was faster than either of those guys, and he jumped over 4 inches higher in the vertical. They’re all twitchy athletes.

Mitchell was productive at East Carolina, running for 1,452 yards his final season while average 7.2 per attempt.

No getting around the size. At 5-foot-8 and 186 pounds, Mitchell is small. But Achane is listed only 2 pounds heavier at the same height. Gibbs is an inch taller and 13 pounds heavier.

The Ravens started using Mitchell in Week 9, and he’s had runs of 60, 40, 39 and 21 yards in his first three games. He’s also picked up 32 yards on a reception. Against Cincinnati there was a play where he slipped in the hole – looked like he was going to pop it outside for a long gain.

The below chart shows all running backs with at least 50 carries or at least 3 runs of 20-plus yards. Only seven backs have produced gains of 20-plus yards on over 5 percent of their carries, and four of them are undersized rookies (including Jaleel McLaughlin from Denver).

PERCENTAGE OF 20-YARD RUNS
Player	Att	20+	Pct
Keaton Mitchell, Balt.	20	4	20.0%
• DeVon Achane, Mia.	38	6	15.8%
• Jaleel McLaughlin, Den.	44	4	9.1%
James Conner, Ari.	84	5	6.0%
Khalil Herbert, Chi.	51	3	5.9%
• Jahmyr Gibbs, Det.	90	5	5.6%
Raheem Mostert, Mia.	109	6	5.5%
Zack Moss, Ind.	133	6	4.5%
Najee Harris, Pitt.	116	5	4.3%
Latavius Murray, Buff.	51	2	3.9%
Breece Hall, NYJ	107	4	3.7%
Kenneth Walker, Sea.	145	5	3.4%
James Cook, Buff.	120	4	3.3%
Jerome Ford, Cle.	124	4	3.2%
Bijan Robinson, Atl.	125	4	3.2%
Kyren Williams, LAR	97	3	3.1%
Gus Edwards, Balt.	133	4	3.0%
D'Andre Swift, Phil.	135	4	3.0%
Saquon Barkley, NYG	139	4	2.9%
Jaylen Warren, Pitt.	71	2	2.8%
Joshua Kelley, LAC	79	2	2.5%
Travis Etienne, Jac.	160	4	2.5%
Brian Robinson, Was.	121	3	2.5%
Jonathan Taylor, Ind.	85	2	2.4%
Tony Pollard, Dall.	135	3	2.2%
Austin Ekeler, LAC	92	2	2.2%
Chuba Hubbard, Car.	94	2	2.1%
Derrick Henry, Ten.	148	3	2.0%
Christian McCaffrey, S.F.	153	3	2.0%
David Montgomery, Det.	106	2	1.9%
Justice Hill, Balt.	61	1	1.6%
Isiah Pacheco, K.C.	124	2	1.6%
Joe Mixon, Cin.	153	2	1.3%
D'Onta Foreman, Chi.	86	1	1.2%
Devin Singletary, Hou.	92	1	1.1%
Josh Jacobs, L.V.	186	2	1.1%
AJ Dillon, G.B.	103	1	1.0%
Javonte Williams, Den.	111	1	0.9%
Tyler Allgeier, Atl.	125	1	0.8%
Rhamondre Stevenson, N.E.	126	1	0.8%
Kenneth Gainwell, Phil.	54	0	0.0%
Cam Akers, 2 tms	60	0	0.0%
Aaron Jones, G.B.	62	0	0.0%
Kareem Hunt, Cle.	70	0	0.0%
Miles Sanders, Car.	71	0	0.0%
Ezekiel Elliott, N.E.	86	0	0.0%
Alvin Kamara, N.O.	104	0	0.0%
Dameon Pierce, Hou.	109	0	0.0%
Alexander Mattison, Min.	130	0	0.0%
Rachaad White, T.B.	132	0	0.0%

All three of these rookies are in remarkably good situations. Lions, Dolphins, Ravens – these are teams that ran really run the ball. These are offenses that can make average running backs look good, and good backs look great.

For dynasty purposes, these are all running backs I think will be making an impact next year and in future seasons.

Below see my revised list of running backs for dynasty leagues (operating under the assumption that teams get to control the rights to players indefinitely). I’m assuming PPR scoring. Rookies tagged with black dots.

When you see our in-season rankings during the week, they’re created by carefully projecting performance in each of the stat categories – touchdowns, rushing yards, receiving yards, etc. You estimate what you think a player would average in a typical week, then multiply those projections by the number of games he’s going to play (if a player has an injury risk or a suspension, you account for that by projecting him to play fewer games).

The rankings below aren’t as carefully formulated. For these ones, I’m just going by gut. I’ve got a list of all of the running backs in front of me, and I spend about an hour moving guys up and down until it feels right. And with the season two thirds over, I’m trying to avoid make picks that will look awful next August. Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Raheem Mostert and Aaron Jones, for example, are all older guys – where might they be heading into 2024? Think of Dalvin Cook, who a year ago was considered a top-10 back a year ago at this time but now is more of a nothingburger.

Anyway, it’s a stab at it. Feel free to weigh in the comments section on the guys where you think I’m way off.

I turn my attention to dynasty leagues each Saturday during the season, rotating between the four notable positions.

Last week: Quarterbacks.

Next week: wide receivers.

DYNASTY RUNNING BACKS
Rk	Tm	Player	Age
1.	ATL	• Bijan Robinson	21.8
2.	NYJ	Breece Hall	22.5
3.	SF	Christian McCaffrey	27.4
4.	JAC	Travis Etienne	24.8
5.	IND	Jonathan Taylor	24.8
6.	DET	• Jahmyr Gibbs	21.7
7.	LV	Josh Jacobs	25.8
8.	LAC	Austin Ekeler	28.5
9.	NYG	Saquon Barkley	26.8
10.	KC	Isiah Pacheco	24.7
11.	DEN	Javonte Williams	23.6
12.	SEA	Kenneth Walker	23.1
13.	MIA	• DeVon Achane	22.1
14.	WAS	Brian Robinson	24.7
15.	PHI	D'Andre Swift	24.8
16.	DET	David Montgomery	26.4
17.	DAL	Tony Pollard	26.6
18.	LAR	Kyren Williams	23.2
19.	NE	Rhamondre Stevenson	25.7
20.	PIT	Najee Harris	25.7
21.	CIN	Joe Mixon	27.3
22.	TB	Rachaad White	24.8
23.	CLE	Nick Chubb	27.9
24.	TEN	• Tyjae Spears	22.4
25.	ARI	James Conner	28.5
26.	PIT	Jaylen Warren	25.0
27.	BUF	James Cook	24.1
28.	BAL	• Keaton Mitchell	21.8
29.	SEA	• Zach Charbonnet	22.9
30.	TEN	Derrick Henry	29.9
31.	CAR	Chuba Hubbard	24.4
32.	HOU	Dameon Pierce	23.7
33.	CHI	• Roschon Johnson	22.8
34.	NO	Alvin Kamara	28.3
35.	GB	Aaron Jones	29.0
36.	MIA	Raheem Mostert	31.6
37.	BAL	Gus Edwards	28.6
38.	CAR	Miles Sanders	26.6
39.	HOU	Devin Singletary	26.2
40.	MIN	Alexander Mattison	25.4
41.	CHI	Khalil Herbert	25.6
42.	ATL	Tyler Allgeier	23.6
43.	JAC	• Tank Bigsby	22.2
44.	CLE	Jerome Ford	24.2
45.	IND	Zack Moss	25.9
46.	NYJ	• Israel Abanikanda	21.1
47.	NO	• Kendre Miller	21.4
48.	WAS	• Chris Rodriguez	23.1
49.	CLE	Kareem Hunt	28.3
50.	BAL	J.K. Dobbins	24.9
51.	SF	Elijah Mitchell	25.5
52.	CHI	D'Onta Foreman	27.6
53.	DEN	• Jaleel McLaughlin	23.2
54.	LAC	Joshua Kelley	26.0
55.	GB	AJ Dillon	25.5
56.	WAS	Antonio Gibson	25.4
57.	SF	Jordan Mason	24.5
58.	MIN	Ty Chandler	25.5
59.	PHI	Kenneth Gainwell	24.7
60.	DAL	Rico Dowdle	25.4
61.	LV	Zamir White	24.2
62.	LAC	• Elijah Dotson	24.8
63.	KC	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	24.6
64.	GB	• Emanuel Wilson	24.5
65.	NYJ	Dalvin Cook	28.3
66.	CLE	Pierre Strong	24.9
67.	ARI	Keontay Ingram	24.1
68.	MIA	Salvon Ahmed	24.9
69.	CIN	Trayveon Williams	26.1
70.	KC	Jerick McKinnon	31.5
71.	NYG	• Eric Gray	24.0
72.	CIN	• Chase Brown	23.7
73.	BUF	Damien Harris	26.8
74.	BAL	Justice Hill	26.0
75.	JAC	D'Ernest Johnson	27.7
76.	SEA	• Kenny McIntosh	23.7
77.	DAL	• Deuce Vaughn	22.0
78.	MIA	Jeff Wilson	28.0
79.	BUF	Latavius Murray	33.8
80.	NO	Jamaal Williams	28.6

—Ian Allan

Older

Newer

My dad and I have subscribed since I was 10 years old and I am 38 now. We canʼt go a season without it.

Trevor T. Sparks, Nev.

You guys are great - if you look at my account, I believe I have been a subscriber for around 20 years! Unfortunately, a few years ago a couple of other owners found the same publication (they didnʼt get it from me; I always disguised the sheets while at the draft!)

Michael B. St. Charles, Mo.

I have purchased your magazine since my first fantasy football season ever 12 season ago and love the insight you offer. Thank you for the great service, I look forward to many many more years of enjoying your subscription!

Paul L. Mequon, Wisc.

The magazine is exactly the same as last year, which is perfect. Boys, we have a chance to repeat in the 33rd year of the NWFFL. I am counting on you to help pull it off. FI has been a league staple for decades, one of my guys has every edition. A few years ago, we devised a clever way to use one of your lists to draft a team for an absent owner, the sob won it all. We love you guys. Peace!

Glenn S. Olympia, Wash.

Hi, received my copy over the weekend and I think it's the best work you guys have done (I've been reading your publication since 1988). The writing is terrific and full of good humor, along with more substance than anybody else has.

Keep up the great work!

John L. Madison, Wis.

I'm in 3 leagues. All have different formats. I bought one magazine, the same magazine for 30 years. I keep the Fantasy Football Index handy and refer back to your preseason reports throughout the season to help me evaluate roster moves in every format. This week I'm in two championship games and a semifinal. Did I tell you I'm in three leagues? Three playoff teams! Best fantasy season ever. Thank you.

Henry G. Bartlett, Ill.

Thanks for another great season of Fantasy Index, you avoid group-think and form your own opinions, and always have. I've been using your products since 1992, and you've always been a cut above the rest.

Rob D. Wellington, Fla.

Thank you for all you do and what your team does. Been playing since mid 90s and your mag has been there every year. The mailer I get with the questions on the front is what I consider the beginning of the fantasy football season. Get the updates and listen to the podcast. I write a weekly column for the newspaper I work at and always appreciate the work you put in to produce as much as you do. Just a fan saying thanks and will keep up with you and the site through the season.

Jason C. Tulsa, Okla.

A little feedback from a long time customer.

Our fantasy pool is entering its 25^th year and I have used multiple books and on-line tools over the years.

I have locked on to Fantasy Index as my go to for the last 5 years and have won the pool 3 of those years and finished no lower than 4^th.

Interesting to see how much more accurate you were at the end of the year compared to other books my competitors used.

Having it in a format that allows me to work the forecasts to match our scoring system and then receive updates as the season approaches is invaluable. Whoever your sources are for the forecasts are the best. Hang on to them. Thanks for the help!!

Peter M. London, Ontario, Canada

I did receive the updated draft ranking from you guys in plenty of time for my draft that night. My draft report gave me an A+ and predicted me to go 14-0 and win my league! I just want to say thank you for the excellent customer service that your company provided me. When I first started playing fantasy football more than 15 years ago, I used to buy as many fantasy football magazines as I could find. It wasnʼt long before I only purchased Fantasy Football Index each year. It is by far the most comprehensive, well written fantasy football magazine on the market. Also, I almost always rank in the top three in my fantasy football leagues, and won my league last year. Thank you to you and all of your great team. You have a customer for life!

Trey C. Fort Worth, Texas

Thank you for all the updates etc. In the last 14 or 15 years, we have placed in the top three 9 times winning it all 4 times. I have been a customer of yours for many years. Our success is partially due to luck, but I think your magazine with all of the good stuff has been a real contributing factor. Keep up the good work. Will be a customer until the time I can't read anymore.

Richard M. Imperial, Neb.

I just wanted to send everyone at Fantasy Football Index an apology. Since 2003 (Ricky Williams cover), I've protected my source of information and have gone out of my way to hide Fantasy Football Index from my leagues prying eyes. I've won championships in leagues and money playing Daily Fantasy and your Training Camp updates are the highlight of my summer and a recurring order for me every single season. I just wanted to Thank You and everyone there (customer service, the writers, janitors, secretaries and assistants) for your hard work and dedication.

You are appreciated and valued part of my Fantasy Football Operations department even if i never speak your name in fear that others in my league will discover the wondrous bounty of knowledge contained in your pages…

From the bottom of a champion's heart,

Dave M. Elma, N.Y.

I wanted to send a quick note and thank you for your great magazine! The information you provide, has allowed me to win my league 3 years in a row!

The payoff in the league is not bad, six hundred dollars to be exact, but it is those all important bragging rights that really make it fun!

I epically enjoyed this last issue because you included all the covers for the past 30 years, I did not buy 87, and 88, but all the rest I have purchased.

All I have to do is read and then plug and play, thanks again for doing all the work so I don't have to, except for cash the check of course! Lol.

I will be continue to purchase your magazine, and recommend it to others, although I don't like to give away my secret!

I typically don't write emails to magazines, but after 3 wins in a row, and others which I did not list, I felt like you would like to know.

Thanks again to you and your staff,

Darrell W. Holt, Mich.

I wanted to let you know I finished my season going 16-0 winning my league, breaking every record in our 19 year history along the way. A special thank you to FI for the insightful knowledge as it provided me much help along the way.

Ryan M. Lynnwood, Wash.

You guys do a great job. I got laughed at by a few people at the draft but they're not laughing now. I'm leading the league in record (8-1) and PF thus far.

John W. Aylett, Va.

And a side note… we've got a re-draft 16-team, 20 players drafted league (drafting water boys by the 17^th round) that I've won 2 years in a row. Nobody's ever done that in 21 years… using your cheat sheet. it's an old school league that used to draft out of piles of magazines.

Thanks again,

Todd S. Grand Junction, Colo.

This is my ninth year competing with my two very savey adult children and their 11 regulars to make it a 14 team draft with a $200 bid limit. Your SuperFanatic package has put me into the 6 team play- offs 4 out of the 8 years and there is no way I could compete with these guys without my cheat sheets! They still have no idea how I can be so lucky every year :-) Cheaters do prosper!!!!

Robert A.

I wanted to thank you for such an amazing product and your customer service. I ordered the wrong date for my update and called to correct the mistake. Your customer service person was very kind, helpful and took care of the issue immediately.

I have used your product for the past 18 years or so… Every now and then I will be tempted and look at what other magazines have to offer, quickly realizing no one comes close.

In addition to the magazine, I started buying the weekly updates years ago when my dad taught me a lesson. The draft came and dad was sitting in the 12 hole for his pick. He told me he felt very comfortable about who he was going to select but would not tell me who his prized gem was to be. I was doubtful. The pick? Priest Holmes (his first dynamite year). I remember telling my dad, "that is a decent pick but they plan to pull him at the goal line." Ever the teacher, dad explained he had purchased the Fantasy Football Index update and read Holmes would get the goal line carries. "Update?", I asked. That was 2002 and Holmes had 21 rushing TDs and Dad won the title! Lesson learned.

By the way, I have made the title game for the last 5 years in a row. Thanks for the detailed, hard work and an great product!

David R. Queen Creek, Ariz.

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Dynasty Leagues

Pint-sized playmakers

Today's Trivia

Mailbag

Member updates

Follow

Why Choose Fantasy Index?

Quick hits

Your Stuff

In-Depth

Resources

All Products

Help & Support

Fantasy Index

Customer Service

Customer Service