The Falcons have one of the most disappointing offenses, with all of those high draft picks failing to lift them higher than 26th in scoring.
The offense has scored 25 touchdowns (1.8 per week). But they’ve got a good chance of putting up above-average numbers this week. They’re at home, and they’re facing an opponent that’s allowed more points than all but four teams.
The Indianapolis defense has allowed 36 touchdowns (2.6 per week). The Falcons will definitely score 2 TDs in this one, with a good chance of also scoring a third. At 6-8, they’re changing quarterbacks in hopes it will spark a three-game run to get them into the playoffs. When they switched quarterbacks in Week 9 the team responded by scoring a season-high 28 points. Atlanta is favored by 1, with an over-under of 44 points.
Taylor Heinicke is back in at quarterback, with the team pulling the plug on Desmond Ridder. But expectations should be modest. Heinicke is a lesser, limited quarterback, and he didn’t have much success when the team turned to him earlier in the year. In about two games worth of action, he completed 55 percent of his passes, with 3 TDs and an interception. In his one full start (at home against Minnesota) he completed 21 of 38 for 268 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. The offense settled for 4 field goals in that game, losing against a quarterback who had been with the Vikings for less than a week. Heinicke threw for only 55 yards (1 TD) in three quarters the next week in Arizona before leaving with a hamstring injury. They lost that game too. You would think the plan here will be to run the ball, given the opponent.
The Colts have a bottom-10 run defense but have been average against the pass. Indianapolis has allowed 4 more touchdowns rushing than passing. If Heinicke can simply operate the offense and steer clear of sacks and turnovers, that should suffice. But that will mean lesser numbers. The Falcons have run for 130-plus yards six times this year, and they’ve averaged only 185 passing yards in those games, with 5 TDs. Heinicke is a crafty scrambler; he’s run for 68 yards in about two games worth of action this year. But he’s not as likely as Ridder to keep the ball himself around the goal line. In 24 starts with Washington the last two years, Heinicke averaged 215 passing yards, with 31 TDs and 21 interceptions. He averaged 16 rushing yards in those 24 games, with 2 TDs.
Bijan Robinson has played poorly in each of his last three games, carrying 35 times for 98 yards. That included averaging fewer than 3 yards per carry against two bottom-10 run defenses. But let’s not give up on Robinson just yet. He ran for over 90 yards and scored in each of his two previous games. He’s a talented guy. And this is an awfully soft run defense he’ll be facing. The Colts rank 26th against the run and have allowed 20 rushing touchdowns (2nd-most in the league). Falcons definitely will be looking to get him going, and they’re playing at home with their backs to the wall. Prior to this recent downturn, Robinson averaged 70 rushing and 24 receiving yards in his 10 full games, with 6 TDs.
The Falcons will work in Tyler Allgeier some; he’s actually run for more yards than Robinson in their last two games. But he’s not as talented or versatile, making him best suited for a supporting role. In Allgeier’s last 10 games as a backup behind Robinson, he’s averaged 38 rushing yards, with one touchdown. Robinson is a pass-catching weapon; he’s caught 41 passes and 3 TDs. But it doesn’t look like a great week in that regard. The Falcons should be running more and passing less, and Heinicke and Robinson couldn’t get on the same page when they played together earlier in the year. In about two games worth of action with Heinicke, Robinson caught 3 passes (out of 9 attempt) for 19 yards.
With the indicators suggesting the Falcons will be emphasizing the run, we’re slotting the pass catchers lower than usual. Atlanta has passed for 250-plus yards five times this year, but this won’t be one of those games. Drake London has gone over 120 yards twice, but in weeks that the team passed for over 300 (which isn’t happening). It should be a more modest game for him, and he hasn’t been a great scorer. In his last 10 games, he’s averaged 5 catches for 67 yards, but with just one touchdown.
The Falcons selected Kyle Pitts with the 4th pick of the 2021 draft, but they’ve been unable to get elite-type play out of him. He’s averaging 3.4 catches for 42 yards, with 2 TDs. In Heinicke’s one full game, Pitts caught 4 passes for 56 yards. The Falcons have another tight end, Jonnu Smith, whose numbers aren’t that different. Smith has also caught 2 TDs. After 14 games, Smith has 4 fewer receptions and 65 fewer yards. When Heinicke started against Minnesota, Smith posted his best numbers of the season (5 catches for 100 yards, with a 60-yard touchdown).
Atlanta’s other wide receivers are afterthoughts, but it should be pointed out that Scotty Miller caught 2 of the 3 touchdowns thrown by Heinicke earlier in the season – 2- and 8-yarders, with that pair seeming to have a rapport around the goal line. But Miller has caught only 8 passes all year.
Younghoe Koo has had a disappointing year, averaging only 6.9 points per week. He missed 2 key field goals in the loss against Tampa Bay. But we’ll put an above-average grade on him here. Despite those misses, Koo is still one of the best kickers doing it, and this is a promising matchup, with the Colts having a kicker-friendly defense (they’re allowing 8.4 points per week against the position). In Heinicke’s one full game this year, Koo scored a season-high 14 points.
It’s an above-average matchup for the Falcons Defense, with Gardner Minshew likely to chip in some ill-advised throws. But Atlanta doesn’t have much playmaking on that side of the ball, currently ranking in the bottom 10 in both takeaways and sacks. Atlanta doesn’t have a kick returner of note. (Cordarrelle Patterson has scored 9 TDs on kickoff returns, but he’s 32 and doesn’t have any 30-yard returns this year.)
This report is just a small snippet of the Week 16 edition of Fantasy Index Weekly, part of the In-Season Analyst package. The newsletter includes our player rankings and 20-plus pages of matchup previews, plus stat projections and custom rankings for the games being played this weekend.
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