When it’s a win-or-go-home situation, you need to pull out all the stops. That strategy includes utilizing every single piece of data you can, and using every situation to your advantage when possible. Most weeks it’s the same old, same old. But this isn’t a normal week, and if you want that championship, you could probably use something to provide insight into making better decisions.
Luckily, the NFL is providing you exactly that in week 16.
If you needed any more reasons to be happy around the holidays, the schedule-makers have given your fantasy team a sneak peek into how your upcoming contest will go. You’ll have a Thursday game featuring the Saints and Rams, and both sides have players that might be starting in your matchup. It’s helpful when the Thursday game can give you some early scores, and many playoff games will see teams with an early lead or deficit.
But wait; there’s more. Two Saturday games might add even more point totals to the final results. The Bengals and Steelers might not be full of fantasy starters, especially with Ja’Marr Chase’s injury, but the Bills and Chargers could have a few. Put them all together and you’ll get the results of three games before the Sunday contests kick off. When making important decisions, more knowledge is better. Then, after that, you have the Monday night game.
Well, actually, more than one. I know the league has had two games going a couple times this season, but this Monday is different: There are three games, and they feature teams like San Francisco, Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Kansas City. Both teams sitting with the top seed in their conference are playing (each other), Philadelphia has already clinched a playoff spot and Kansas City isn’t far behind. These are good teams, and probably have more than a dozen starter-worthy fantasy players, not counting kickers and defenses. Good chance some of them are involved in your matchup.
So what is the schedule really giving you? Data. Rather than have most players all going at once, you’ll have an early idea of how your team is doing and what it’s facing. And while we’ve all seen early leads vanish, and early deficits made up by the end of the week, you can make some decisions based on what you’ve seen. If you thought you’d be able to settle for a high floor but low ceiling from a flex spot, that might not look so smart when you’re way behind. Likewise, you might not need to take unnecessary risks if your early players overperform. You don’t need to change your lineups based solely on early results, but it’s good to factor in that information. And hopefully you won’t have to deal with any injuries, but if you do, it’s better to know before most of your lineup is playing.
This week’s schedule can also help you with some overall roster decisions. If you’ve decided not to play a guy in a Saturday game, and this is the championship, you might as well drop them before gametime and pick up an option you could use on Sunday or Monday. Better to have usable backups than a guy whose spot is locked because they played a couple days ago. You probably won’t need the pickup, but it won’t hurt to have them on your roster, and it keeps them away from your opponent. No risk, and the potential for at least some reward, is a good deal in any week of the season.
Oh, and if you’re in an ancient league that uses bench spot points as a tiebreaker, maybe pick up guys who might put you over the top in that rare instance. Better to have them on your roster than a guy who offered nothing but weak depth.
Of course, the schedule will also force you to make some early decisions. If you’re deciding between two players, you might not have until Sunday morning to choose which one goes in your lineup. And in many leagues, you can’t drop someone after their game has started, so you’d have to do it beforehand if you want to take advantage of my previous advice. There’s a chance you’ll be backed into a corner as far as who you’re starting, and if there’s a gametime decision looming, it could put you in a tough spot. But the same can be said for your opponent, and there’s another advantage there: You’re thinking about this right now, and they might not be thinking about it at all. They might be so busy with other things this coming week, they don’t even know Saturday games are happening. It’s unlikely considering they have a playoff team, but you never know. It would make a nice early gift to you, right?
At this point in the season, your opponent probably has a great team; maybe better than yours. You’ll need to take advantage of whatever you can to try and win, and the schedule could be something that assists you this week. I hope that’s the case. Give it some extra thought, good luck with your matchups, and have a great holiday.
Do you like early returns to see how your team is doing? Does it make things harder when planning lineups, or do you like the extra variables? Share your thoughts below.