That was a pivotal win for the Packers. It pulls them back to 6-6, and their remaining schedule indicates they have an inside track on a playoff berth – it will be a surprise if they don’t get in.
Green Bay has made it through the meat of its schedule. Its last five are against the Giants, Bucs, Panthers, Vikings and Bears. They’ll need to win only three of those games, but they look more likely to win four or even all five.
Combined, those opponents have a win-loss record of 20-40. Even if we set aside 1-11 Carolina, those other four teams are currently 19-29. Jordan Love, I’m thinking, will be starting a playoff game.
Two other teams will play their final five games against opponents who collectively have won fewer than 40 percent of their games: the Falcons and Saints. I’m not sure that either of them are any good, but their remaining opponents are 22-38, and somebody needs to win the NFC South.
Teams with difficult closing schedules include the Ravens, Cowboys, Titans and Giants.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (Wks 14-18) | |||
---|---|---|---|
Team | W | L | Pct |
Green Bay | 20 | 40 | .333 |
Atlanta | 22 | 38 | .367 |
New Orleans | 22 | 38 | .367 |
Kansas City | 24 | 36 | .400 |
Philadelphia | 26 | 35 | .426 |
Denver | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Tampa Bay | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Houston | 26 | 34 | .433 |
Jacksonville | 26 | 34 | .433 |
San Francisco | 28 | 34 | .452 |
NY Jets | 29 | 32 | .475 |
Cleveland | 29 | 31 | .483 |
Pittsburgh | 30 | 30 | .500 |
Carolina | 30 | 30 | .500 |
Chicago | 31 | 30 | .508 |
LA Rams | 31 | 30 | .508 |
Detroit | 31 | 29 | .517 |
LA Chargers | 31 | 29 | .517 |
Indianapolis | 31 | 29 | .517 |
New England | 31 | 29 | .517 |
Las Vegas | 32 | 28 | .533 |
Miami | 32 | 28 | .533 |
Seattle | 33 | 28 | .541 |
Buffalo | 33 | 27 | .550 |
Minnesota | 35 | 25 | .583 |
Cincinnati | 35 | 25 | .583 |
Washington | 28 | 20 | .583 |
Arizona | 29 | 19 | .604 |
NY Giants | 37 | 23 | .617 |
Tennessee | 37 | 23 | .617 |
Dallas | 38 | 23 | .623 |
Baltimore | 39 | 21 | .650 |
If we’re going with points rather than wins, the Cowboys, Falcons and 49ers project to play the most favorable remaining schedules. (The Cowboys are interesting in that they’re the 2nd-toughest by win-loss percentage, but number one via points, with a couple of possible shootouts against Philadelphia and Miami remaining).
The Dolphins and Commanders have the hardest remaining schedules, with opponents currently allowing only 19 points per game.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, POINTS (Wks 14-18) | |
---|---|
Team | Avg |
Dallas | 23.9 |
Atlanta | 23.5 |
San Francisco | 23.3 |
Philadelphia | 23.3 |
Green Bay | 23.1 |
NY Jets | 23.0 |
Minnesota | 22.4 |
New Orleans | 22.4 |
Arizona | 22.1 |
Cleveland | 22.1 |
NY Giants | 22.1 |
Chicago | 22.0 |
Tennessee | 21.9 |
Denver | 21.9 |
Tampa Bay | 21.8 |
Las Vegas | 21.8 |
Houston | 21.8 |
Pittsburgh | 21.7 |
Detroit | 21.7 |
LA Chargers | 21.6 |
LA Rams | 21.5 |
Kansas City | 21.1 |
Seattle | 21.1 |
Indianapolis | 20.8 |
Jacksonville | 20.8 |
Carolina | 20.7 |
Cincinnati | 20.4 |
New England | 20.3 |
Buffalo | 20.1 |
Baltimore | 19.9 |
Washington | 19.0 |
Miami | 19.0 |
—Ian Allan