This looks like a going-out-of-business game for the Chargers.
If they lose this one (and they likely will) that would drop them to 4-7, with embattled Brandon Staley perhaps or probably getting the hook. He’s been around for three years, and he’s been unable to put together a good enough defense. Regardless, this is a tough matchup for Los Angeles’ offense, with the Ravens having allowed only 13 touchdowns, 3 fewer than any other team. The Chargers have scored 29 touchdowns (just short of 3 per week), but they’ve scored only 2 in half of their games, and that’s likely what we’re getting here.
Did you see Austin Ekeler on his 37-yard run on Sunday? It was surprising how quickly he was run down. He’s 28, and he’s definitely lost some speed. There were will be two other undersized backs who went undrafted at Sunday’s game who are a lot faster. Elijah Dotson (who ripped off a couple of long runs in the preseason) and Keaton Mitchell both have a lot more burst. That one play underscores that the Chargers need to be thinking about moving Ekeler into more of a third-down role next year, with somebody new coming in to be their main back. But for the here and now, it will be Ekeler starting, and probably not doing a whole bunch against what’s an above-average run defense.
By the numbers, the Ravens rank 13th against the run, but they’re probably more of a top-10 group. Since returning from his ankle injury, Ekeler has averaged only 47 rushing yards. If not for the 37-yard run against the Packers, he would have averaged not more than 3.5 yards per attempt in any of those games. If we go back to Ekeler’s rookie season, he averaged at least 7 yards per attempt in half of his games. Different guy. And they’re not using Ekeler in the passing game like they have in the past. He caught 7 balls against the Bears but just 13 catches in his last five other games.
Justin Herbert is probably one of the top 5 quarterbacks on the planet, but he looks unlikely to shine in this one. He’s had three big games this year, and they’ve all come against porous pass defenses – Vikings, Bears, Lions. He averaged 342 yards against those teams, with 10 TDs and 1 interception. But he’s averaged only 226 passing yards in his other seven games, with 9 TDs. The Ravens look far more likely to land him in that second bucket. They’ve been awfully tough against the pass, allowing only 221 yards per week, and with only 9 TDs in 10 games. They haven’t faced many big-time passers, but they’re good. And they got the better of Herbert in a blowout two years ago, limiting him to 195 yards and a touchdown. Both teams had different coordinators at that time, but we’re thinking Herbert looks more average than awesome this week.
With the Chargers likely to have a lesser passing game than usual, we’re lowering our projection for Keenan Allen. But with a player of his ilk, he’s tough to ever actually pull from a lineup. He’s averaging 8.3 catches for 101 yards, with 7 TDs (over a third of the team’s total). Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman and Amari Cooper have some similarities to Allen, and they were able to combine for 28 catches in three games against this defense.
The Chargers are starting their first-round pick, Quentin Johnston, but he looks like a wait-til-next-year guy. They’ve been playing without Joshua Palmer for three games, giving Johnston every opportunity to thrive, but he’s caught only 8 passes for 69 yards and a touchdown in those three games. He had a pivotal drop at the end of the Green Bay game. Jalen Guyton should be their other starter-type guy, but he’s caught only 4 passes for 41 yards in his two games in that role.
The tight end position will look more compelling if Gerald Everett sits out again. He has a chest injury that kept him out of practice all of last week. If he’s out again, it would elevate Donald Parham into a more prominent role. Everett has missed two games, and Parham has caught 4 passes in both of them, with a touchdown. Parham has caught only 11 passes in his other eight games. If Everett is healthy, it will be more of a committee situation (Everett has caught 21 passes and 2 TDs in his eight games). Regardless, a lesser situation against a good defense.
Some may talk themselves into using Cameron Dicker, noticing that Baltimore has allowed almost twice as many field goal attempts (25) as touchdowns (13). The Ravens are allowing a below-average 8.1 points against the position. But we’re not in the Dicker Picker group. If things go south for the Chargers in this game like we fear they might, he could sputter his way to bottom-10 production.
Some of the numbers for the Chargers Defense look good. They’re in the top 10 in sacks and fumble recoveries, and they’ve scored on a punt return. But this looks like a team that’s falling apart, and one that just put one of its high-priced defenders (Joey Bosa) on IR. The Ravens have lost as many fumbles as anyone (9) but Lamar Jackson has thrown only 5 interceptions.
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 12 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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